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465798359gjk

465798359gjk

Posts: 1,078 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Ok. I talked to Trips and he confirmed that if a range trade occurs between a FC rank and a player that is KOS in the FC, and the KOS player confirms, under the current rules the trade is confirmed and is used in the next range determination.

This seems to be a discrepancy to me. If the rank’s trade can’t be used without a confirmation, why does a KOS player’s confirmation count? Above trips stated: “Lurers and scammers inhumanely get their rares, so they aren't afraid to dump for prices the average person can't buy at. Most trolls and manips can't be taken seriously so why should their updates be trusted?”

So if their prices aren’t representative and/or they can*t be trusted and their updates for all other items are rejected, why is the FC letting their confirmation count for anything on a range trade? It just doesn’t make sense.

Edit: It appears that this rule is an artifact from when ranks did not need confirmation. Let me put it this way. You are essentially saying sorry rank, we don't trust you enough to accept your range trade without confirmation, but if you can get someone from our KOS list who we don't trust at all to confirm that, we'll accept it.

03-Nov-2015 23:45:31 - Last edited on 05-Nov-2015 10:19:33 by 465798359gjk

S z
Sep Member 2021

S z

Posts: 16,741 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Just out of interest....

10 point moving average: 2189 / 2274 / 2418 / 3020 / 4169 / 6099
5 point moving average...: 2193 / 2286 / 2391 / 3041 / 4137 / 6153.


some trades may be missed, i just took trades from compilers - elf and dp rawx, also blue only uses the 8 trades cause i got bored of going back through the thread Andy Murray to win Wimbledon 2022.

08-Nov-2015 22:59:56

Brad 76

Brad 76

Posts: 1,380 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Suggestions for a move to average instead of range in no particular order.

Option 1

Averages updated with every trade
Formula (New Confirmed Trade + 9x the current average / 10 = New Average
Pros : Very up to date and current price on max cash items, enough placed into the formula (+ 9x the current average) to mitigate most of the damage by a "fake" or "intentional manipulation attempt".
Cons : Having to work the formula on every confirmed trade would be cumbersome on the pcer or the one tasked with creating the new average after every trade.

My overall opinion on this option : Would remove almost all "bickering" that surrounds the current system of determining and maintaining "ranges", would keep the pcs of the max items much more current and flexible to the ups and downs that come with every item in runescape, formula to set an average could be done by anyone that has a calculator. I'm afraid that trying to update the average pc on every confirmed trade will be to cumbersome to those who are pcing or whoever is tasked with giving "permission" for new average price.

09-Nov-2015 03:18:47

Brad 76

Brad 76

Posts: 1,380 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Option 2

Average updated once a day (daily average) updated at approx. game daily reset time
Formula : Average would not change unless there was at least 5 confirmed trades on item, otherwise daily average would remain the same, and those trades would count toward the next day until there are at least 5 confirmed trades. If there are a total of at least 5 confirmed trades and no more than 10 those trades would be used to come up with the new daily average and any more over 10 would be used towards the next days total.
Formula: 5 - 10 confirmed trades + up to 5x the current daily average to get to 10 / 10 = new average ( 6 new trades + 4x daily average / 10 = new average for an example)

(Alternative to this would be to update it once a day no matter how many confirmed trades there are using the current pc as many times as necessary to get to 10 then simply divide by 10 to create the new daily average)

Pros: Updating the items once a day would still make the pcs much more current but would be much less cumbersome to the pcer or person tasked with updating them, would greatly simplify the current system of how we update ranges, would once again be simple enough to update by anyone that has a calculator and would be often enough in high traffic times to keep our pc relevant, would also almost completely mitigate any "fake" or "manip" attempts by using a total of 10 trades to create the new average.
Cons : At this point I can't think of any.

My overall opinion of this option: I believe that this is the most viable option on changing to a new system. Creates a much more current pc, reduces us down to a simple average price instead of a range, and mitigates as much as possible the damage that could be done by manipulation attempts. Moving towards an average pc would make our pcs much more relevant in times that there is a lot of activity.

09-Nov-2015 03:18:55 - Last edited on 09-Nov-2015 04:00:13 by Brad 76

Brad 76

Brad 76

Posts: 1,380 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Option 3

Averages updated with every 10 confirmed trades
Formula 10 confirmed trades / 10 = New Average
Pros : Still would be a much simpler formula on how we come up with a new pc, would move us to a one number average instead of a range on items over max.
Cons : Having to wait until there are 10 confirmed trades could take some time maybe creating opportunities where our pcs aren't relevant to current trades.

My overall opinion on this option : This option is the most simple, has the least amount of change to our current system with the obvious exception that we are producing one a single average pc instead of a range. Even though I believe this isn't the best of the options, it does still move us to a single pc without changing hardly anything else.

09-Nov-2015 03:19:03 - Last edited on 09-Nov-2015 03:50:56 by Brad 76

Brad 76

Brad 76

Posts: 1,380 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
A few thoughts to summarize my above posts.

All three options move us to a single average pc instead of a range, I've detailed the benefits of this is my former posts.

All three options create a much simpler method of creating an average and should eliminate most of the unnecessary accusations and drama that have surrounded these items for quite some time.

All three options mitigate as much as possible the impact from a manipulation attempt as these reported trades are based completely on trust as they are street trades above max stack.

All three options bring our over max stack items in line with our direction as an fc to be a pcing fc and not a flipping one, giving a "price point" instead of a "flipping range".

If we change over to a new "average" price point we might want to consider a % of total amount that an items average can move either up or down to further mitigate manipulation attempts while still giving plenty of flexibility for prices to change.

Some closing remarks

I realize this is a major adjustment to the way we have done things up to this point on items over max stack. My reasons on a new system proposal have been stated in my previous posts so I won't rehash them. I believe option 2 is the best option to move us to a single price point, mitigate manipulation attempts and keep our pcs much more relevant in times that activity on these items are high, also will be based on as few as 5 and as many as 10 confirmed trades (current pc used up to 5 times in creating the new average) giving us opportunity to update these items on a more regular (potentially daily).

Respectfully Brad 76

09-Nov-2015 03:19:09 - Last edited on 09-Nov-2015 04:12:13 by Brad 76

465798359gjk

465798359gjk

Posts: 1,078 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Brad makes some excellent points. It appears that the fc has morphed into primarily a flipping fc for those who flip street phats, with an inordinate amount effort going into providing them with ranges.

Edit: And a reminder to all ranks. This is from Lyra's meeting minutes from the December 2014 rank session. "Note from me to ensure warning is given before removing lobbiers and to always state reason for kick before doing so (unless blindingly obvious i.e. a spam attack)" - emphasis added. That's BEFORE kicking, not after kicking.

11-Nov-2015 15:17:36 - Last edited on 11-Nov-2015 16:08:51 by 465798359gjk

465798359gjk

465798359gjk

Posts: 1,078 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Personally I think items known to be trading over max cash should simply be denoted by "> max." Face it, a lot time and effort is being spent recording and analyzing data that is questionable at best. The protection provided against manipulation for those items trading on the ge does not apply to items over max cash. There simply is no way to verify with certainty any of the trades being reported. A conflict cannot be stated for items over max as it can with ge items.

To pretend that some of the trades aren't being fabricated/reported inaccurately between friends, between alts and even that every rank can be trusted to accurately report their trades is naïve. Yes, I know that the fc does it's best to address these issues. I am not suggesting that the fc as a whole manipulates items over max cash (or any other items) deliberately or that they turn a blind eye towards such attempts. To the contrary, the fc does the best it can to detect and eliminate manipulation. But IMO, by providing these ranges the fc is giving a false sense of security to fc users that the ranges obtained have validity, when any such perceived validity constitutes a leap of faith that the trades being reported actually happened and at the prices reported.

11-Nov-2015 17:48:11 - Last edited on 11-Nov-2015 18:02:03 by 465798359gjk

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