RuneScape Forum Archive | ~Disc. Items Discussion v1~

Trip180

Posts: 16,702 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Mehu said :
H Rassy said :

Maybe i am wrong and many players are not as much attached to their hats like i am. [...]owning a partyhat is still a sort of end goal for many players and once they obtain one they wont sell anymore. There is no need for a normal player to ever sell a hat,everyone gets richer all the time.

Yes. If you buy a partyhat for a goal or keepsake people usually stop staring at the prices. You might check how it is going for every 6months or so but it requires a huge change in %wise if anyone bothers.

When it is time to get the next one or upgrade you'll usually just pay the extra 100-200m to a mercher and continue farming gp for the next one. It's also common for people to ride santas/scythes (or another rare or token even) up to riches, and then buy a phat.

A friend has 7 scythes. He's owned them since around their release date. He's been trying to get a phat back, after losing his. Those 7 are now worth roughly a yellow, if I'm not mistaken.

My point: People do merch their way up, one way or another. I cannot for the life of me manage to catch Covid. Perhaps it's because I didn't get vaxxed? The travails of those lacking immunity.

03-Jul-2020 09:14:12

nyxiah

Posts: 3,619 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

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I could agree with some things but imagine claiming that there are over 100K Santa hats in the game? That's just offensive to human intelligence.

I said "WAS". I am talking about the numbers in 2009.

Now, there's obviously way less, but there's still fewer Christmas scythes - I have even tested the GE supply by instantly buying 10 of each on multiple accounts, and I can definitely feel that the supply for Santas was way higher than for Scythe. I could barely move the price up 30m by instant buying Santas in the short period of time, while the price of Scythe moved 20-50m+ every 2 instant buys.

It's very obvious that the supply for Christmas scythe is low, and I am 110% positive that it's the next rare that will be out from GE. I can't tell when this will happen, could be this weekend, could be next month or next year, but it's definitely going to happen, especially since theres SO much gold in this game.

An inspiration to many, with a heart of gold. Be kind today, tomorrow and everyday!

03-Jul-2020 12:36:15

May

2016

I Lack Heart

Posts: 947 Gold Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

nyxiah said :
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Original message details are unavailable.
I could agree with some things but imagine claiming that there are over 100K Santa hats in the game? That's just offensive to human intelligence.

I said "WAS". I am talking about the numbers in 2009.

Now, there's obviously way less, but there's still fewer Christmas scythes - I have even tested the GE supply by instantly buying 10 of each on multiple accounts, and I can definitely feel that the supply for Santas was way higher than for Scythe. I could barely move the price up 30m by instant buying Santas in the short period of time, while the price of Scythe moved 20-50m+ every 2 instant buys.

It's very obvious that the supply for Christmas scythe is low, and I am 110% positive that it's the next rare that will be out from GE. I can't tell when this will happen, could be this weekend, could be next month or next year, but it's definitely going to happen, especially since theres SO much gold in this game.
probably will be next yeah, but i feel like items like scythe that in my personal opinion look terrible have value only because of the flipping potential and collecting, when it goes out of ge its gonna have really limited demand as i cant see anyone deliberately buying something like xmas scythen when i much rather use blood dyed nox.

but then again, personal opinions and of course scythe can always be taken out of the keepsake and sold unlike dyes, but to me thats little trade off compared to how terrible it looks to me.

03-Jul-2020 13:39:00

Dec

2007

4p

Posts: 967 Gold Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

nyxiah said :
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I could agree with some things but imagine claiming that there are over 100K Santa hats in the game? That's just offensive to human intelligence.

I said "WAS". I am talking about the numbers in 2009.

I agree with your Christmas Scythe analysis, but I'm struggling to understand the volume of Red Santa Hats.

Jagex dropped Santa Hats at random intervals, in random places on Christmas Day 2002. This was a manual process, and is important to note if we are considering the total volume: https://runescape.wiki/w/Update:Merry_Christmas

Considering the active player count in December 2002, I find it really difficult to believe that over 100,000 Red Santa Hats entered the game in the first place, let alone that amount in 2009.

I seriously doubt 100,000 even ended up on the floor throughout the day, and players in the 'right place, at the right time' only had 3 minutes to collect them off the floor, so it's even harder to imagine that there were 100,000 collected in the game throughout the day: https://runescape.wiki/w/Drop#Functions

If you said there were 50,000 in the game in 2009, I'd still find it hard to believe, but couldn't really contend it because it would be closer to the actual number and would be a more reasonable assumption.

Obviously what I've said above is my own speculation, but we can make assumptions based on past events that 100,000 likely didn't enter game in the first place, and a percentage of those that did enter the game were sold to shops (in the earlier days), dropped/lost, or are on inactive accounts that won't be retrievable.

I thought your first statement of 'over 100k' was a typo, but you've said it again, so it really does interest me - what makes you think there were ever 100,000 Red Santa Hats in the game?

03-Jul-2020 14:39:17 - Last edited on 03-Jul-2020 15:56:33 by 4p

nyxiah

Posts: 3,619 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

@I lack heart

I think people will always want to own all rares to collect and this might be the ultimate end goal for many.

Just like the disk of returning and half wine, these items are "useless" and you can't even wear them, but they still hold value. In this case rarity is what drives the price up.

But yes, Scythe is definitely the next item to hit max. It rose 400m overnight and is currently at 1.6b. That's only around 550m away from max.

An inspiration to many, with a heart of gold. Be kind today, tomorrow and everyday!

03-Jul-2020 14:43:34 - Last edited on 03-Jul-2020 14:59:23 by nyxiah

nyxiah

Posts: 3,619 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

@4p

We could use OSRS as an example. Mods spawned Santas on there too throughout the years (from 2013-2020) and there were other ways to obtain them too, but I remember as early as 2014 players having bulk amount of Santas back on OSRS. (from 2-6k amounts just as a single player).

Even tho' the spawn process is manual it's still very easy to activate. (Basically just a command and there's 100+ santas on the floor)

But mostly, what makes me believe that there was 100k+ Santas back in 2009 is the fact that i've just seen people with bulks throughout the years, and i've even owned a large amount before, but nothing compared to the real Chessy.

edit: another thing to note is how fast Scythe rose compared to Santa. This proves once again that the supply is indeed large for Santas.

Santa hat was ONLY 140m in 2016. That is dirt cheap for a rare from 2002, but the high supply explains it. That's why it always was so cheap.

Scythe was 85m after all 5k were released throughout the month, and has since just been rising.

This tells us that there was more Santas in game than Scythes.

An inspiration to many, with a heart of gold. Be kind today, tomorrow and everyday!

03-Jul-2020 14:58:57 - Last edited on 03-Jul-2020 15:12:09 by nyxiah

Dec

2007

4p

Posts: 967 Gold Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

@nyxiah

Technologies were very different back in 2002, so I don't think we could use that as an example. The reason I made a point of saying it's manual, and it was Christmas Day, is because that logically lowers the amount that would have entered the game.

Another point which would prove there are less than 100,000 in the game is if we look at Scythes:
The first batch of Scythes were dropped on 31 October 2003: https://runescape.wiki/w/Update:Halloween_Drop
A second, 'unplanned' batch of Scythes were dropped a few days later because people weren't online to get one in the first place, and Jagex received complaints: https://runescape.wiki/w/Update:More_Scythes_dropping_today

We can make the following assumptions:
1. If it was Andrew himself dropping Scythes during October 2003, we can assume it was just Andrew dropping Santa Hats (and other Holiday Items) in 2002
2. If the player-base was increasing exponentially (which is explained in the RuneScape Documentary on YouTube), we know that the player-base massively increased between 25th December 2002 - 31st October 2003 and beyond, meaning more people should have received a Scythe than a Santa Hat
3. If we know that the play-base massively increased in 2002-2003, and people complained they didn't get Scythe due to timezones and not being online, how many of the 'reduced player-base' in 2002 didn't get a Santa Hat on the one single day they were dropped in-game (which was on Christmas day so even less people online again)?

I personally can't speak for the amount of Santa Hats you've seen. Everyone knows the story about Chessy018 having a little over 1,000 Santa Hats at one point, but that doesn't reflect the total amount in the game during 2009.

If we think about it logically, 100,000 won't have entered the game in the first place.
- Christmas Day, one chance only. Random times/places.
- People upset they didn't get a Scythe with a massively increased player-base a year later

03-Jul-2020 15:29:46 - Last edited on 03-Jul-2020 15:55:35 by 4p

Dec

2007

4p

Posts: 967 Gold Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

I've just seen your edit and I do completely understand what you're saying about Christmas Scythes - I'm just interested in 100,000 Red Santa Hats

Edit: I also appreciate what you're saying about the price. It's relatively low for an item from 2002, which proves that there are many thousands in the game. My debate is specifically about the 100k+ number, because based on what we do know, and assumptions we can make, there can't have been 100k Santa Hats released into the game in the first place

03-Jul-2020 15:31:12 - Last edited on 03-Jul-2020 15:40:58 by 4p

nyxiah

Posts: 3,619 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

You got me off the track for a second - are you saying that a Mod was manually dropping them? because the RS wiki says"

The Santa hat is a tradeable discontinued item. Santa hats appeared randomly on the ground all over RuneScape on 25 December 2002, when players could pick up as many as they wanted "

An inspiration to many, with a heart of gold. Be kind today, tomorrow and everyday!

03-Jul-2020 15:50:04

Dec

2007

4p

Posts: 967 Gold Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

I've just realised none of my previous links have been working for some reason, I'll go back and try fix them.

To confirm, the assumption I'm making is that if Andrew Gower himself was manually dropping Scythes (by pressing a big shiny button of course!), we can make the assumption that previous drops were manual too: https://runescape.wiki/w/Update:Merry_Christmas

Scythes, one year later: https://runescape.wiki/w/Update:More_Scythes_dropping_today

He specifically says he'd quite like to get some sleep, which suggests he had to be at his computer. My point is that the Santa Hat drops may have been less frequent with it being Christmas Day

03-Jul-2020 15:54:48

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~Disc. Items Discussion v1~