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How rare is second age?

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Zee Kiln

Zee Kiln

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The drop rates also assumed tier 4 luck. If every person had not been wearing tier 4 luck then their chance of hitting the rare drop table would have been 1% less and therefore the total number of 2a would be 1% less. But im pretty sure the vast majority wear t4 luck when opening caskets.

25-Mar-2021 08:20:02

Miffdor
Jun Member 2005

Miffdor

Posts: 6,122 Rune Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Alsinda said :
From the feel of owning the most 2a weapons I've ever seen on one account I think I could tell if there were 3x what I think there is in 2nd weapons I feel I would notice.
Out of interest, what is the biggest stock of 2A you've seen?

02-Apr-2021 14:41:47

Alsinda
Apr Member 2019

Alsinda

Posts: 1,179 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Would not like to put an exact number on it but between 75-100. The unknown to me is roughly how many are on over 3 year inactive accounts. Could be 5 by now or could be 100.

I'm a huge long term collection fan. An example is what I did to infinity boots - 70k to present, sorry!!

05-Apr-2021 18:59:52 - Last edited on 05-Apr-2021 19:04:33 by Alsinda

Sea King
Oct Member 2019

Sea King

Posts: 7,492 Rune Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Alsinda said :
Would not like to put an exact number on it but between 75-100. The unknown to me is roughly how many are on over 3 year inactive accounts. Could be 5 by now or could be 100.

I'm a huge long term collection fan. An example is what I did to infinity boots - 70k to present, sorry!!

Infinity boots went up to where they are now because Jagex made hidey-holes that incentivized each player to own at least one of those boots. If you are willing to chuck your most precious possessions like phats because someone said words like crashing/dying/quitting and then find yourself unable to rebuy for what you sold for, then you don't deserve to own a phat.

11-Apr-2021 21:46:07

Fun Lupon
Jan Member 2023

Fun Lupon

Posts: 7,441 Rune Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Alsinda said :
Slightly more complicated than a simple math formula for drop rates calculations from what I understand. Or everyone wouldn't be guessing volumes of items all the time.

From the feel of owning the most 2a weapons I've ever seen on one account I think I could tell if there were 3x what I think there is in 2nd weapons I feel I would notice. I say think, because I don't know. But I say that with experience in merchanting buyouts as my RS enjoyment for 15yrs.

Good calculations, very close to real results likley. No matter, the stuff is undoubtedly insainly rare.

What utter BS. I believe Zee's numbers.

12-Apr-2021 15:51:31

Miffdor
Jun Member 2005

Miffdor

Posts: 6,122 Rune Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Alsinda said :
Would not like to put an exact number on it but between 75-100. The unknown to me is roughly how many are on over 3 year inactive accounts. Could be 5 by now or could be 100.

I'm a huge long term collection fan. An example is what I did to infinity boots - 70k to present, sorry!!
Collections ftw ;)

For the 2A items, if you have seen a stash of 75-100 items then surely the estimate of 75 in game must be an underestimate?

17-Apr-2021 11:16:17

Alsinda
Apr Member 2019

Alsinda

Posts: 1,179 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Fun Lupon said :
Alsinda said :
Slightly more complicated than a simple math formula for drop rates calculations from what I understand. Or everyone wouldn't be guessing volumes of items all the time.

From the feel of owning the most 2a weapons I've ever seen on one account I think I could tell if there were 3x what I think there is in 2nd weapons I feel I would notice. I say think, because I don't know. But I say that with experience in merchanting buyouts as my RS enjoyment for 15yrs.

Good calculations, very close to real results likely. No matter, the stuff is undoubtedly insainly rare.

What utter BS. I believe Zee's numbers.

anytime you'd like to actually prove otherwise feel free. I can show what i have and tell you what else I can't or you can't prove so utter BS? There is no question he is wrong it's just about how much is he wrong.

I have 120 thieving but no Pet drop, I see game announcement next day for someone getting it at 500k xp...

All this is just a guess but probably the most honest information you'll ever get on here.

27-Apr-2021 05:42:22 - Last edited on 27-Apr-2021 06:08:13 by Alsinda

Alsinda
Apr Member 2019

Alsinda

Posts: 1,179 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Miffdor said :
Alsinda said :
Would not like to put an exact number on it but between 75-100. The unknown to me is roughly how many are on over 3 year inactive accounts. Could be 5 by now or could be 100.

I'm a huge long term collection fan. An example is what I did to infinity boots - 70k to present, sorry!!
Collections ftw ;)

For the 2A items, if you have seen a stash of 75-100 items then surely the estimate of 75 in game must be an underestimate?

If I had to guess the number is less than half of Mr Zee's number of possible active and to be fair it's all odds so one weapon obviously will have more than another so exact math won't apply here.

27-Apr-2021 05:46:00 - Last edited on 27-Apr-2021 06:05:34 by Alsinda

Zee Kiln

Zee Kiln

Posts: 53 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Alsinda said :
There is no question he is wrong it's just about how much is he wrong.



Well, i used the hiscores to calculate the total number of master clues completed (the hiscores started with the release of master clues) and then divided that by the drop rates provided by jagex themselves.

So can you tell me how you know with such certainty that I'm wrong? What additional data have you accounted for that I haven't?

I realise that you have a feeling for how many there are in circulation because you have bought a lot of them. But I think that this feeling is giving your perception a bit of a false bias

How many you have yourself, isn't a good indicator of how many are in the market.

Along with that feeling you would need tons more data like:
- % of people that sell on ge once they get from clue
- % of sales that overcut you on ge
- % of people who own 2a that dont sell
and a million other data points to try and make it more accurate

In reality, thanks to jagex, we have both the total clues completed and the exact drop rate. So we don't need to try and do any complicated calculations with many data points.

Also, if there were significantly less clues completed I would accept that there could potentially be a big outlier, with one item being way more or way less rare than the other.

But at over 4 million clues completed, the law of averages starts to take control...

27-Apr-2021 09:33:50

Alsinda
Apr Member 2019

Alsinda

Posts: 1,179 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Again, I'll repeat by saying we know you are wrong it's just about how much you are wrong.
Obviously your guesses are not 100. it's using an odds calculator just as it is, ODDS. Don't take offense to the approach. Your estimate is nothing other than a crude logical guess.

At these low numbers, rolling the odds 100 to 200 times over the amount of clues you are talking is ludicrous to assume anything other. I just hate to see a crowd jump on a single number is my point.

27-Apr-2021 19:37:20 - Last edited on 27-Apr-2021 19:46:35 by Alsinda

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