I Lack Heart
said
:
if santa is as rare as you suggest, that makes black santa one of the rarest items in the game. 100k santas may have never been in the game, but this time people had hindsight of party hats to see how valuable they became. i did not play back then sadly so what ever i say of the time is just speculation looking at the price history of items and knowledge of collectors of early 04-06.
It's confirmed that there are only 1,000 Holly Wreaths in-game, and it was confirmed that the Black Santa Hat has a 1/2000 chance to be obtained from a Festive Cracker. On drop-rate, there would need to be 2,000,000 Fesitve Crackers over the 15 day period to bring 1,000 Black Santas into the game.
According to Wiki, Black Santa is second rarest discontinued since 2002 - but I'm unsure if this is an assumption as I don't believe the actual Black Santa numbers were released (only their drop-rate).
Taking the average number of players on 13th December 2019 (Festive Cracker was 13 December 2013 but stats don't go back that far) - there were an average of 35,000 players online constantly throughout the day (adding the most and least amount of players throughout the day).
2,000,000 Festive Crackers required to gain 1,000 BSH over 15 days = 133,333 daily Festive Crackers. That's 3.8 crackers required per day, per person, which sounds quite easy based on the average daily player count - so there are likely more than 1,000 BSH in the game, making Holly Wreath the rarest
Also, I appreciate more people will have kept hold of their Santa Hats in hindsight of other Holiday Items, and I completely agree that they are abundant in comparison to other Holiday Items - but even when I try agree that there were 100k in 2009, I honestly can't find any logic or statistics which would suggest 100k came into the game in the first place. That's the part I've been debating
Edit: maths, player & Festive Cracker stats, typos
if santa is as rare as you suggest, that makes black santa one of the rarest items in the game. 100k santas may have never been in the game, but this time people had hindsight of party hats to see how valuable they became. i did not play back then sadly so what ever i say of the time is just speculation looking at the price history of items and knowledge of collectors of early 04-06.
It's confirmed that there are only 1,000 Holly Wreaths in-game, and it was confirmed that the Black Santa Hat has a 1/2000 chance to be obtained from a Festive Cracker. On drop-rate, there would need to be 2,000,000 Fesitve Crackers over the 15 day period to bring 1,000 Black Santas into the game.
According to Wiki, Black Santa is second rarest discontinued since 2002 - but I'm unsure if this is an assumption as I don't believe the actual Black Santa numbers were released (only their drop-rate).
Taking the average number of players on 13th December 2019 (Festive Cracker was 13 December 2013 but stats don't go back that far) - there were an average of 35,000 players online constantly throughout the day (adding the most and least amount of players throughout the day).
2,000,000 Festive Crackers required to gain 1,000 BSH over 15 days = 133,333 daily Festive Crackers. That's 3.8 crackers required per day, per person, which sounds quite easy based on the average daily player count - so there are likely more than 1,000 BSH in the game, making Holly Wreath the rarest
Also, I appreciate more people will have kept hold of their Santa Hats in hindsight of other Holiday Items, and I completely agree that they are abundant in comparison to other Holiday Items - but even when I try agree that there were 100k in 2009, I honestly can't find any logic or statistics which would suggest 100k came into the game in the first place. That's the part I've been debating
Edit: maths, player & Festive Cracker stats, typos
04-Jul-2020 00:06:43 - Last edited on 04-Jul-2020 00:27:13 by 4p
- less than 1k
