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Golden Partyhat Discussion

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Yo Blue
Sep Member 2007

Yo Blue

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The amount of gold phats in the game for me a good buying price would be around 75m and a good selling price for me would be around 140m.

Just have to wait till it hits the 75m target first.
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04-Jun-2022 18:40:59

The Atlantis
Nov Member 2023

The Atlantis

Posts: 508 Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
H Rassy said :
The golden partyhat has failed i have to admit. It is back near its previous lows.

The game just doesnt get new players in large enough amounts to make anything happen and i dont see that ever change anymore. The updates they do not attrackt new players.

I wonder who buys all the pvm drops as i dont see how they can hold their price in a situation like this. Where does all this demand come from?
At this point i am thinking jagex simply places some orders in ge now and then to keep their price up and keep prevent the game collapsing for the endgame players as well.
Maybe that is also partially the reason for the inflation in past few years.


It was literally only released few months ago.. and I wanna bet at least 20% of the supply is already non-active. I still think that we will see a spike later this year. Right now it's just the same low-iq people selling if they see a 5m spike lol

Golden phat is a unique rare imo, so just give it time.

04-Jun-2022 19:54:43

The Atlantis
Nov Member 2023

The Atlantis

Posts: 508 Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Yo Blue said :
The amount of gold phats in the game for me a good buying price would be around 75m and a good selling price for me would be around 140m.

Just have to wait till it hits the 75m target first.

This won't happen, don't let unrealistic goals keep you away from making real profit. Golden Phat will never drop lower than the 200-250m range, and it's pretty clear that it will rise in the future like all discontinued items

04-Jun-2022 19:57:13

H Rassy
Sep Member 2023

H Rassy

Posts: 17,469 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
The question i have is who is selling at these prices?
It cant be collectors taking a profit and flipping them for 5m isnt a net sale either.
Maybe its people who have farmed a lot of them and are still slowly selling ?

There is lots of people buying them obviously. I cant be the only one right lol?
But the price is flat. If look at it from a distance then not much is happening and its basicly stable. But that is with i asume quiet a few people slowly stocking up on them.

i doubt it will go below 200 and i do expect it to be well above 300 before the end of summer but will see. There is definitely enough hats to go around for now.

05-Jun-2022 02:44:52 - Last edited on 05-Jun-2022 02:45:35 by H Rassy

Dr Goldfire
May Member 2012

Dr Goldfire

Posts: 2,553 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
People barely understand the difference between nominal and real prices. Those who have been around for long enough to remember conditions from, for example, 10 years ago when rares were nominally roughly 50 times cheaper or 15 - 16 years ago when they were 500 - 1000 times! cheaper, and understand the difference would hardly sell a gph for 200s m.

Therefore when I am about to sell or buy I ask myself whether I'd do that in 2012 for current price / 50.

The above also applies to other items, like cheap tokens that are frequently rereleased, but on the other side, would you ever bother selling an item that would have been 50 - 100gp ea back in 2012 (back then I didn't pick up drops that were in 100s of gp) or literally 1 - 10gp in 2006 - 2007? Even if it should be on alt accounts, GE slots can be used in a more meaningful way and make higher profits than selling tokens for current 5 - 10k, which is literally the value as stated above.
Everything, ranging from sub-atomic particles to galaxy clusters, has its dynamics predefined. And then there are people claiming that systems like economy, society or other human sub-systems are in our hands.

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05-Jun-2022 07:02:50 - Last edited on 05-Jun-2022 07:24:17 by Dr Goldfire

H Rassy
Sep Member 2023

H Rassy

Posts: 17,469 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
This is a decent aproach that i like. Though there is other things to consider as well.
Hats for example maybe went times 50 since 2012 but many other items did not.
Best armor around 2012 was virtus and torva i think,which was way over 1b for a full set at time of release. The best armor now doesnt cost 50b. Then there is more things,like the removal of duel arena which are difficult to judge.

2012 was when scythes was released ? (cant be bothered to look it up). I remember buying a lot of scythes for around 50m ea which would be 2.5b ea now. This actually does line up with the factor 50.

100k ? golden partyhats vs 5k scythes. At time of release the market is flooded with them and the price is at its lowest. Scythes and gpd should behave similar in this aspect so we can more or less directly compare scythes for 50m vs gph for 250m , taking a factor 50 for inflation and correct for rarity.

Based on this a GPH would have costed 2.5m on release in 2012 (50m/20). If we then apply a factor 50 inflation you would come at a GPH value of 125m.
GPH is a better item then scythe i think so it could be higher valued. But based on this the valuation does not seem all that cheap.

(you could also take the scythe price now and devide it by 20,which would be an easier way to get to 125m).

05-Jun-2022 10:03:58 - Last edited on 05-Jun-2022 10:19:41 by H Rassy

Dr Goldfire
May Member 2012

Dr Goldfire

Posts: 2,553 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Of course there are several more variables to be considered. What I am stating is just a simplified example which I think is still closer to real values than the nominal prices are currently at. It can't stand solely on the release numbers, but also on actual release amounts / active market circulation ratio, overall gp circulation state a little bit of fundamental features (like sentimental / personal value) etc.

Thing is that when any of the mentioned (or not mentioned) circumstances are temporarily over / under - estimated, then real prices tend to lag behind nominal which creates opportunities for future profits.
Everything, ranging from sub-atomic particles to galaxy clusters, has its dynamics predefined. And then there are people claiming that systems like economy, society or other human sub-systems are in our hands.

A girl without freckles is like a night without stars.

05-Jun-2022 10:39:37

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