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Radyi
Jun Member 2010

Radyi

Posts: 2,036 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Pkavidas said :
What do you guys think about the drop in activity on the forums (especially concerning lowers)?

It means they are losing steam, imo there are wayyyyyyy too many santas out there. Mass contributor to deaths coffers.

02-Aug-2020 14:25:38

4p
Dec Member 2007

4p

Posts: 967 Gold Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Mkmk4 said :
scythes at least 10x rarer than santas. Masks are also more rare than santas.

We know there are a maximum of 5,000 Scythes in-game: https://runescape.wiki/w/Christmas_scythe

Are you suggesting there are at least 50k Santas in-game too?

If so, you're also saying there are at least 7,500 Black Santa Hats...
10 days into the BSH event, 1/10 Santas in the game were Black Santas. (Confirmed by Jagex: https://twitter.com/JagexPips/status/417707959138148352). So that means on day 10 of the BSH event, you're saying there were 5,000+ Black Santas (500+/day)
The event ran for 15 days, so that would mean there are 7,500+ Black Santas in the game

500+ Black Santas a day means 20+ Black Santas an hour brought into the game
20+ Black Santas an hour means at least one Black Santa every 3 minutes

Every time someone got a Black Santa Hat, there was a global message '
Someone pulled their festive cracker and received a black Santa hat!


There were definitely not 20+ broadcasts an hour during the event, and therefore aren't quite 7,500 Black Santas in the game.... meaning your Red Santa Hat estimate is a little off (Hint: it's way off at 50k+)


You're right about Masks though! It goes without saying that there are less Masks in the game than Red Santa Hats :)

06-Aug-2020 00:41:13

Mkmk4

Mkmk4

Posts: 44 Bronze Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
4p said :
Mkmk4 said :
scythes at least 10x rarer than santas. Masks are also more rare than santas.

We know there are a maximum of 5,000 Scythes in-game: https://runescape.wiki/w/Christmas_scythe

Are you suggesting there are at least 50k Santas in-game too?

If so, you're also saying there are at least 7,500 Black Santa Hats...
10 days into the BSH event, 1/10 Santas in the game were Black Santas. (Confirmed by Jagex: https://twitter.com/JagexPips/status/417707959138148352). So that means on day 10 of the BSH event, you're saying there were 5,000+ Black Santas (500+/day)
The event ran for 15 days, so that would mean there are 7,500+ Black Santas in the game

500+ Black Santas a day means 20+ Black Santas an hour brought into the game
20+ Black Santas an hour means at least one Black Santa every 3 minutes

Every time someone got a Black Santa Hat, there was a global message '
Someone pulled their festive cracker and received a black Santa hat!


There were definitely not 20+ broadcasts an hour during the event, and therefore aren't quite 7,500 Black Santas in the game.... meaning your Red Santa Hat estimate is a little off (Hint: it's way off at 50k+)


You're right about Masks though! It goes without saying that there are less Masks in the game than Red Santa Hats :)

There was a SERVER wide message (global messages are red). There could have most certainly been 20+ broadcasts an hour over all of the worlds!. Also one thing you (and other ppl) forget when calculating the amount of santa hats released is the massive dupe that took place in 2003 which saw massive duplication of party hats and all discontinued items at the time. I stand by my statement that there are AT LEAST 50k santas in game. Or at least the evidence you provided is unsatisfactory.

06-Aug-2020 13:32:05 - Last edited on 06-Aug-2020 13:34:04 by Mkmk4

nyxiah

nyxiah

Posts: 3,619 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
@4p

"So over 15 days, there were 15 million festive crackers introduced. The black santa rate was confirmed at 1/2000, meaning that there (ROUGHLY) 7,500 black santa hats in game."
An inspiration to many, with a heart of gold. Be kind today, tomorrow and everyday!

06-Aug-2020 13:52:17

nyxiah

nyxiah

Posts: 3,619 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Original message details are unavailable.
@Raphtalia6


@Nyxiah

I’m literally using your numbers to tell you how impossible it is.

If there were 100k+ Red Santas in 2009, and Jagex confirmed that 1/10 Santa Hats were Black Santa Hats on 30th December 2013... how many Black Santa Hats are there?!

At a loss of 8181+ a year on average, we would have lost 32k+ Red Santa Hats by 30th December 2013

That means there were 6,800 Black Santa’s in the game, with 5 days of the event left... and that means, using your numbers specifically, and working out the average yearly loss, there would have been 10,200 Black Santa’s released into the game...

I’m certainly using my common sense, and using maths based on your numbers to work out how terrible inaccurate your ‘personal belief’ is
..

It's absolutely possible, as I mentioned earlier, 3k Santas being lost between 2003-2004 is realistic, you can't use any numbers because you don't actually have any valid real facts about how many there are, you're just assuming and then you base your numbers on that.

AS I mentioned earlier(again, which you chose to ignore) Jagex has lost a huge number of their players throughout the years, and since Santa is such an old item, it's most likely that a huge amount of them have been lost too, throughout the years.

Chessy ALONE, had 2k+ in 2009-2010, that's a HUGE amount, and at that time they were 11-17m+ that alone indicates that the supply was huge.

If you have ever worked with low volume items, then you would know how it works. Players have bought 200+ pieces of X 3rd age item, and ate the supply up, making the item almost non-buyable from GE..

Now if Chessy couldn't eat the supply up with 2k+ Santas, and them only being still 13-17m+, then well it's common sense, that the supply was HIGH.
An inspiration to many, with a heart of gold. Be kind today, tomorrow and everyday!

06-Aug-2020 14:02:25 - Last edited on 06-Aug-2020 14:12:35 by nyxiah

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