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Averia Light said :
The goal of the lockdown was to not overwhelm the hospitals. In many places, including my own state, that goal was accomplished. But... were the hospitals ever overwhelmed?

I'm looking at the bed tracking for Michigan right now, and the numbers don't seem to indicate that the hospitals are being overwhelmed.

https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98159-523641--,00.html

Is there data somewhere that shows that the hospitals were being overwhelmed? I'm better than you, but that doesn't mean you're not great!

30-Dec-2020 22:27:50 - Last edited on 30-Dec-2020 22:29:21 by NexOrigin

30-Dec-2020 22:36:55 - Last edited on 30-Dec-2020 22:37:56 by Averia Light

30-Dec-2020 22:55:33 - Last edited on 30-Dec-2020 22:55:57 by Averia Light

Okay, but, is there any data to suggest that the hospitals WOULD have been overwhelmed?

If that's the reasoning being used for the lockdown, there should be data to suggest that it was a high probability.


But, even at the top of the peak at the end of November the data doesn't suggest that the hospitals were overwhelmed. I mean, if you compare the numbers between Dec 1st, and today, there really isn't any significant change. They're slightly higher on Dec 1st, but not enough to suggest that the hospitals were being overwhelmed.

Dec 1st:

https://web.archive.org/web/20201202003823/https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98159-523641--,00.html

Today:

https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98159-523641--,00.html

I'm trying to find some more accurate data for the daily number of new cases, other than the generic Google graph, because, well, those graphs seem highly suspect.

For example:
Nov 14th - 7,321 new cases
Nov 15th - 499 new cases
Nov 16th - 12,651 new cases
Nov 17th - 7,893 new cases
Nov 18th - 6,105 new cases
Nov 19th - 7,855 new cases
Nov 20th - 10,225 new cases
Nov 21st - 7,557 new cases
Nov 22nd - 655 new cases
Nov 23rd - 11,390 new cases
Now 24th - 6,853 new cases
Nov 25th - 2,976 new cases
Nov 26th - 209 new cases
Nov 27th - 16,680 new cases
Nov 28th - 8,257 new cases
Nov 29th - 317 new cases
Nov 30th - 10,768 new cases

Notice a pattern? There's a drastic dip the day before the high spikes. They're withholding case numbers overnight in order to pad the numbers to manipulate the data into appearing that there are far more daily cases happening than what is actually happening.

People look at the graphs, and see these high numbers, such as 12,000 new daily and 16,000 new daily cases, and see how the graph does up in a in a huge spike... when in reality, the numbers are staying fairly consistent.


I need to find a better source of data than this obviously manipulated data from Google. I'm better than you, but that doesn't mean you're not great!

30-Dec-2020 23:17:11

Averia Light said :
There are lots of sources out there for both April and December but the below is one for December

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2020/12/michigan-still-has-6-hospitals-at-100-capacity-plus-three-more-at-99.html Fair enough. While I'm not sure I can find the data specifically related to those hospitals, as in how many patients were actually there during that period, I can at least check how many hospital beds they have available.

Original message details are unavailable.
The six hospitals at 100% capacity, as of Monday, Nov. 30: Covenant Healthcare in Saginaw; Lakeland Medical Center in St. Joseph; Mercy Health Lakeshore Campus in Shelby; Ascension St. Joseph Hospital in Tawas City; Ascension Standish Hospital, and McLaren Bay Special Care in Bay City.

Total hospital beds in Michigan - 23,169

https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98159-523641--,00.html

Lakeland Medical Center in St. Joseph - 250 beds

https://scs.msu.edu/hospitals/LHC/

Covenant Healthcare in Saginaw - 534 beds

https://www.ahd.com/free_profile/230070/Covenant_Medical_Center_Harrison/Saginaw/Michigan/

Mercy Health Lakeshore Campus in Shelby - 25 beds

https://www.vitals.com/hospital/3d6zx4/mercy-health-lakeshore-campus-shelby-shelby

Ascension St. Joseph Hospital in Tawas City - 47 beds

https://www.ahd.com/free_profile/230100/Ascension_St_Joseph_Hospital/Tawas_City/Michigan/

Ascension Standish Hospital - 54 beds

https://www.ahd.com/free_profile/231305/Ascension_Standish_Hospital/Standish/Michigan/

McLaren Bay Special Care in Bay City - 31 beds

https://www.mclaren.org/bay-special-care/mclaren-bay-special-care-home

So, yes, technically there were 6 hospitals that were operating at 100% capacity.

Of course, most of those were small tiny hospitals with a very low number of beds available in the first place. These aren't hospitals with thousands of beds. I'm better than you, but that doesn't mean you're not great!

30-Dec-2020 23:41:40

Miles Prower said :
Beds, beds, beds. Look at the bigger picture. You could have millions of beds, not much use if the staff aren't in place to manage the patients. There is a shortage of doctors and nurses in the UK, ergo hospitals become overwhelmed. Can you show me some data showing the shortage of doctors and nurses? I'm better than you, but that doesn't mean you're not great!

30-Dec-2020 23:57:04

31-Dec-2020 00:19:29 - Last edited on 31-Dec-2020 00:21:27 by Averia Light

31-Dec-2020 00:25:48 - Last edited on 31-Dec-2020 00:26:52 by Icy Spring