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Golden Partyhat Discussion
Quick find code: 17-18-363-66235442
Zurthux
said
:
Here are my thoughts.... id like to hear yours
The only rare item that we have an official total for is the Christmas scythe and it was limited to 5000. less now of course. They are going for a little over 3b right now.
I don't have even the slightest clue as to how many golden party hats will enter the game but its going to be a lot more than 5000. its very safe to say over 25k and probably still safe to say over 50k tbh. but lets go with a conservative 25k. that's already 5 times the stock of the Christmas scythe.
Something that needs to be considered is the fact that ALL golden party hats will be owned by ACTIVE accounts. Where as hundreds if not thousands of Christmas scythes will probably never be seen again because they are on inactive accounts/banned accounts. My guess is way less than 1k scythes are actively traded.
There will be too much active supply, in my option, to ever break the 1B [long term (1 year)]
1B x 25k hats = 25 trillion market cap is there going to be that much gold chasing these hats?
impossible? no. highly improbably yes.
Short term on the other hand? I think the price will try to be run up by some very rich people in an effort to corner the market. ---> IE first couple of days of party hats entering the market. Then they will crash when people realize the supply is just too large.
If there is one thing rich people, in real life and in the game, are more afraid of than losing money its missing out on an opportunity to make a fortune. So its worth it for them to try to buy up all the stock weather or not it works out.
Ill just be happy with the one that I earn myself
Just a small correction, Holly wreath is limited to 1K and BSH is x6 rarer than Santa hat but the number is unknown, speculations are 2-3K however.
Here are my thoughts.... id like to hear yours
The only rare item that we have an official total for is the Christmas scythe and it was limited to 5000. less now of course. They are going for a little over 3b right now.
I don't have even the slightest clue as to how many golden party hats will enter the game but its going to be a lot more than 5000. its very safe to say over 25k and probably still safe to say over 50k tbh. but lets go with a conservative 25k. that's already 5 times the stock of the Christmas scythe.
Something that needs to be considered is the fact that ALL golden party hats will be owned by ACTIVE accounts. Where as hundreds if not thousands of Christmas scythes will probably never be seen again because they are on inactive accounts/banned accounts. My guess is way less than 1k scythes are actively traded.
There will be too much active supply, in my option, to ever break the 1B [long term (1 year)]
1B x 25k hats = 25 trillion market cap is there going to be that much gold chasing these hats?
impossible? no. highly improbably yes.
Short term on the other hand? I think the price will try to be run up by some very rich people in an effort to corner the market. ---> IE first couple of days of party hats entering the market. Then they will crash when people realize the supply is just too large.
If there is one thing rich people, in real life and in the game, are more afraid of than losing money its missing out on an opportunity to make a fortune. So its worth it for them to try to buy up all the stock weather or not it works out.
Ill just be happy with the one that I earn myself
Just a small correction, Holly wreath is limited to 1K and BSH is x6 rarer than Santa hat but the number is unknown, speculations are 2-3K however.
The action or process of causing so much damage to something that it no longer exists or cannot be repaired.
16-Nov-2021 13:42:18
H Rassy
said
:
Trip180 said :
Swift Punch said :
I don't think the intention is for them to be as rare as people might want them to be. When the og phats dropped they were considered worthless because everyone had so many of them. The only way these will grow in value to be anywhere near the old hats is through time of gaining new players and losing old players who have X number of them. I still wait at the general store for a phat. One day, one last phat will be sold to the general store, for me to rebuy.
I might be wrong but i remember some update from a long time ago where hats dont show up in the store anymore to combat rwit. That sounds like something from restricted trade era; so you’re probably right. I cannot for the life of me manage to catch Covid. Perhaps it's because I didn't get vaxxed? The travails of those lacking immunity.
Trip180 said :
Swift Punch said :
I don't think the intention is for them to be as rare as people might want them to be. When the og phats dropped they were considered worthless because everyone had so many of them. The only way these will grow in value to be anywhere near the old hats is through time of gaining new players and losing old players who have X number of them. I still wait at the general store for a phat. One day, one last phat will be sold to the general store, for me to rebuy.
I might be wrong but i remember some update from a long time ago where hats dont show up in the store anymore to combat rwit. That sounds like something from restricted trade era; so you’re probably right. I cannot for the life of me manage to catch Covid. Perhaps it's because I didn't get vaxxed? The travails of those lacking immunity.
16-Nov-2021 15:04:45 - Last edited on 16-Nov-2021 15:09:21 by Trip180
Miffdor
said
:
When I first heard the news, I thought I’d maybe try to get one on all my accounts. Then I re-read all the requirements and said eff that. If they’re anything less than about 100m each I won’t bother even on my main.
So, the price will dictate how many enter the game. If it is high, more people will bother – if it is low, lazy people like me who only half-play the game will just buy one in the GE. It should work as quite a nice feedback loop actually.
A few people have mentioned bots/alts. As I see it there are two options for them acquiring membership:
1.\tThey buy a bond, in which case the minimum cost of achieving a golden partyhat will be 30m + ~40m, so they’re hardly going to bother if the price drops below 100m.
2.\tThey pay about $70 for premier package … how much gp would $70 buy you on the black market?
So surely the bot option is unviable (unless prices stay high), or am I missing something? I fear buying membership is worthwhile for many alts and maybe bots too. They make money in other ways, not just the phat. I wouldn’t really know, however.
Anyway, it should be fun. I’ll try to get some phats from the ge. I cannot for the life of me manage to catch Covid. Perhaps it's because I didn't get vaxxed? The travails of those lacking immunity.
When I first heard the news, I thought I’d maybe try to get one on all my accounts. Then I re-read all the requirements and said eff that. If they’re anything less than about 100m each I won’t bother even on my main.
So, the price will dictate how many enter the game. If it is high, more people will bother – if it is low, lazy people like me who only half-play the game will just buy one in the GE. It should work as quite a nice feedback loop actually.
A few people have mentioned bots/alts. As I see it there are two options for them acquiring membership:
1.\tThey buy a bond, in which case the minimum cost of achieving a golden partyhat will be 30m + ~40m, so they’re hardly going to bother if the price drops below 100m.
2.\tThey pay about $70 for premier package … how much gp would $70 buy you on the black market?
So surely the bot option is unviable (unless prices stay high), or am I missing something? I fear buying membership is worthwhile for many alts and maybe bots too. They make money in other ways, not just the phat. I wouldn’t really know, however.
Anyway, it should be fun. I’ll try to get some phats from the ge. I cannot for the life of me manage to catch Covid. Perhaps it's because I didn't get vaxxed? The travails of those lacking immunity.
16-Nov-2021 15:06:35 - Last edited on 16-Nov-2021 15:08:42 by Trip180
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