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Hyles
Feb Member 2023

Hyles

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Scope I said :
S z said :
Original message details are unavailable.
Snip

That's a lot of trades we'd potentially lose :S. Would it be better if they were recorded as the upgrade (e.g. P+100) and then when purple (for example) is upgraded, we use the new purple range to pc the trade? Ofc the hat upgraded-from wouldn't always be updated, but when it is, I'd say using the new, most recent range is good.


My point, which you didn't quote from the original post, was that a phat upgrade/downgrade hardly provides any additional information about the intrinsic value of the item in question. It merely gives information about the spread between phats, which often is a redundancy to a prior price quotation (or even backwards looking in many cases).

For this reason, I think they should be excluded. Currently we are updating phats every 3-5 new trades anyways, so not sure removing the limited number of these "false indications" will result in worse ranges. In fact, I think it would likely lead to *better* ranges.

Great discussion so far, thanks for the input! :)


An idea that I have been pushing for a long time and will bring up again, because it can't hurt to at least vote on it, is having a one number PC for items above Max GP. I feel that it would be much easier to update because, by weighing the most recent trades most heavily, you can easily arrive at a PC that most of the trades have been around. It also would be easier to update with fewer reports since you don't have to create a high end and a low end as you do with a range. Plus, with only one number, people would be less likely to accuse us of having outdated PCs. As soon as more than one trade is reported outside of the range, we are accused of having an outdated range. With a one number PC, it is simply a rough valuation of what the item was trading for in the recent past.
~Hyles~

"The man who acquires the ability to take full possession of his own mind
may take possession of anything else to which he is justly entitled."
~Andrew Carnegie

03-Apr-2016 23:27:47 - Last edited on 03-Apr-2016 23:38:53 by Hyles

Hyles
Feb Member 2023

Hyles

Posts: 6,699 Rune Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
An example of a one number PC:

Over the course of 1 week we receive the following trades (these are just examples and should are in no way accurate or representative of the current street value of any item):

2570 / 2540 / 2550 / 2600 / 2620 / 2600 / 2650 / 2700 / 2670 / 2650

When weighing the most recent trades most heavily, and the less recent trades less heavily, I think we could more quickly come to a consensus on a one number PC.

For example, I would suggest something like ~2625.

This removes the discussion/argument over low and high ends completely. Typically the arguments are over 25m on the high or low end, and by having just a "middle" value (not necessarily the average or median since you must weigh the most recent trades more heavily) I think it would be much easier to come to an agreement quickly.

Plus, with just a single value PC, it is more difficult for the PC to become "outdated" since all the PC is stating is that the recent trades were around that value, whereas a range gives the impression that current street trades have been confined to those minimum and maximum extremes, which often is not the case.

I feel that using this method, we do not have to worry about ignoring more reports, such as those trades where one hat is traded for another hat plus some GP or trades of that nature, due to the fact that the PC would be more easily updated using fewer trades. You do not have to have enough trades to come up with a definitive high end and low end for the range, you just have to find an approximate "middle value" for the most recent reports.

Please let me know what you think of this!!!
~Hyles~

"The man who acquires the ability to take full possession of his own mind
may take possession of anything else to which he is justly entitled."
~Andrew Carnegie

03-Apr-2016 23:35:06 - Last edited on 03-Apr-2016 23:40:54 by Hyles

Aecka
Aug Member 2020

Aecka

Posts: 233 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I agree with reporting of hat for hat trades as upgrades (p+100 for example) not only would this help with updating ranges more quickly (to reflect the market) it is extra detail that is always helpful and relevant to consider when researching to make decisions, if r quark is comitted (as I beleive they are) to giving accurate, timely non bias prices, this change should be a no-brainer as using mid of range just leads to misinformation. This change alone would improve r quarks ranges significantly.
AECKA

04-Apr-2016 03:02:12 - Last edited on 04-Apr-2016 03:10:38 by Aecka

Trips
Oct Member 2014

Trips

Posts: 1,766 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Scope I said :
S z said :
Original message details are unavailable.
block of text

Another block
Phat upgrade/downgrade hardly provides any additional information about the intrinsic value of the item in question. It merely gives information about the spread between phats, which often is a redundancy to a prior price quotation (or even backwards looking in many cases).
Although I agree with what you're saying, I think a possible change could be to allow the traders to agree on a value of their trade when upgrading/downgrading. Most people trading would likely be able to value both hats and the shards/gp before completing the trade. It would give more trust to the general public and would lead to more honest reports I think. I know manips/kos would take advantage of the change but to any normal person it'd seem pretty reasonable.

04-Apr-2016 06:05:26 - Last edited on 04-Apr-2016 06:08:02 by Trips

Trips
Oct Member 2014

Trips

Posts: 1,766 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Hyles said :

Please let me know what you think of this!!!
Tbh just having an average would still lag behind the street pc quite a bit. It would be faster to update, but also lose the transparency as it'd be hard to know if trades were repeated for a # point average. It seems like it would an only effective way would be to always have running lines of trades on the thread in which would likely be more helpful than just an average.

04-Apr-2016 06:13:04 - Last edited on 04-Apr-2016 06:14:53 by Trips

S z
Sep Member 2021

S z

Posts: 16,741 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Aecka said :
I agree with reporting of hat for hat trades as upgrades (p+100 for example) not only would this help with updating ranges more quickly (to reflect the market) it is extra detail that is always helpful and relevant to consider when researching to make decisions, if r quark is comitted (as I beleive they are) to giving accurate, timely non bias prices, this change should be a no-brainer as using mid of range just leads to misinformation. This change alone would improve r quarks ranges significantly.

I think we'd have to still use mid-range, but if we always update low-to-high then by the time we update yellow (say) we can use the new purple range for the valuation of a P+100: using the old purple range doesn't make any sense really, imo.
Andy Murray to win Wimbledon 2022.

04-Apr-2016 13:59:33

S z
Sep Member 2021

S z

Posts: 16,741 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Hyles said :
An idea that I have been pushing for a long time and will bring up again, because it can't hurt to at least vote on it, is having a one number PC for items above Max GP. I feel that it would be much easier to update because, by weighing the most recent trades most heavily, you can easily arrive at a PC that most of the trades have been around. It also would be easier to update with fewer reports since you don't have to create a high end and a low end as you do with a range. Plus, with only one number, people would be less likely to accuse us of having outdated PCs. As soon as more than one trade is reported outside of the range, we are accused of having an outdated range. With a one number PC, it is simply a rough valuation of what the item was trading for in the recent past.

It's definitely worth discussing at the next rank session to see what the other ranks say. I like the ranges since they give more information about where hats are traded, while being "vaguer" in the sense that we're "approximating" the price rather than giving a precise number. I'm not inherently against the idea; there can be some silly discussions about how wide to make the range, which are pointless. :P
Andy Murray to win Wimbledon 2022.

04-Apr-2016 15:31:03 - Last edited on 04-Apr-2016 15:33:27 by S z

Swiss Mafia

Swiss Mafia

Posts: 838 Gold Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
No matter how you track it, no matter how you analyze it, no matter how you report it, garbage data is garbage data. IMO, the player-to-player data obtained for items over max cash is garbage. There is no way to independently verify it, there are plenty of incentives for dishonest reporting, and it is known that players report fake trades between alts and between their friends. How prevalent is the problem? Who knows.

You are spending a lot of time and energy collecting, analyzing and reporting data that is suspect at best. I know the FC does it's best to only use data it feels is accurate, but there really is no way of knowing for sure which trades are real and which aren't. Soooo....

I have made this suggestion privately to members of the admin team: I suggest that a maximum of 2 trades involving any player be considered in any range update. This would limit the amount of influence that any player could have on a range, should their reports be dishonest.
Former PCer and rank in the "R Quark", "TH Rares PC" and "Nex and SS" Friend's Chats. Now independently operating.

04-Apr-2016 16:49:14

S z
Sep Member 2021

S z

Posts: 16,741 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Swiss Mafia said :
I have made this suggestion privately to members of the admin team: I suggest that a maximum of 2 trades involving any player be considered in any range update. This would limit the amount of influence that any player could have on a range, should their reports be dishonest.

If someone has the intention of influencing the range, I don't think this would stop them, unless it came along with a "report trades on your main account" rule.

Btw did you ever see this Dardad? 373-374-210-65763178
Andy Murray to win Wimbledon 2022.

04-Apr-2016 18:58:00 - Last edited on 04-Apr-2016 19:02:55 by S z

Aecka
Aug Member 2020

Aecka

Posts: 233 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
S z said :
Aecka said :
I agree with reporting of hat for hat trades as upgrades (p+100 for example) not only would this help with updating ranges more quickly (to reflect the market) it is extra detail that is always helpful and relevant to consider when researching to make decisions, if r quark is comitted (as I beleive they are) to giving accurate, timely non bias prices, this change should be a no-brainer as using mid of range just leads to misinformation. This change alone would improve r quarks ranges significantly.

I think we'd have to still use mid-range, but if we always update low-to-high then by the time we update yellow (say) we can use the new purple range for the valuation of a P+100: using the old purple range doesn't make any sense really, imo.
yes this is what I intended to imply average of the range at time of range updating rather than the range at time the trade occurred.
AECKA

04-Apr-2016 22:16:22

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