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How rare is second age?

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2 bill for
Mar Member 2019

2 bill for

Posts: 67 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Alsinda, your 'guess' based is based solely on your own experience in collecting. Your numbers assume noone out of the millions of players, and the tens of thousands that can afford to do, are collecting/hoarding/keepsaking/taking a break.

Even 1 or 2 and more likely 10 other's that collectively 'buy out' or hold an item will throw a wrench into your estimate. Zee's numbers check out through logic whereas your bias will lean towards wanting it to be rarer than they actually are.

Zee is right on the money.

"Someone ran a computer sim program for several days, the thing was the longer you ran it the more accurate it would average the results so it was just a possible output."

L O L

28-Apr-2021 02:32:32

Alsinda
Apr Member 2019

Alsinda

Posts: 1,179 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
You hear how stupid you sound? You are basing it off of nothing really. There is NO ONE that knows and Zee's numbers are an educated guess in itself if you even understand odds.

Boy don't ever go to Vegas if you ass ume you will win for sure.


ROFL that a difference between 100 and 200 is an astronomical difference really of rarity in this game. That was funny.. and of course you also think probably that there is 0 skill in collecting and we don't really learn much as we go. Maybe I was taken wrong or I slightly wrote wrong but I was more saying that it could be plus or minus within both ranges and still be within the odds. You will not nail this to that certainty.

28-Apr-2021 04:35:56 - Last edited on 28-Apr-2021 04:53:33 by Alsinda

Zee Kiln

Zee Kiln

Posts: 53 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I agree there could be outliers and one 2a item might be rarer than another. But we have no indication as to which item that would be, and no way of testing it.

Having a collection doesn't really work as data because many players may also have hoarded collections, and they just aren't telling people about it.

I kind of feel that since you have a significant investment in 2a bows, your desire for them to be rarer that what I said, is heavily biasing your opinion.

I suppose we just agree to disagree on this.

28-Apr-2021 09:30:03 - Last edited on 28-Apr-2021 09:31:45 by Zee Kiln

2 bill for
Mar Member 2019

2 bill for

Posts: 67 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I guess I better bust out my 'computer simulation' and run it for a few days before going to vegas. Maybe run it longer, y'know...to get more accurate results. /s

"do you hear how stupid you sound?" someone's projecting... lol. If you had any basic idea of how stats and actual computations worked, maybe it wouldn't be such obvious laughable BS. Zee was being nice by not to calling you out on it.

Key takeaway: Having a collection is NOT data. Sorry the actual probabilities don't meet YOUR personal expectation/feelings on the subject. Might be a big surprise, and I hate to break it to ya but you're not the only one collecting lol. #notspecial #fragile #egomercher

28-Apr-2021 10:33:10

Miffdor
Jun Member 2005

Miffdor

Posts: 6,122 Rune Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
It seems to me that if one person has been able to stockpile 75-100 of a single 2A weapon, then a total of 225 in game sounds plausible. If 225 is roughly correct, I would be surprised if someone had been able to stockpile 200+.

When I last posted I thought Alsinda was talking about 2A armour, which going by Zee Kiln’s calculations are much rarer. That’s why I thought the 75 figure might be an underestimate.

If Zee Kiln’s estimates are in the right ballpark, I would guess it would be possible for someone to stockpile 30+ of a single 2A armour item within a few months without too much difficulty.

28-Apr-2021 18:04:47

Alsinda
Apr Member 2019

Alsinda

Posts: 1,179 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Honestly the difference of what all of us are talking about is within margin of error. That is the entire point of my conversation. Some of you are arguing with yourself.

And fyi. Ass ume all you want, I have no bias opinion. I started this buyout 3.5 yrs ago. Ofc it went unnoticed because that is what I am good at. It is a skill to collect. I didn't buy it to pump and dump. I have not sold one back yet. I initially wanted it to actually learn the ge instead if listening to the nubs (like pee head) in the game that know all. I figured 2nd age might be one of the only items to Actually learn first hand.

Do I care if there are 100 to 200. Not exactly, the work I've done is complete in my eyes as the collector and it feels similar to other buyouts when there really aren't any left. Ofc inactive will return. Are there double what I think there is floating around, Hell No.
Is there really much of a difference between 100 and 200? When it comes to an item in this game?? Margin of error...

28-Apr-2021 19:54:33 - Last edited on 28-Apr-2021 20:18:18 by Alsinda

Alsinda
Apr Member 2019

Alsinda

Posts: 1,179 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
2 bill for said :
I guess I better bust out my 'computer simulation' and run it for a few days before going to vegas. Maybe run it longer, y'know...to get more accurate results. /s

"do you hear how stupid you sound?" someone's projecting... lol. If you had any basic idea of how stats and actual computations worked, maybe it wouldn't be such obvious laughable BS. Zee was being nice by not to calling you out on it.

Key takeaway: Having a collection is NOT data. Sorry the actual probabilities don't meet YOUR personal expectation/feelings on the subject. Might be a big surprise, and I hate to break it to ya but you're not the only one collecting lol. #notspecial #fragile #egomercher

Very funny Mr pee and Very aggressive. Prove anything you say. No offense, I have no idea who Mr zee is. Nor would his or especially not your opinion matter hsit. I say this in the nicest way, no disrespect to Zee. It's how I play. Mr Pee adds 0 value to this thread.

28-Apr-2021 19:56:57 - Last edited on 28-Apr-2021 20:32:02 by Alsinda

Alsinda
Apr Member 2019

Alsinda

Posts: 1,179 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
And to actually think being the largest single holder of second age would have a decent convo here :P the thread on second age rarity haha


WTF DO I KNOW :)

Fyi, last rise in ge. My doing, 0 lost. ;) like I said, learning the ge. Talk about the value that real data could add to the convo..
3 years prior straight line, My doing.

This will piss u off pee, all Free from Dye flips ;) #whatwinningfeelslike

28-Apr-2021 20:01:38 - Last edited on 28-Apr-2021 20:34:35 by Alsinda

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