RuneScape Forum Archive | Morvran's Prefer/Block

Feb

2021

Yewnock

Posts: 1,216 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Lifer said :
170 kph for glacors sound right?

Btw, I got the 400 number from Llumys I think - for using summoning potions. Yes, 170 kills/h sounds possible, making few mistakes (and new ability should help with bad rng on glacytes).

As for celestial dragons, let's compare with some other tasks using dps (kills/h * lp/kill / 3600 seconds/hour). 400 kills/h at celestials means on average ~2.5k dps. Ranged at waterfiends (the only other "relevant" task ranged was used on), with 720 kills/h, scored only 1.6k dps. Yes, that was (I presume) without summoning potions, but the difference is considerable. But let's see some melee tasks, dark beasts (920 kills/h) are ~2.2k dps and abyssal demons (1030 kill/h) are ~2.4k dps on average. It sounds unrealistic that, even with summoning potions, ranged against single targets can get more dps than melee specially at those tasks which rely on AoE from 2h abilities and cannon or demon familiar with scrolls. Unless there's something I'm missing

but that's basically the reason 400 doesn't sound right.

25-Jul-2015 22:58:51

Jul

2021

Llumys

Posts: 2,119 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

@Lifer

I'm fairly certain it's possible to maintain points only doing three tasks.

I'll compare my spreadsheet to Dreyri's, as yours has fewer tables with which to work.

Dreyri's assignment rate calculations seem to take into consideration the possibility of rolling two "do" tasks, and as such takes their priority into account, slightly increasing higher priority assignment rates, and slightly decreasing lower priority assignment rates.

http://i.imgur.com/P2FSEcP.png

However, the assignment rates of skip tasks are unaffected, which, in my understanding, is inaccurate.

Here are my VIP numbers:

http://i.imgur.com/ars0dzS.png

As "skip" tasks have the chance to be rolled with "do" tasks, their assignments rates should be lowered, while all "do" tasks have their assignment rates raised.

Using my assignment rates, it's possible to keep a completion rate of over 48.4% doing only three tasks.

If you can be bothered to check out my calculations, I'd appreciate it.

When I first finished the calculations (with a lot of help from my friend pobrethren, who handled the crazy stuff further into the VIP tab), seeing the 3-task number (when you and Dreyri both had 5-task numbers) had me believe our calculations had been wrong, but after some thought, I'm fairly confident in their accuracy

Let me know what you think.

Links

My spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10dmInY1s322Kbi9TXxr3McA1eDfwK1YAn9pozqW6rXg/

Dreyri's spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1OZShpFUaprxLMDiG2r7dSFTKibTLxI4zoWVPHrvRxBI/

25-Jul-2015 23:00:01 - Last edited on 26-Jul-2015 03:18:44 by Llumys

Jul

2021

Llumys

Posts: 2,119 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

@Wise Thoth

I don't think 400 sounds right, either. I just used it as a very generous number for the sake of working out some rough numbers. I imagine they're somewhere in range of 335-365.

Also, those damage calculations of yours, while useful to get a rough comparison, don't take into consideration overkill damage, of which there is far less when killing Celestial dragons compared to, say, Waterfiends or Dark beasts.

Here's some further proof for Glacors at 170/h:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KqOxMmmv4Vk

25-Jul-2015 23:03:19 - Last edited on 25-Jul-2015 23:36:57 by Llumys

Jul

2008

Lifer

Posts: 12,424 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

One thing I notice right off the bat is that it is assumed prefer list basically doubles the weighting. I used to do this as well when I first created this thread. Here's how prefer works:

https://twitter.com/JagexRowley/status/515534763017662464

Apparently Statistics is a tricky son of bitch, as AoDude have pointed out and ultimately did the Prefer + VIP calculations.

From that twitter, we can imagine 2 coins with head/tails. We want EITHER coin to be heads.. Like the silent task, the coin tosses are independent of each others' outcome. What's the chance that one of the coins will be heads? 75%

AoDude said :
This is akin to the probability of two unrelated events. Like the chances of flipping heads atleast once in "X" number of flips. You get that by figuring the probability of flipping both tails and subtract that from 1, 1-(1/2)^2 making it 75% chance.

You can look up AoDude's formulas that were spread through this thread lol.

I'll talk to him about this though.

26-Jul-2015 03:19:17

Feb

2021

Yewnock

Posts: 1,216 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Llumys said :
Also, those damage calculations of yours, while useful to get a rough comparison, don't take into consideration overkill damage, of which there is far less when killing Celestial dragons compared to, say, Waterfiends or Dark beasts. Of course, of course. I though of comparing to airuts or kalgerions, which have closer lp, but there's the accuracy issue there. And automatons had a pretty low dps (~2k). The AoE+melee far over compensates the overkill damage though on the tasks I mentioned, so the point was that it really sounded unrealistic. Anyway, that's not that relevant, and I indeed only wanted a rough comparison

. The actual kills/h for celestials needs, of course, to be obtained from doing the task itself.

26-Jul-2015 03:24:59

AoDude

Posts: 1,694 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Lifer is correct about weightings not doubling. It's 2 rolls, and any preferred task is taken above a non preferred task. Vip ticket is a 3rd roll, completely unrelated to the first two rolls unless it is = to the first option, in which case it rerolls.

Lifer's sheet takes that into the consideration.

That seems to be the glaring issue with both sheets you linked, if you correct that you should end up a lot closer to what we show if not exactly. I didn't look too deeply into your formulas.

The other difference, is there is no priority of 2 preferred tasks, only priority of preferred tasks vs complete tasks. The equation figures that you would choose either preferred task equally.
AO
Deputy-Owner :
The Nexus CC

26-Jul-2015 03:41:43 - Last edited on 26-Jul-2015 03:43:41 by AoDude

Jul

2021

Llumys

Posts: 2,119 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

@Lifer, AoDude

For what reason do we have to believe that the second roll is independent?

I would imagine the first outcome is removed from the possible outcomes of the second roll, which would mean that the two rolls are not independent.

The VIP roll is not independent, and as such, how it affects assignment rates is a bit more complex.

@Wise Thoth

Absolutely. I haven't been doing much Slayer over the past couple days, but I'll get a the task eventually.

26-Jul-2015 03:54:36 - Last edited on 26-Jul-2015 03:57:38 by Llumys

Jul

2021

Llumys

Posts: 2,119 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

"Vip ticket is a 3rd roll, completely unrelated to the first two rolls unless it is = to the first option, in which case it rerolls."

~~I didn't know that. Is it confirmed?~~

Nevermind. That's the same as how I have it calculated.

26-Jul-2015 03:58:24 - Last edited on 26-Jul-2015 04:04:47 by Llumys

AoDude

Posts: 1,694 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Llumys said :
"Vip ticket is a 3rd roll, completely unrelated to the first two rolls unless it is = to the first option, in which case it rerolls."

I didn't know that. Is that confirmed?

It was stated in a live-stream concerning the Rune Dragon release. (specifically talking about the promo period, during that period Rune dragons weight truly was doubled) There is no "prefer" roll on the vip ticket.
AO
Deputy-Owner :
The Nexus CC

26-Jul-2015 04:06:23

Jul

2021

Llumys

Posts: 2,119 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

My current "weight after prefer" formula is as follows:

=if(Tasks!C2 = "Prefer", C2*2, C2)

where Tasks!C2 is the action, and C2 is the weight after lock

I'm figuring out how I'd change to fit the roll mechanic you explained. Any help is appreciated.

- - -

Just read your comment.

There's no prefer roll on the VIP? That's basically everything I had my friend do down the drain. That's hugely discouraging.

Feeling like deleting everything, and I was pretty proud of what I had. )v:

Wish Jagex were clearer with their mechanics.

26-Jul-2015 04:13:42 - Last edited on 26-Jul-2015 04:30:01 by Llumys

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