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4p
Dec Member 2007

4p

Posts: 967 Gold Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
nyxiah said :

It's absolutely possible, as I mentioned earlier, 3k Santas being lost between 2003-2004 is realistic, you can't use any numbers because you don't actually have any valid real facts about how many there are, you're just assuming and then you base your numbers on that.

AS I mentioned earlier(again, which you chose to ignore) Jagex has lost a huge number of their players throughout the years, and since Santa is such an old item, it's most likely that a huge amount of them have been lost too, throughout the years.

Chessy ALONE, had 2k+ in 2009-2010, that's a HUGE amount, and at that time they were 11-17m+ that alone indicates that the supply was huge.

If you have ever worked with low volume items, then you would know how it works. Players have bought 200+ pieces of X 3rd age item, and ate the supply up, making the item almost non-buyable from GE..

Now if Chessy couldn't eat the supply up with 2k+ Santas, and them only being still 13-17m+, then well it's common sense, that the supply was HIGH.

You said I can’t use any numbers because I don’t have ‘any valid real facts about how many there are’ - and that’s right, I don’t. Therefore I’m directly addressing your specific claim, because you seem to believe that you do have ‘valid facts about how many there are’:
- 100k+ Red Santa Hats in 2009
- 10k+ Red Santa Hats in 2020
- A loss of 90k+ Santa Hats between the years 2009-2020

I do agree that there are 10k+ Santa Hats in 2020, I don’t think that number is too far off, but to suggest explicitly that we lost 90k+ Red Santa Hats between 2009 - 2020 is absurd. I’m unsure what the years 2003-2004 has to do with that because that was nothing to do with your claim or my explanation. I’m talking about your claim of losing 90k+ Santa Hats in the years 2009 - 2020.

06-Aug-2020 15:15:51

4p
Dec Member 2007

4p

Posts: 967 Gold Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
@mkmk4

My bad, I read it as a global message.

Black Santa drop rate was 1/2000 for each Festive Cracker

50k Santas (and therefore 7,500 Black Santas) means 15,000,000 Festive Crackers over 15 days is 41,666 Festive Crackers an hour, on average, for 15 days

Obviously there’s no way of knowing but that does seem a little high to me

06-Aug-2020 15:21:54

nyxiah

nyxiah

Posts: 3,619 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
4p said :
nyxiah said :



-H.

You said I can’t use any numbers because I don’t have ‘any valid real facts about how many there are’ - and that’s right, I don’t. Therefore I’m directly addressing your specific claim, because you seem to believe that you do have ‘valid facts about how many there are’:
- 100k+ Red Santa Hats in 2009
- 10k+ Red Santa Hats in 2020
- A loss of 90k+ Santa Hats between the years 2009-2020

I do agree that there are 10k+ Santa Hats in 2020, I don’t think that number is too far off, but to suggest explicitly that we lost 90k+ Red Santa Hats between 2009 - 2020 is absurd. I’m unsure what the years 2003-2004 has to do with that because that was nothing to do with your claim or my explanation. I’m talking about your claim of losing 90k+ Santa Hats in the years 2009 - 2020.

Good, so you agree.

I never said that I have "valid" facts. It's what I personally believed, based on my experience in the market since 2006.

I used the year 2003-2004 as an example, since Santa didn't have a huge value back then, and people were treating it like junk = easier to just throw around, alch, drop, etc, which means it was easier to "lose" a Santa in the earlier years.

Santas were only 9-13m in 2009, you could slightly compare that price to the AGS in OSRS since they are 11m and check how many are traded daily on the GE - It shows that 5-7k are traded DAILY. The supply is high.
An inspiration to many, with a heart of gold. Be kind today, tomorrow and everyday!

06-Aug-2020 15:38:29

nyxiah

nyxiah

Posts: 3,619 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
4p said :
@mkmk4

My bad, I read it as a global message.

Black Santa drop rate was 1/2000 for each Festive Cracker

50k Santas (and therefore 7,500 Black Santas) means 15,000,000 Festive Crackers over 15 days is 41,666 Festive Crackers an hour, on average, for 15 days

Obviously there’s no way of knowing but that does seem a little high to me

This was discussed before.

" I did the math and I must say I was rather surprised. In order to find out how many black santas there were in the game, I took the total member count from the last page of the hiscores. At the time this was 489k, but to make it easier and account for some people getting more then others, i rounded to 500k. So now that we have a sample size, say everyone got 2 crackers per day (a very rough estimate, there is no way to know for sure how many there were). So over 15 days, there were 15 million festive crackers introduced. The black santa rate was confirmed at 1/2000, meaning that there (ROUGHLY) 7,500 black santa hats in game."

" But remember... 400 crackers per world per day were also introduced .."

" In my best day I got a total of 18 crackers while skilling! That is besides the 5 other crackers I got from dailies/cryptic/partyroom.
It is quite possible that there are many players who got at least 2+ crackers while skilling. I have never gone a day without at least 2-3 crackers from skilling additionally to the dailies "
An inspiration to many, with a heart of gold. Be kind today, tomorrow and everyday!

06-Aug-2020 15:44:03

PackingLips
Nov Member 2018

PackingLips

Posts: 162 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I really don’t think the 90k that Nyxiah, is out of the question. You have to remember that EOC came out in 2012. Hundreds of thousands of runescape accounts were logged out and lots never returned. I was one of those people, I quit with a few rares. I happened to come back but out of my friends list, most of those people never returned. I know that many of them had lower rares for sure and of course they can always return. But at this moment they have not, so those rares are essentially lost.

06-Aug-2020 15:56:43

4p
Dec Member 2007

4p

Posts: 967 Gold Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
@Nyxiah

Alright, let’s say 7,500 Black Santas were released into the game. On day 10, there was an average of 5,000 Black Santa hats, and therefore 50,000 Red Santa Hats

You’ve said in 2009 there were 100k+ Santa Hats

Where did the other 50k+ disappear to between 2009-2013?

06-Aug-2020 16:01:50

4p
Dec Member 2007

4p

Posts: 967 Gold Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
PackingLips said :
I really don’t think the 90k that Nyxiah, is out of the question. You have to remember that EOC came out in 2012. Hundreds of thousands of runescape accounts were logged out and lots never returned. I was one of those people, I quit with a few rares. I happened to come back but out of my friends list, most of those people never returned. I know that many of them had lower rares for sure and of course they can always return. But at this moment they have not, so those rares are essentially lost.

I completely understand this concept and I fully accept it... it’s just that the number is way too high when you consider how Discontinued Items came into the game, and have been removed from the game over the years :)

06-Aug-2020 16:55:23

Raphtalia6
Oct Member 2017

Raphtalia6

Posts: 1,134 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
im confused why are we comparing normal santas with black santas? black santas were introduced in 2013 if i read the wiki correctly. but i thought santa's were from the early rs years.

also did jatex confirm the 7500 black santas?

There were alot of santa hats ingame at the start cant go around that sinds they were cheap to buy.

later on their price increased over the years because people liked the item and because alot of accounts got banned for botting or they just left the game to play osrs/another game.

santa hats are now like more than 100 times more expensive. but that doesnt mean were 100 times more back in the day. it just means they get more attention in the present while back in the day no1 cared for them. simply put we can give an item an amount and a price. but if no1 cares it will drop like a fly. trusting certain pc lists or prices of items or websites that dont belong to jagex will get you into trouble notice: external websites and trades are your responsibility, dont get fooled!.

06-Aug-2020 17:56:51

4p
Dec Member 2007

4p

Posts: 967 Gold Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Raphtalia6 said :
im confused why are we comparing normal santas with black santas? black santas were introduced in 2013 if i read the wiki correctly. but i thought santa's were from the early rs years.

also did jatex confirm the 7500 black santas?


Because, on 10 day of the Black Santa Hat event, Jagex sent out a tweet saying that 1/10 Santa Hats in the game were Black Santa Hats:
https://twitter.com/JagexPips/status/417707959138148352

Jagex never confirmed 7,500 Black Santa Hats, but you can make a guesstimate on how many Red/Black Santas there are based on the tweet.

If someone says "There were 100k+ Black Santa Hats in 2009" - you can kinda guess how many there would be in 2013.
Consider that on day 10 of the Black Santa Hat event, 1 in 10 Santa Hats were Black Santas - you'd think, based on 100k+ Santas in 2009, that there would have been 10k Black Santa Hats on day 10.
The event lasted 15 days, so that would make 15k Black Santa Hats released into the game. This number is obviously way too high, and therefore 100k+ Red Santa Hats in 2013 (or even in 2009) is way too high.


You can work backwards with that scenario too.

If someone says "There were 7,500 Black Santas released into the game" - that's an average of 500/day over 15 days. That would mean 5k Black Santa Hats on day 10, and that would mean 50k Red Santa Hats on 30th December 2013.

Take a number you find to be acceptable for either BSH on 30th December 2013, and you can work out how many RSH there were on that day.
Take a number you find to be acceptable for either RSH on 30th December 2013, and you can work out how many BSH there were on that day.

Quick examples of possible amount on 30th December 2013 based on BSH numbers over 15 days:
2k BSH total = 13.3k RSH
3k BSH total = 20k RSH
4k BSH total = 26.6k RSH
5k BSH total = 33k RSH
6k BSH total = 40k RSH
7k BSH total = 46.6k RSH
8k BSH total = 53.3k RSH
9k BSH total = 60k RSH

etc etc...

06-Aug-2020 18:27:53

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