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~Disc. Items Discussion v1~
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@Raphtalia6
I think it's quite difficult to get an exact amount, but you can always get an estimate - which is what I've trying to say all along.
To make a bold claim such as "There were definitely X amount of X item at a certain time", or someone else who said "Scythe is 10x rarer than RSH" means those people would be agreeing to all sorts of different amounts of other Discontinued Items. But when you start to work it out, you see how accurate/inaccurate that number is based on many other aspects.
dafda1111111 asks a very valid question "Are there really more Black Santa Hats in the game than Scythes?"
Another question would be "Are there more Black Santa Hats in the game than Wreaths?"
We know how many Scythes there are (up to 5k) and we know how many Wreathes there are (up to 1k). If we say that BSH sits somewhere between Wreath and Scythe in terms of rarity, we can go back to my calculation:
Quick examples of possible amount on 30th December 2013 based on BSH numbers over 15 days:
1k BSH total = 7,500 RSH
2k BSH total = 13.3k RSH
3k BSH total = 20k RSH
4k BSH total = 26.6k RSH
5k BSH total = 33k RSH
6k BSH total = 40k RSH
7k BSH total = 46.6k RSH
8k BSH total = 53.3k RSH
9k BSH total = 60k RSH
I personally never claim to know the numbers, but I do take information available online to work out what is actually possible.
You do have to factor in losses over time, but this applies to all Discontinued Items and is really quite difficult to measure. You can say, however, that if fewer BSH were released into the game than Scythes then there were fewer than 33k Red Santas on 30th December 2019 - and after losses over the past 11 years, there will now technically be less than 33k active Red Santa Hats in the game.
This then directly challenges both claims I've been trying to address:
- "There were 100k+ Santas in 2009"
- "Scythe is 10x rarer than Red Santa Hat"
It's extremely unlikely that either of those claims are true based on what I keep saying
I think it's quite difficult to get an exact amount, but you can always get an estimate - which is what I've trying to say all along.
To make a bold claim such as "There were definitely X amount of X item at a certain time", or someone else who said "Scythe is 10x rarer than RSH" means those people would be agreeing to all sorts of different amounts of other Discontinued Items. But when you start to work it out, you see how accurate/inaccurate that number is based on many other aspects.
dafda1111111 asks a very valid question "Are there really more Black Santa Hats in the game than Scythes?"
Another question would be "Are there more Black Santa Hats in the game than Wreaths?"
We know how many Scythes there are (up to 5k) and we know how many Wreathes there are (up to 1k). If we say that BSH sits somewhere between Wreath and Scythe in terms of rarity, we can go back to my calculation:
Quick examples of possible amount on 30th December 2013 based on BSH numbers over 15 days:
1k BSH total = 7,500 RSH
2k BSH total = 13.3k RSH
3k BSH total = 20k RSH
4k BSH total = 26.6k RSH
5k BSH total = 33k RSH
6k BSH total = 40k RSH
7k BSH total = 46.6k RSH
8k BSH total = 53.3k RSH
9k BSH total = 60k RSH
I personally never claim to know the numbers, but I do take information available online to work out what is actually possible.
You do have to factor in losses over time, but this applies to all Discontinued Items and is really quite difficult to measure. You can say, however, that if fewer BSH were released into the game than Scythes then there were fewer than 33k Red Santas on 30th December 2019 - and after losses over the past 11 years, there will now technically be less than 33k active Red Santa Hats in the game.
This then directly challenges both claims I've been trying to address:
- "There were 100k+ Santas in 2009"
- "Scythe is 10x rarer than Red Santa Hat"
It's extremely unlikely that either of those claims are true based on what I keep saying
07-Aug-2020 08:01:03
Finance
said
:
It doesn't matter how many santa hats are on active accounts. It matters how many hats are in active circulation (held by people who are willing to sell them). Prices are set at the margin.
Correct, but we haven't been discussing the prices at all, we've been discussing the volume.
It doesn't matter how many santa hats are on active accounts. It matters how many hats are in active circulation (held by people who are willing to sell them). Prices are set at the margin.
Correct, but we haven't been discussing the prices at all, we've been discussing the volume.
07-Aug-2020 21:32:21
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