RuneScape Forum Archive | Golden Partyhat Discussion

Jan

2017

Lelouch Vi B

Posts: 2,111 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

RSGOTMEFATT said :

Comparing fish masks to a discontinued golden partyhat might not be the best comparison, try black santa hat which went from 250m to 20b+. i remember the price because i was buying them heavily around the 250m to 300m range in 2014.

This is a terrible comparison. You completely leave out the context of what happened that day. a J mod revealed that black santas were more rare than normal santas. The rarity is what made the value go up. When people thought they were more common, they had significantly less value.

Read the news article on the golden phat; jagex literally designed it so that everyone will get one if they just put in a little effort. These won't be rare. I easily see them under 100m before the end of the event as people start making their own. Currently, only the hardcore grinders have made them. but as casual players start getting their last shards, they will pour into the market as they try to cash out for less and less.

While the fish mask isn't a good direct comparison, it isn't far off. Most players never actually won a fish mask off of SOF. The vast majority of them came from a slim population of whales who binge bought keys. It's likely that there are less masks than active players in the game.

This hat has the potential to be significantly more common because there can be at least 1 per player with minimal effort (let's be honest, there are people with multiple accounts getting multiple of these too). Is it likely they'll be more common than fish masks? I don't think so. But I also don't see them being much rarer either. Everyone who wants one will just make it instead of buying it. When this happens, where does the market to sell these go? Where's the value?

Anyone who reads the Q&A from the news article will have zero faith that these items will remain rare. Now with added
[SARCASM]
Warnings for those less astute!

Archaeology Elite Skill Suggestion

03-Dec-2021 02:10:59 - Last edited on 03-Dec-2021 02:27:15 by Lelouch Vi B

Jan

2017

Lelouch Vi B

Posts: 2,111 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Married Life said :
Xsoulshadow said :
Only 1 per account and that's IF the account gets lucky 5-6 times. My prediction is in time, it will be worth a lot.

Not sure what luck has to do with obtaining the Phat. I have obtained more Hats then I care to admit and each time it was under 20 hrs, so you don't really need anything besides time to obtain one.

You are correct though, they will go up with time.

Yeah it's quite clear how few people actually read the news article on this. They put in a bad luck protection that increases your odds of getting a shard EXPONENTIALLY over time. I got all 8 of my shards in 1 day just afking.

I think there's just a lot of people hoping that this will be their "party hat moment" where they get the item that'll be worth billions later; It's not.

Just a direct quote from the golden phat news article for anyone who didn't read it but is still claiming these will be rare.

Q: Some of the shards come from drops but I have terrible luck. What is the likelihood I won’t be able to finish it?

A: Slim! While there is an element of RNG to collecting the shards, they also have in-built 'bad luck' protection. As you continue to train a skill or complete clue scrolls, the likelihood of getting a shard grows exponentially. Essentially, it's our intent that players who are actively playing throughout this event will be able to create their own hat without too much worry

This is literally the "build your own phat!" event. Everybody gets one. Now with added
[SARCASM]
Warnings for those less astute!

Archaeology Elite Skill Suggestion

03-Dec-2021 02:18:44 - Last edited on 03-Dec-2021 03:02:39 by Lelouch Vi B

Jan

2017

Lelouch Vi B

Posts: 2,111 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Mgamer said :
A lot of people really dont get it. These hats dont have to reach 50b. All that has to happen is for them to reach 1b after the event is over and every single person who grinded out phats for 400-500m will be reduced to slave labor. Merchers will have made the exact same money as them by doing absolutely nothing. 50b in gphats vs 50b in another rare. Which one do you think will double in price first?

You've made the fatal mistakes of believing that the hat has already stabilized (it's not even close. It will drop long before that). And believing that in the game of rares, value only goes up. The gamble isn't "buy 50b in ghats and wait for them to reach 100B" because that isn't a gamble. The gamble is buy a ghat for 500m and hope it doesn't drop to 50m. Modern rares are not great investments as a whole. Most of them are way too common; the vast majority have had no guarantee that they won't rerelease. These tend to just be a stepping stone for lower value players to hopefully one day get into classic rares, where values do only go up for the most part. Yeah, you can get lucky on modern rares, people do everyday; but people also lose millions/billions on them regularly too.

I'd say if you can get your hat done quick, cash out quick. Put in an offer to buy it back at whatever it's worth to you and you'll probably get it back by the end of the event. If not? Make an alt and spend a day making a new one. There's literally no risk to selling now, but there's massive risk in buying now. Now with added
[SARCASM]
Warnings for those less astute!

Archaeology Elite Skill Suggestion

03-Dec-2021 02:53:57

May

2020

01 Partyhat

Posts: 92 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

2 bill for said :
01 Partyhat said :
Your numbers are off. I bought my first partyhat (a red one) for 18m in 2004 after rs2 was released. Red and yellow were the cheapest ones at the time. I know this for a fact because my irl was quitting runescape and I asked him for the gp he had on one of his accounts (10m) because that's how much I needed to add to my gp to be able to afford my very first partyhat.
Found some info.

Looking at these numbers, prices didn't go crazy in the rares market til about late 2005. So my prices would have been more for ~early to mid 2005 when I bought rather than august 2006.

That might be my mistake. It may have been in 2005 when they made rs classic p2p only. I do know for a fact I paid 18m for a red hat. It was on rs classic and honestly I can't say if prices on rs classic were the same as rs2. I know bots were picking up big time after the release of rs2 and that could have driven the rares prices up possibly faster than they did on rs2? The botting problem was the whole reason they made rs classic p2p only.

Disregard my previous post. The more I think about it I realize it for sure wasn't 2004.

03-Dec-2021 03:53:57

Mar

2019

2 bill for

Posts: 67 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

RSC prices were definitely different, pretty much all the collective wealth of the entire playerbase disappeared. Player profiles were automatically moved to rs2 on release with a grace period to transfer back to RSC. Jagex gave almost no attention to classic after that, it was like 90% bots. Low # of players with lots of gold coming in game hence higher prices. RIP to the rares that stayed behind in classic O_o

I think the low prices rares and high value of gold in 2004 rs2 really shows how much botting and rwt affect the game economy. rwt was in it's infancy. rs2 bots were terrible. so wealth really only came from working for it, everyone was on a relatively level playing field.

I'm willing to bet the spike in price of rares coincided with botters finally deobfuscating the rs client, whereas before that it was basically screen capture and color clickers, now they could inject and send commands directly into the client. merch clans and ge also played a huge role later on.

getting off topic reminiscing. anyways.

a lvl 56 stranger asked me for 30m loan for 5 mintues to get his last shard because he was worried the price was crashing. ever wary of a scam ofc i didnt do it but that's a glimpse into the mentality of ppl who have never had this much gold. this hat really could change their rs life!

03-Dec-2021 05:20:53

Oct

2023

Mgamer

Posts: 313 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Lelouch Vi B said :
Mgamer said :
A lot of people really dont get it. These hats dont have to reach 50b. All that has to happen is for them to reach 1b after the event is over and every single person who grinded out phats for 400-500m will be reduced to slave labor. Merchers will have made the exact same money as them by doing absolutely nothing. 50b in gphats vs 50b in another rare. Which one do you think will double in price first?

You've made the fatal mistakes of believing that the hat has already stabilized (it's not even close. It will drop long before that). And believing that in the game of rares, value only goes up. The gamble isn't "buy 50b in ghats and wait for them to reach 100B" because that isn't a gamble. The gamble is buy a ghat for 500m and hope it doesn't drop to 50m. Modern rares are not great investments as a whole. Most of them are way too common; the vast majority have had no guarantee that they won't rerelease. These tend to just be a stepping stone for lower value players to hopefully one day get into classic rares, where values do only go up for the most part. Yeah, you can get lucky on modern rares, people do everyday; but people also lose millions/billions on them regularly too.

I'd say if you can get your hat done quick, cash out quick. Put in an offer to buy it back at whatever it's worth to you and you'll probably get it back by the end of the event. If not? Make an alt and spend a day making a new one. There's literally no risk to selling now, but there's massive risk in buying now.

The problem with you is you're assuming way to much about me and you're price speculating just like everybody else. Except, you think your speculation is fact.

03-Dec-2021 08:05:22

Destruction

Posts: 63,021 Emerald Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Lelouch Vi B said :
RSGOTMEFATT said :

Comparing fish masks to a discontinued golden partyhat might not be the best comparison, try black santa hat which went from 250m to 20b+. i remember the price because i was buying them heavily around the 250m to 300m range in 2014.

This is a terrible comparison. You completely leave out the context of what happened that day. a J mod revealed that black santas were more rare than normal santas. The rarity is what made the value go up. When people thought they were more common, they had significantly less value.

Read the news article on the golden phat; jagex literally designed it so that everyone will get one if they just put in a little effort. These won't be rare. I easily see them under 100m before the end of the event as people start making their own. Currently, only the hardcore grinders have made them. but as casual players start getting their last shards, they will pour into the market as they try to cash out for less and less.

While the fish mask isn't a good direct comparison, it isn't far off. Most players never actually won a fish mask off of SOF. The vast majority of them came from a slim population of whales who binge bought keys. It's likely that there are less masks than active players in the game.

This hat has the potential to be significantly more common because there can be at least 1 per player with minimal effort (let's be honest, there are people with multiple accounts getting multiple of these too). Is it likely they'll be more common than fish masks? I don't think so. But I also don't see them being much rarer either. Everyone who wants one will just make it instead of buying it. When this happens, where does the market to sell these go? Where's the value?

Anyone who reads the Q&A from the news article will have zero faith that these items will remain rare.

I agree with most of the things but they will never reach 100M mark.

The action or process of causing so much damage to something that it no longer exists or cannot be repaired.

03-Dec-2021 08:27:44

Nov

2023

The Atlantis

Posts: 508 Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

@LELOUCH V1 B

Everything you said is basically nonsense.

First, the majority of hats have already entered the game/been created.

All the casual players/who login daily to play have already obtained the shards and gotten their Phat. It's been 2 weeks now.

It's funny how you are assuming that a lot more hats will enter the game, when that's untrue. The only hats entering the game now, is those from the few players who have made alts to collect few.

The majority has already entered the game, and the price is at 500m. Why can't you open your eyes and see how the price reflects the supply?

Jagex has made this event for everyone, but that doesn't mean everyone wants to bother with it. For some, it's simply too much effort and they are lazy. Especially the RS3 player base who's used to being lazy and just buying everything.

A lot will just buy the hat instead of bother collecting the shards, even if it "only" takes 20 hours.

Jagex has not designed it so everyone WILL get one as just state, Jagex has made it so everyone CAN get one if they grind.

The best comparison is actually the Black Santa hat, because value wise it had a very similar price to Golden Phat on release, and that tells us a lot about the supply.

Fish masks were 2-5m on release, you simply can't compare that to a unique 500m item

03-Dec-2021 10:31:10

Feb

2023

2147483647PO

Posts: 171 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

The Atlantis said :
@LELOUCH V1 B

Everything you said is basically nonsense.

First, the majority of hats have already entered the game/been created.

All the casual players/who login daily to play have already obtained the shards and gotten their Phat. It's been 2 weeks now.

It's funny how you are assuming that a lot more hats will enter the game, when that's untrue. The only hats entering the game now, is those from the few players who have made alts to collect few.

The majority has already entered the game, and the price is at 500m. Why can't you open your eyes and see how the price reflects the supply?

Jagex has made this event for everyone, but that doesn't mean everyone wants to bother with it. For some, it's simply too much effort and they are lazy. Especially the RS3 player base who's used to being lazy and just buying everything.

A lot will just buy the hat instead of bother collecting the shards, even if it "only" takes 20 hours.

Jagex has not designed it so everyone WILL get one as just state, Jagex has made it so everyone CAN get one if they grind.

The best comparison is actually the Black Santa hat, because value wise it had a very similar price to Golden Phat on release, and that tells us a lot about the supply.

Fish masks were 2-5m on release, you simply can't compare that to a unique 500m item

You have made a good analysis.
i am aggree with u, but who know 100%
I am from that lazy

03-Dec-2021 11:57:57 - Last edited on 03-Dec-2021 11:59:08 by 2147483647PO

Mar

2014

ELITE STACK

Posts: 8,082 Rune Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Jagex confirmed thousands entered the game first 3 days of the event which meant at least 2-3k. With yak track there are thousands more Id probably say theres 13-15k hats now. Alot of ppl are still making them as long as price remains high. I need my blue charms back.

03-Dec-2021 14:01:37

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Golden Partyhat Discussion