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Destruction

Destruction

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nyxiah said :
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Original message details are unavailable.
I could agree with some things but imagine claiming that there are over 100K Santa hats in the game? That's just offensive to human intelligence.

I said "WAS". I am talking about the numbers in 2009.

Now, there's obviously way less, but there's still fewer Christmas scythes - I have even tested the GE supply by instantly buying 10 of each on multiple accounts, and I can definitely feel that the supply for Santas was way higher than for Scythe. I could barely move the price up 30m by instant buying Santas in the short period of time, while the price of Scythe moved 20-50m+ every 2 instant buys.

It's very obvious that the supply for Christmas scythe is low, and I am 110% positive that it's the next rare that will be out from GE. I can't tell when this will happen, could be this weekend, could be next month or next year, but it's definitely going to happen, especially since theres SO much gold in this game.

Hey, sorry for long wait, i'm available now.

I understand you said that there were over 100K santa hats in the game in 2009 which is also very far away from the truth. It doesn't matter what year you use in sentence as that never happened, not even on christmas in 2002. There were never over 100K santa hats in the game, especially not in 2009.

I agree about scythes and you are right about them, I was just commenting on your santa hat ''research'' which is extremely off.

Yeah, you might just be right about them. 5K isn't a very huge number and they are after all closest to being max cash stack. I'm not saying it will happen but they would be the closest one and I personally really, really like the look of it. I was surprised that some people don't like it, it's pretty damn good for me but yeah, not everyone is the same.
The action or process of causing so much damage to something that it no longer exists or cannot be repaired.

03-Jul-2020 16:01:22

nyxiah

nyxiah

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4p said :
I've just realised none of my previous links have been working for some reason, I'll go back and try fix them.

To confirm, the assumption I'm making is that if Andrew Gower himself was manually dropping Scythes (by pressing a big shiny button of course!), we can make the assumption that previous drops were manual too: https://runescape.wiki/w/Update:Merry_Christmas

Scythes, one year later: https://runescape.wiki/w/Update:More_Scythes_dropping_today

He specifically says he'd quite like to get some sleep, which suggests he had to be at his computer. My point is that the Santa Hat drops may have been less frequent with it being Christmas Day

Okay, are you sure that Santas weren't spawned AND dropped by the JMods for fun? because that is what was happening on OSRS. The hats were being spawned randomly around RS AND some jmods were dropping them too. This is what I was assuming happened in 2002 too, but sadly I wasn't playing back then to know the real fact, perhaps there is someone here who was playing back then and could tell us?
An inspiration to many, with a heart of gold. Be kind today, tomorrow and everyday!

03-Jul-2020 16:02:49

nyxiah

nyxiah

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@ Destruction

I am very interested in hearing your thoughts about why 100k Santas is impossible back in 2009? You seem to be very sure about this, almost as if you had the numbers! xD
An inspiration to many, with a heart of gold. Be kind today, tomorrow and everyday!

03-Jul-2020 16:05:27

I Lack Heart
May Member 2016

I Lack Heart

Posts: 947 Gold Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
nyxiah said :
@I lack heart

I think people will always want to own all rares to collect and this might be the ultimate end goal for many.

Just like the disk of returning and half wine, these items are "useless" and you can't even wear them, but they still hold value. In this case rarity is what drives the price up.

But yes, Scythe is definitely the next item to hit max. It rose 400m overnight and is currently at 1.6b. That's only around 550m away from max.
i did collect the older rares, mainly because they are old and collecting is fun. in my eyes black santa is the only 'new rare' out worth buying but i cant expect everyone to be similar hipster as me. anyway 65k santa hats was the estimation 2013 so 100k at 2009 might be little off. id say ~75k give or take, seen enough people with big collection to know how common rare it is.

03-Jul-2020 17:04:09

Shn
Aug Member 2023

Shn

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nyxiah said :
@ Destruction

I am very interested in hearing your thoughts about why 100k Santas is impossible back in 2009? You seem to be very sure about this, almost as if you had the numbers! xD

Destruction said :
I can assure you it's not even close.

It’s impossible to know how many Santa Hats are in the game without knowing the manner in which they were dropped. All the 2002 Christmas news post says is: “Merry christmas from the Jagex team. We're dropping some santa hats today at random intervals in random places.” Not actually helpful!

While the April 2003 Bunny Ears were the first drop to be untradeable, they are only the first drop after Santa Hats and there’s a pretty good likelihood that the logic for the events was the same, the only different being the latter item is untradeable. A Reddit post about the Bunny Ears drop says this:

Original message details are unavailable.
There was a poll in RSC for bunny ears, should Jagex do a holiday event? we could have a "pancake day" or Jagex could focus on RS2, players voted and we got bunny ears (back then you had a system message (a black box) which said "SYSTEM MESSAGE: HAPPY EASTER!&quot ;) and the floor was scattered with bunny ears. The shift to untradeable rares was that Jagex didn't want players complaining about "missing out".

Src: https://www.reddit.com/r/runescape/comments/7jb64y/my_first_experiences_of_runescape_2002/ Creator of RuneRares (no longer available). Been playing 15+ years.

03-Jul-2020 17:41:23

Shn
Aug Member 2023

Shn

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In RSC, the viewable area was a 20x20 grid (400 tiles in your viewing area).



If we make realistic assumptions, like the floor “being scattered” means 30% of the entire player’s view being littered with Santa Hats, this is already 120x hats. If we also assume this is happening 5 times an hour in different popular locations around RS for an entire day, this is 14,400 Santa Hats made. If these are indeed being dropped in populated areas it’s safe to say virtually every single hat was picked up.

If we assume 30 locations are being populated 10 times an hour this is 864,000 Santa Hats. The question then becomes: are they all getting picked up?

You’ll note that you can tweak assumptions to fit your narrative pretty easily. I definitely wouldn’t put the idea that there are 100,000 hats in game out of the question. The trading volume is less because of the hoarding. Creator of RuneRares (no longer available). Been playing 15+ years.

03-Jul-2020 17:41:33

Shn
Aug Member 2023

Shn

Posts: 406 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I Lack Heart said :

i did collect the older rares, mainly because they are old and collecting is fun. in my eyes black santa is the only 'new rare' out worth buying but i cant expect everyone to be similar hipster as me. anyway 65k santa hats was the estimation 2013 so 100k at 2009 might be little off. id say ~75k give or take, seen enough people with big collection to know how common rare it is.

That's a totally reasonable guess.

Though I honestly think the amount in game could range from 10k-500k. The range is too wide to narrow the estimate down to an error range of a few thousand. The error margin for a "how many Santa Hats are there in game" guess is just way too big.

You honestly need Jagex to come in and give a ball-park. Creator of RuneRares (no longer available). Been playing 15+ years.

03-Jul-2020 17:48:38 - Last edited on 03-Jul-2020 17:50:36 by Shn

Shn
Aug Member 2023

Shn

Posts: 406 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
EL1TE said :
I was around that time, I remember spending all day walking around and not finding one. A bunch of my friends never got one either so it wasn't that east to find.

That also doesn't mean that you were spending time in the areas where they were dropped. For instance, using my 14,400 estimate above, you may not have been in one of the areas where Santas were dropped and other people were.

I remember reading (though I don't have a source) that at the time mods would log in and have to manually trigger the event to drop the items. Given that there were only a few mods at that time, it's perfectly reasonable that you weren't at a location that a mod was when he spammed the drop command, though other players were.

Though what you said was helpful because it means that estimates >>100k are likely incorrect. Creator of RuneRares (no longer available). Been playing 15+ years.

03-Jul-2020 17:56:35 - Last edited on 03-Jul-2020 17:57:40 by Shn

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