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How rare is second age?

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Zee Kiln

Zee Kiln

Posts: 53 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Fittish said :
Zee Kiln said :


An interesting side project (if possible) would be to calculate the "inflationary decay" of 2a
I'll make a new thread about it when that time comes, but under a different name because I fear I have made 2a a target for merchers with this one 😬

Or people are just waking up to the realization of how rare it is

Well, anyway, I'm now more interested in the clue project as a whole, rather than just 2a.

07-Mar-2021 14:05:31

Alsinda
Apr Member 2019

Alsinda

Posts: 1,179 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Cannot wait to hear more. I have been looking for the data someone ran a year ago but can't find. Someone ran a computer sim program for several days, the thing was the longer you ran it the more accurate it would average the results so it was just a possible output. It will be interesting to see what you guys come up with. The numbers I saw were really low. Weapons were estimated to be roughly double of a single armor piece. So weapon is still more rare than an armor set but half as rare as an armor piece.

My experience is with only one of the pieces which is pretty extensive over two and a half years of Only buying and stocking. I could tell you the number at which it has gone dry, no more ge sales. Ofc I can't estimate how many are on non active accounts I could say I can't get anymore after a certain number only It is very low and barely barely 3 digits for a weapon. I have not seen anyone with similar stock as me of any other 2a item. Would love to share inventory trades if you are out there!

Please keep this thread alive. 2nd rules ;)

23-Mar-2021 06:59:27

Alsinda
Apr Member 2019

Alsinda

Posts: 1,179 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Nice Data, is that a run once calculation?
Similar results but slightly different outcome than I've seen ran by computer model. That simulation came up with one year ago:
Armor pieces ~ 47 ea
Weapons ~ 79

Maybe a few have come in over the last year.

I'll believe 225 weapons when I see them. Maybe but doubt.

24-Mar-2021 16:46:35 - Last edited on 24-Mar-2021 16:52:58 by Alsinda

Zee Kiln

Zee Kiln

Posts: 53 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Alsinda said :
Nice Data, is that a run once calculation?
Similar results but slightly different outcome than I've seen ran by computer model. That simulation came up with one year ago:
Armor pieces ~ 47 ea
Weapons ~ 79

Maybe a few have come in over the last year.

I'll believe 225 weapons when I see them. Maybe but doubt.

I'm not sure what you mean by run once calculation.
I used the runescape hiscores to count how many clue scrolls have been completed , then I just divided that total by the drop rates given to us by jagex https://www.runescape.com/master-clue-rates

I'm going to recalculate the hiscores later this year to see how many more master clues have been completed

Also not sure how you can make a computer model to calculate this.

The two essential pieces of data are the drop rates and the total clues completed. Only with those numbers can you work it out, and you don't need a computer model to do that calculation.

24-Mar-2021 17:08:50 - Last edited on 24-Mar-2021 17:11:44 by Zee Kiln

Alsinda
Apr Member 2019

Alsinda

Posts: 1,179 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Slightly more complicated than a simple math formula for drop rates calculations from what I understand. Or everyone wouldn't be guessing volumes of items all the time.

From the feel of owning the most 2a weapons I've ever seen on one account I think I could tell if there were 3x what I think there is in 2nd weapons I feel I would notice. I say think, because I don't know. But I say that with experience in merchanting buyouts as my RS enjoyment for 15yrs.

Good calculations, very close to real results likley. No matter, the stuff is undoubtedly insainly rare.

24-Mar-2021 17:55:27

Zee Kiln

Zee Kiln

Posts: 53 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Finance said :
Cool thread.

Can you explain how you counted the number of completed clues since Feb 2018?

I looked at the hiscores and multiplied the average number of clues completed for x number of pages, then multiplied that number by the amount of people on those pages.

As i got closer to page 1 i reduced the amount of pages used to calculate the average number of clues to maintain accuracy.

For example
Pages 3000-3100 have players 75000-77500
Player 75000 has 3 clues completed, player 77500 has 2 clues completed, average for this range = 2.5 clues
2.5 * 2500 = 5125 clues completed for pages 3000-3100

You can see the break down per page on the spreadsheets, i included all that information.

The flaw in this method is that, on average, there are fewer people who do more clues.
For example on 10 pages you have 250 players
120 players have completed 3 scrolls
130 players have completed 2 scrolls

My average calculation generates 2.5 clues completed per player
Whereas the real average is 2.48

Before i did all the calculations, i took a sample of a few sets of random pages, to see how by how much the average was higher, since it was significantly less than 5% for the vast majority of pages, I ignored it.

But certainly, the total number of clues completed has to be slightly less than the number i recorded, but only by 0-5%

25-Mar-2021 07:58:35 - Last edited on 25-Mar-2021 08:14:25 by Zee Kiln

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