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4p said :

https://runescape.wiki/w/Update:More_Scythes_dropping_today

" I will be dropping Scythes at:

Sunday 4pm (Eastern US Time)
Sunday 5pm (Eastern US Time)
Sunday 6pm (Eastern US Time)
Sunday 7pm (Eastern US Time)

and then I'll be going to sleep! "

If we follow 4p's valid comment about the Santa hats not being dropped with a batch job, but manually as was done October 2003, we have a very different story of how many Santa hats were created in December 2002.

And honestly, this is the more likely scenario:

I say it's the more likely scenario relative to automated drops because if in October 2003 Andrew Gower was still issuing drops manually, then they certainly were in December 2002. This means that Andrew was logging in and hitting a "drop" command at random periods throughout the day.

This brings the figure down to 5-30k Santa hats released.

Again, these are my estimates for amount of Santa hats created if the drops were automated ( which clearly is not the case given 4p's comment):

Given all the data, my honest, final estimate, is that there were approximately 10k Santa hats truly added to the game in December 2002.

Creator of RuneRares (no longer available). Been playing 15+ years.

03-Jul-2020 21:09:47 - Last edited on 03-Jul-2020 21:14:15 by Shn

@Shn

Thank you so much for this. This is why I kept repeating that "It was Christmas Day, and it had to be done manually, in the office." which is a huge factor!

Then we fast forward to 2009. When many accounts have been lost. Many accounts have died with their Santas. Many Santas sold to the General Store... and many high-alched for fun

Obviously a Santa Hat is globally recognised so people will have been more careful with them over the years. There were/are thousands in the game, but not as many as people might think

03-Jul-2020 21:18:59

03-Jul-2020 21:37:25

nyxiah said :


edit: also something important I mentioned earlier which has been ignored:

Halloween scythes are not exactly in the same boat since you only could obtain one, so the system did change throughout 2002-2003.

My point is that they indeed did change something in their system, to allow players to only have 1 Halloween scythe.

If you clicked on a Scythe, and you already owned one, you couldn't pick it up. What does that have to do with how the second Scythe spawned in front of you? Why does that mean Santa Hats were spawned differently?

Picking an item up off the ground, and a JMod spawning items in-game are two completely unrelated game mechanics.

nyxiah said :


I think Easter eggs and pumpkins had the same spawn system as Santas:

" The drop occurred all around Gielinor on 31 October 2001, marking the 2001 Hallowe'en event. During the Hallowe'en event of 2001, pumpkins were found scattered around various towns and areas at different times during the day."

You're 100% correct - (we can assume that) all Holiday Items had the same spawn system. And that spawn system was cryptically revealed over different news posts. Mainly, the Scythe gives some good indication:

https://runescape.wiki/w/Update:More_Scythes_dropping_today

In particular the fact that we all live in England means unfortunately people in Western US are asleep whilst we are in the office, and able to login to the game to drop items.

Why would they specifically say in the office ?

I'm not going to stay up all night to do it, because I have to sleep, but instead I'll do 4 drops at specific times.

...
and then I'll be going to sleep!

Why would he need to be awake if it's automated?

If Holiday Items in 2003 weren't automated, how and why were Santas automated?

Shn's graph gives data based on if it was automated, and 100k+ isn't realistic.

03-Jul-2020 21:58:41

le me said :
Hugh why do you people even bother making all these theories? Just wish jagex would release the numbers already to stop all these pointless discussions zzz

You are partially correct. Through reasonable assumptions we can come up with a ball-park that is very accurate. It is nice to do know ball-park how many are in game, no? If someone claims that there are 7 million Santas in game how would you refute that?

Also, maybe try to come up with reasons why you disagree with the data and arguments presented? It would have a lot more to offer.

Tuffty said :
If Jagex released any numbers it would just aid in manipulating of said items.

I can't ever see Jagex release numbers of any rares.

It's a secret that will last a long long time.

Do you re-call anything in particular about the Santa drop? Creator of RuneRares (no longer available). Been playing 15+ years.

03-Jul-2020 22:12:13 - Last edited on 03-Jul-2020 22:23:23 by Shn

nyxiah said :
@Shn

I appreciate your time for making the graphs, but 5-30k seems too small of a number, especially if Chessy alone owned 2k+ before being hacked and still not being able to move the price much. At this time Santas were 19m. This alone indicates that the supply was HIGH.

As an example we can use the big 3rd-age buyout/hoard from 2013. A single player bought 230 3rd age mage skirts and the price rose from 19m to 100m+ - Because he bought all of the supply.

I have been around rare and low volume items for ages, there's no way someone would be able to own 2000 Santas without moving the price at least 30%. Even if we are assuming only 10k were active at that time.


I understand what you're trying to say with the 3rd Age Rob Bottoms. Buying out almost 100% of an item, and the price skyrocketed. Chessy had around 1k (confirmed) Santas and you've said it didn't seem to affect the price.
I don't know the timeline of events, but on 17th June 2009 there is a video of Chessy with 500 Santas, and in August there is a video of her with 1000 Santas. They doubled in price in the second half of that year, and doubled in price during the first 2 months of the following year. Then doubled again within 4 months. I'm no market expert, but a Purple Phat was 364m and a Santa was 123m. (6th June 2010). Purple Phat increased 3.5x value, Santa increased 8x value in the same time period, even though there are hardly any phats in the game compared to Santas. Could this be related?

It's not enough of a reason to flat-out say "There are 100k+ Santa Hats in the game" - especially based on how Santas got into the game in the first place*. Have you ever looked into this properly? I'm guessing not since you just say it's personal belief and you've seen bulk Santas in trade

*Manually, by a JMod, in the Jagex Office, on Christmas Day 2002

Edit: clarification

03-Jul-2020 22:18:55 - Last edited on 03-Jul-2020 22:21:00 by 4p