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New Years
Oct Member 2021

New Years

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I think there should be a change with the confirmed phat rule. As I was moving the compile list of Confirmed phat trades, I had finished the list and posted. Shortly after Ferenc told me I had to remove a lot of the trades because some of the Confirmed trades were with kos.

After Ferenc and I reviewed all the trades, 11 Phat Confirmed trades were removed from the compile list because they were 'Kos Confirm + Non Rank Confirm'.


I think this rule should to be looked at and maybe changed or have specifics to which Phat confirmed trades can and can't count because those 11 confirmed trades would have been key in updating the ranges of hats.
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27-Mar-2016 03:42:01 - Last edited on 27-Mar-2016 03:42:31 by New Years

Ferenc2017

Ferenc2017

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^ I agree this is a real problem. Especially when there aren't many sale reports.

From some KOS i know the trades are legit. Still they can't be used.

If we make a new rule about this i prefer a clear one without exceptions.

I think we should only blacklist known street-trade manips/fakers from compilations. This is the best solution for a clear and easy rule. This would be separate from the KOS list.
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27-Mar-2016 03:56:00 - Last edited on 27-Mar-2016 04:05:26 by Ferenc2017

poppa

poppa

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hello everyone and thanks for this f.c. i used it yesterday and found it a little helpful but a little confusing,because i did not read the rules lol.sorry i have now and i wanted to comment/question about post 1.2 "Party Hats (Below Max Cash):[Purple/Yellow/Green]"
should that be updated?
thanks again

27-Mar-2016 18:10:19

Hyles
Feb Member 2023

Hyles

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poppa said :
hello everyone and thanks for this f.c. i used it yesterday and found it a little helpful but a little confusing,because i did not read the rules lol.sorry i have now and i wanted to comment/question about post 1.2 "Party Hats (Below Max Cash):[Purple/Yellow/Green]"
should that be updated?
thanks again


You are correct. When the front page was updated last year, the Purple, Yellow, and Green Party Hats were still below max, but obviously that is far from the case now. Thanks for pointing out the mistake, we can try to get Lyra to fix it when she get's a chance! :)
~Hyles~

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28-Mar-2016 06:23:30

S z
Sep Member 2021

S z

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Original message details are unavailable.
A few points.

[...]

3. Ranges are a different kettle of fish to normal GE pcs**** pcs are a last known trade, which is often a good indicator because all trades are done by considering all other offers. With out-of-GE trades, you get extremes as people don't consider all offers, only the ones they see. So taking the most recent trade is a bad guess. Looking at the last few trades creates a lag as happens here, especially when you update ranges rarely, so they're also not reflective of the current price. People are generally aware that's the case, including the people who are fighting against it.

There are a couple of alternatives I can think of, but they have drawbacks:
- always update the range after a hat trade is reported, considering the last X trades (problem: agreeing on a range isn't that easy sometimes, and this would need to be made better)
- report the last X trades instead of a range (which a lot of people tend to look up anyway - problem: lots to type when pcing)

The first suggestion wouldn't really be feasible as you said (but it would be nice). For transparency Quark uses open discussions in a public clan chat, and accept a majority vote on a range (this sometimes takes 5 minutes but it has also taken over an hour for a single range before). The frequency of hat trades is too much (we'd be constantly in a discussion in the evenings).

The second suggestion is a lot of typing, but maybe a moving average would be okay (say an average of the last 5 trades). This has the drawback of making it harder to PC (and indeed, harder to learn to PC), since you need to keep track of recent street trades. It also may not achieve the goal of having more representative prices. (continued)
Andy Murray to win Wimbledon 2022.

02-Apr-2016 17:02:18

S z
Sep Member 2021

S z

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(continued) For example: the yellow trades yesterday were 3275 3350 3275 3337.5 3325 3320 3300 3325 3475
giving a 5-point moving average of 3350, whereas R Quark ranks who trade hats suggested a more representative price would be closer to the 3475 trade. Alternative sources who claim to have pc's which lag less: Alessde's 3430; Jellosh estimated 3600-3700.

I don't think there's an ideal way to pc hats, and i think people who trade them should do their own research. Quark's system has the benefit in that it is transparent, doesn't depend on hearsay (which is unrelaible), is contributed to in a public clan chat by anyone, and has a closely monitored system in place to ignore potentially manipulated trades.

The R Quark yellow range of 3275-3375 should be read as "recently yellow has traded in the range of 3275-3375", and shouldn't claim to reflect the "live" pc. (In the same way that GE pc's are just a "last reported" price.)
Andy Murray to win Wimbledon 2022.

02-Apr-2016 17:09:38 - Last edited on 02-Apr-2016 17:58:58 by S z

S z
Sep Member 2021

S z

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Original message details are unavailable.
My suggestion is that none of the phat-to-phat trades are included in range setting discussions. I know many will think this takes away even more of the already sparse reports on these items, but my opinion is that they are more often actually detrimental to the updating process rather than helpful.

Food for thought :)

That's a lot of trades we'd potentially lose :S. Would it be better if they were recorded as the upgrade (e.g. P+100) and then when purple (for example) is upgraded, we use the new purple range to pc the trade? Ofc the hat upgraded-from wouldn't always be updated, but when it is, I'd say using the new, most recent range is good.
Andy Murray to win Wimbledon 2022.

03-Apr-2016 19:38:12

S z
Sep Member 2021

S z

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@New Years, Ferenc

Trips said :
Rule is that updates aren't taken from any kos. Lurers and scammers inhumanely get their rares, so they aren't afraid to dump for prices the average person can't buy at. Most trolls and manips can't be taken seriously so why should their updates be trusted? I know there are a few cases where some kos people don't really fit into the categories and should have 'special exceptions' but it doesn't look good for the fc if we allow certain kos people to be in the fc giving updates.

I don't think trolls' or spammers' trades should be taken for these reasons. Known manips obviously excluded. Imo there would have to be a good reason to start accepting trades from someone on kos: maybe lurer who merches and trades a lot of hats? But then in the small number of cases where we'd be confident that the trade is legitimate, is that enough to make a significant impact on the speed of updating ranges?

I can't think of many people who would fit here: one or two maybe. If you want to PM me names feel free (or reddit pm me), cause god forbid I hurt the lurers' feelings by naming and shaming here ;)
Andy Murray to win Wimbledon 2022.

03-Apr-2016 19:47:12 - Last edited on 03-Apr-2016 19:55:23 by S z

Scope I
Aug Member 2023

Scope I

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S z said :
Original message details are unavailable.
My suggestion is that none of the phat-to-phat trades are included in range setting discussions. I know many will think this takes away even more of the already sparse reports on these items, but my opinion is that they are more often actually detrimental to the updating process rather than helpful.

Food for thought :)

That's a lot of trades we'd potentially lose :S. Would it be better if they were recorded as the upgrade (e.g. P+100) and then when purple (for example) is upgraded, we use the new purple range to pc the trade? Ofc the hat upgraded-from wouldn't always be updated, but when it is, I'd say using the new, most recent range is good.


My point, which you didn't quote from the original post, was that a phat upgrade/downgrade hardly provides any additional information about the intrinsic value of the item in question. It merely gives information about the spread between phats, which often is a redundancy to a prior price quotation (or even backwards looking in many cases).

For this reason, I think they should be excluded. Currently we are updating phats every 3-5 new trades anyways, so not sure removing the limited number of these "false indications" will result in worse ranges. In fact, I think it would likely lead to *better* ranges.

Great discussion so far, thanks for the input! :)

03-Apr-2016 21:46:49

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