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How rare is second age?

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Zee Kiln

Zee Kiln

Posts: 53 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I was watching a YT vid from Aura and Sushi opening 15k caskets and he only got 1 piece of second age, it was the sword. It got me wondering how much second age is in the game.

Does anyone have an educated guess?

There was another thread about this 2 years ago, but I didn't want to go bumping a thread from the grave. If you search "second age" in the forums you will find it. On that thread people speculated with a few different numbers, all of which are irrelevant now because 2 years have passed since then and master clues have only been out 3 years.

I'm curious about this with a lot of items, would be so interesting if there was a database with the amount of each item in the game.


I did some research to answer the question, below are the results
Zee Kiln said :
Hey guys, you're gonna think I'm crazy, but I went ahead and calculated how many clues have been done since Feb 2018 when HiScores were introduced with master clues.

Also since Jagex released the drop rate information like S 1 M O N said, we can work out pretty accurately how much of each item has been obtained since Feb 2018.

I got the drop rate values from the wiki page
https://runescape.wiki/w/Treasure_Trails/Rewards#
which as far as I'm aware also takes into account ring of luck and increased chance of a rare drop roll when you miss rolls.

Oh and I didn't just do master clues...

Hard clues
25.6m completed


Elite clues
16.2m completed


Master clues
4.1m completed

20-Jan-2021 20:55:59 - Last edited on 23-Mar-2021 08:48:39 by Zee Kiln

Zee Kiln

Zee Kiln

Posts: 53 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
S 1 M O N said :
Well, you don't need 'educated' guesses, you can view the Wiki for confirmed drop rates;

https://runescape.wiki/w/Reward_casket_(master)#cite_ref-2aGroup_13-0

And draw your own conclusions if need be.

I was more curious about how much is in the game, so would need to know how many clue scrolls have been opened

21-Jan-2021 10:56:45

Raphtalia6
Oct Member 2017

Raphtalia6

Posts: 1,134 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Ive a friend who got a 2nd age sword in like 50 clues or so.

Its entirely build on RNG.

1 player can get like 4 shadow dyes in 300 hards and someone else gets his first at 1300+.

so if were talking about *amount of items ingame* then it entirely depends on the RNG of the people doing master clues.

if you wanna know how many total masters have been opened then just check the highscore and calculate the top 100 people in the master list for a good average.

when you have that total then just cross that total with the wiki for an average per master casket to get a 2nd age item. if you want to know the chance for a certain piece then just multiply with the amount of 2nd age items available.

this should answer most questions.

ofcourse RNG its self cant really be calculated. technically it can be calculated. but for that you need acces equal or maybe above a jatex mod. which is entirely impossible besides the droptable showcases they do for the wiki. but that RNG is based on the average luck per player factor.

i hope this helps. trusting certain pc lists or prices of items or websites that dont belong to jagex will get you into trouble notice: external websites and trades are your responsibility, dont get fooled!.

21-Jan-2021 13:06:53

Cleopatre
Dec Member 2016

Cleopatre

Posts: 141 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Don't forgot the fact that second age weapons are more common than armours pieces. The rarity is over Orlando Smith hat.

"if you wanna know how many total masters have been opened then just check the highscore and calculate the top 100 people in the master list for a good average." <-- that's the best way to miss 95% of the total casket opened.

21-Jan-2021 15:16:46 - Last edited on 21-Jan-2021 15:21:39 by Cleopatre

Zee Kiln

Zee Kiln

Posts: 53 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Cleopatre said :
Don't forgot the fact that second age weapons are more common than armours pieces. The rarity is over Orlando Smith hat.

"if you wanna know how many total masters have been opened then just check the highscore and calculate the top 100 people in the master list for a good average." <-- that's the best way to miss 95% of the total casket opened.

I agree with Cleopatre, you would have to count all the different pages of players with different amount of clues completed to get an accurate number

21-Jan-2021 15:45:38

Raphtalia6
Oct Member 2017

Raphtalia6

Posts: 1,134 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Cleopatre said :
Don't forgot the fact that second age weapons are more common than armours pieces. The rarity is over Orlando Smith hat.

"if you wanna know how many total masters have been opened then just check the highscore and calculate the top 100 people in the master list for a good average." <-- that's the best way to miss 95% of the total casket opened.

In that case i recommend setting up a team to count. because by the time you went through all those pages the numbers have already changed. i assume you want to make a count of a specific moment. if you dont then you got all the time but you wont have an accurate number.

assuming the top 100 does master clues on weekly/daily base. going beyond the top 100 will take time and after you went through the remaining pages the top 100 already changed by alot compared to the results before going through all the pages.

it is possible to get it done in 1 day. just not alone i believe, thats all i am saying.

so the best and most efficient way with the most accuracy would be to get all those peoples done clues counted within a 10 hour span. if that requirement is met i truly believe the accuracy is about 90-95%. anywhere past a 10 hour time span will make it alot harder because by then alot of people have done alot more masters making the total inaccurate. trusting certain pc lists or prices of items or websites that dont belong to jagex will get you into trouble notice: external websites and trades are your responsibility, dont get fooled!.

21-Jan-2021 16:02:05 - Last edited on 21-Jan-2021 16:03:45 by Raphtalia6

Zee Kiln

Zee Kiln

Posts: 53 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
What about taking the median clue scrolls completed for say, 10 pages, then multiplying it by the number of players on those pages (in this case 250 players)

For example, pages 2000-2010 on the high scores have a range of 4-6 clue scrolls completed.
5x250 = 1250 scrolls
You do the same for every 10 pages and then add the totals together to get the final number of scrolls completed.

You could change the amount of pages you include in 1 calculation to adjust for the increasing difference you would find the closer to #1 you got.

For example, pages 3000+ could be calculated every 100 pages, where as for the last 10 pages you would probably have to do them individually because there is much greater variance.

21-Jan-2021 17:04:29

Zee Kiln

Zee Kiln

Posts: 53 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Hey guys, you're gonna think I'm crazy, but I went ahead and calculated how many clues have been done since Feb 2018 when HiScores were introduced with master clues.

Also since Jagex released the drop rate information like S 1 M O N said, we can work out pretty accurately how much of each item has been obtained since Feb 2018.

I got the drop rate values from the wiki page
https://runescape.wiki/w/Treasure_Trails/Rewards#
which as far as I'm aware also takes into account ring of luck and increased chance of a rare drop roll when you miss rolls.

Oh and I didn't just do master clues...

Hard clues
25.6m completed


Elite clues
16.2m completed


Master clues
4.1m completed

22-Jan-2021 20:04:55

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