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04-Jul-2020 10:12:11

4p said :

2,000,000 Festive Crackers required to gain 1,000 BSH over 15 days = 133,333 daily Festive Crackers. That's 3.8 crackers required per day, per person, which sounds quite easy based on the average daily player count - so there are likely more than 1,000 BSH in the game, making Holly Wreath the rarest
i cant find anywhere were jagex hinted towards there being 1 black santa to every 6 regular ones still in game, at the time the estimation was like 6500 bsh which to me sounds high looking at its price history. at the time of the event i bought mine for 145-160m each and didnt really pay attention to its price after that but.

i estimated about ~4000 as the daily party room drop parties and jmod events alone brought about 1k bsh in to the game and how easy they were to obtain during skilling.

i dont remember if it was festive crackers that were in sof as well for a moment, i remember there being complaints about that you could actually receive them just by paying. im probably mixing this with something else as my brain is a real sponge these days.

04-Jul-2020 11:00:22

If we consider this Tweet, 10 days into the event, it says that only 1/10th of Santa Hats in the game were black Santa hats:
https://twitter.com/JagexPips/status/417707959138148352

If we use the Holly Wreath comparison, creating exactly the same amount of Black Santas (although we can assume there are many more) we can work out the following based on my previous post:

- Black Santa is 1/2000 from a Festive Cracker
- We need 2,000,000 Festive Crackers, on drop-rate, to create 1,000 Black Santas
- The average player count on 13th December 2019 was 35,000 (we don't have data for 2013, so we will use this)
- The event lasted 15 days

From this, we can work out the daily average (based on 1,000 Black Santa Hats)
- We need 133,333... Festive Crackers each day, for 15 days
- This would create 66 Black Santa Hats each day
- The Tweet regarding 1/10th Santas being Black Santas was 10 days into the event
- That means, on day 10, there would have been 660 Black Santas in the game and 6,600 Red Santas in the game

I can't find anything regarding 6,500 Black Santas on day 10 unfortunately, but if that is true:

- On each day, 433 Black Santas would have been created
- On day 10, there would have been 4,330 Black Santas and 43,330 Red Santas

This would require a total of 13,000,000 Festive Crackers, meaning 25 daily Festive Crackers per person (on average) - so that seems a bit high


Now if we apply this to '100k+' Santas which I've been interested in debating. It's an obscure number, so let's say enough Santas were lost since 2009 that we end up with 100k Red Santas on the day of the tweet):

- 10k Black Santas on day 10 of the event (because 100k Santas, divided by 10)
- An average of 1k Black Santas each day
- A total of 15k black Santas across the event

This would require a total 30,000,000 Festive Crackers, meaning 57 daily Festve Crackers per person (on average)

You can scale this up and down as you wish. But we're not getting near 100k Red Santas

Edit: typo

04-Jul-2020 11:29:20 - Last edited on 04-Jul-2020 11:32:39 by 4p

For anyone else wanting to try work this out, based on 35k daily average players:

BSH Estimate * 2000 = Total Festive Crackers

Total Festive Crackers / 35,000 = Player Average Cracker Amount

Player Average Cracker Amount / 15 Days = Player Daily Average Amount


We know on day 10 that 1/10th of Santas in game were Black Santa Hats

Example based on 4,500 Black Santas:

4500 * 2000 = 9m Festive Crackers

9m / 35,000 = 257 Average Crackers per Player across the event

257 / 15 = 17 Average Daily Crackers, per person, per day


This means on day 10 there will have been 6,000,000 Festive Crackers, 3,000 Black Santa Hats, and 27,000 - 30,000 Red Santa hats in the game


Still seems a bit high to me, can't imagine every single player getting an average of 17 Festive Crackers per day... but I can't really comment on that, other than the method of gaining crackers:
https://runescape.wiki/w/Festive_cracker

Would be a real push for every single player to get 17 crackers a day, in my opinion

04-Jul-2020 11:45:22

04-Jul-2020 12:22:45

@krimandy1

Thanks for that - I wasn’t sure how to get an accurate amount. We can actually remove the player count altogether and still estimate what an ‘acceptable’ number would be.

If the claim is ‘100k+ Red Santa Hats’ in 2009, unless a massive amount was lost until 2013, we’ll keep it at 100k to make is easier

- 100k Red Santas on the 10th day of the Black Santa event = 10k Black Santas in 10 days (based on Jagex confirmation of 1/10 Santas were Black Santas on that day)
- 10k Black Santas in 10 days = 1k Black Santas a day
- 1k Black Santas a day = 42 Black Santas an hour
- 42 Black Santas an hour = 84,000 Festive Crackers an hour... and 42 Global Messages an hour, every single day, for 15 days, during the event


We keep seeing time and time again that, not only were there nowhere near 100k Santa Hats in 2009... there were never 100k Santa Hats in the first place.

You can change the above numbers based on how many Black Santas you believe is an acceptable amount for day 10, then multiply that number of Black Santas by 10 to estimate the approximate number of Red Santas on that day

04-Jul-2020 13:15:11

04-Jul-2020 14:04:49