Won't be able to read past/future posts, so hopefully this doesn't get lost in the muck.
There are many factors going into this and any involvement by special groups storing mass value will greatly influence these prices. Not considering this factor, there are a few key things to consider...
1. Jagex is trying to decrease rare demand by introducing items such as gold phat, green santa, and the new scythe + wreath- all of which look very similar to some highly valued discontinued rares
2. Most players and farmers are holding the gold phats they have atm due to two main reasons. First being that normal players recognize this as their only chance to get their hands on the iconic item of a party hat and second being farmers/investors understand the long-term reward of holding these kinds of discontinued investments, especially when you have the party hat stable slapped on top.
3. Many investors do not want to miss out on this opportunity. There are many items that have dipped recently due to investors liquidating their holdings to free gp up to buy these hats. It's pretty obvious any purchase around 200m would be a great long-term investment and so far it has not approached this price since it is worth the short-term loss to buy a little higher just to make sure you have a decent stock in case things get cray.
I don't actively follow this market and only took a peek while on break, but I'd be very surprised if there is not a dip/crash coming up since so far prices have been pretty conservative to match long-term investor expectations. I don't see this item leaving the G.E. due to the massive volume and people all waiting to cash out. That being said, any price up to ~2147m is possible since G.E. price can be manipulated with the fraction of the actual supply present on this exchange.
Whatever you decide to do, always remember to enjoy your time in this world.
Cheers!
31-Dec-2021 03:47:58