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~Disc. Items Discussion v1~

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DofIamingo
Nov Member 2023

DofIamingo

Posts: 2,684 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
nyxiah said :
@Mytrix,

A "crash" as you expect it, is never going to happen. Dips, yes.

People who stocked up on multiple rares (20+) might not be bothering to sell, because the buy limit is 2/4

The reason why they would sell is to re-buy cheaper, but this is not possible when the limit is 2/4 - So they would make more by just holding their rares.

No one is selling their Santas when they know that they won't be able to re-buy the bulk cheaper.

And let's not talk about the huge inflation, which worsens every day.

We will obviously see another "crazy" rise soon, and I can tell this by the low volume of items in GE


People only believe it when they see it. They don't understand the concept of inflation.

Once a rise happens, the same people will just call manip, since they bought your inflated rares at peak.

01-Sep-2020 14:10:50 - Last edited on 01-Sep-2020 14:11:32 by DofIamingo

Mytrix

Mytrix

Posts: 319 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
nyxiah said :
@Mytrix,
A "crash" as you expect it, is never going to happen. Dips, yes.


I speculate about a crash and I based my facts on “pump” and “dump” of merchants. Back in the days I was a merchant myself, I have seen plenty of rises and crashes. However, I do also say it all depends on some factors as stated above.

Rares are really influenced by FOMO and panic. Either way, by selling or buying… people panic buy or panic sell.

The only moment when we will see the real demand/supply again (and thus real prices!), is when things are settling down. Right now, rares are still hot topic.

As soon as people realize the fire is almost out, they will start selling to cash out and create higher supply. This will create a train of selling, totally normal.

People with 20+ of lowers do not want to keep 20+ of them in their bank for long time (most of them). They want partyhats at the end for the longer period. That’s why I belive they will sooner or later move to hats again and create the last spike in hats like it has always been in the past. That’s my believe, I’m not here to argue all day...

Time will tell who is right!

I would love another bigger “crazy” rise again for myself, however I find it at this point unrealistic.

Normally we will now see a big dip, followed up by another big rise (but not higher than earlier), and later on see the price settle until March/February at their somewhat lowest price for now.

A question based on your “keep on rising” theory
: I find it interesting to know who is paying me my (so far) 11,5b profit of flipping a few times my lower rares stock since July? If you are a little experienced, it’s very easy to profit from these prices all over the place. But who is paying me this money? Who is “losing” this money? At some point (if we all make good money I assume) the money needs to dry out? Or is there now endless pot of gold?

01-Sep-2020 15:20:34 - Last edited on 01-Sep-2020 15:24:27 by Mytrix

Mytrix

Mytrix

Posts: 319 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
DofIamingo said :
nyxiah said :
@Mytrix,

A "crash" as you expect it, is never going to happen. Dips, yes.

People who stocked up on multiple rares (20+) might not be bothering to sell, because the buy limit is 2/4

The reason why they would sell is to re-buy cheaper, but this is not possible when the limit is 2/4 - So they would make more by just holding their rares.

No one is selling their Santas when they know that they won't be able to re-buy the bulk cheaper.

And let's not talk about the huge inflation, which worsens every day.

We will obviously see another "crazy" rise soon, and I can tell this by the low volume of items in GE


People only believe it when they see it. They don't understand the concept of inflation.

Once a rise happens, the same people will just call manip, since they bought your inflated rares at peak.


At first, I am well aware of what inflation means. I have recently studied 6 years being an engineer, I am not dumb. Sad you feel like attacking me or “people like me”, I think that says enough about you. This is a discussion thread, not a flaming/shaming thread.

Secondly, Jagex stated somewhere, if I recall correctly, that there is no inflation, even small deflation. I find it hard to believe, but that could indicate there is no big inflation going on.

That being said, I have a big final rare collection (build up since 2006 until 2010) which I only make bigger by flipping once a while and rebuying more… So I don’t see you point at “bought your inflated rares at peak”…

So anyway, good story….

01-Sep-2020 15:21:01

DofIamingo
Nov Member 2023

DofIamingo

Posts: 2,684 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Firstly, I didn't attack you, you put yourself into that category so you don't need to play victim.


Yes. If you held rares from 2006-2010, they will have gone up by 2020. I don't personally see the achievement in that. But good for you I guess. Yes there have been spikes in the prices which have been obvious over the years, and good selling points to dump and re-buy.

Also, if people max out shards, then they generally would trade in Phats. With Santas now out of GE, people are more than willing to buy and hold those, as seen by previous other lowers over the years. eg wreaths, bsh + edibles. I assure you there are plenty of people with more than 20+ lowers just lying around and they're more than willing to sit on for years to come. In future, others will also do the same.

Yes people don't understand the concept of inflation and yes people do buy dumps at peaks. These same people cause the majority of dips when they attempt to sell and then panic.

I personally see the prices of rares as a good indicator of inflation. If the prices of rares go back to where they were 5 months ago, then ok there is no inflation and Jagex is right like they always are :^). The fact that every rare is still higher even after the bubble burst, should be enough to tell you that there is inflation. Are we in a slump for rare prices? No.

You don't need a crystal ball to see what's going on. I don't personally think you understand how much GP is in the game since you think the 'pot will dry out'. Unless you were joking of course :^)

01-Sep-2020 16:09:29 - Last edited on 01-Sep-2020 16:13:46 by DofIamingo

Jacob190

Jacob190

Posts: 635 Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
DofIamingo said :
nyxiah said :
@Mytrix,

A "crash" as you expect it, is never going to happen. Dips, yes.

People who stocked up on multiple rares (20+) might not be bothering to sell, because the buy limit is 2/4

The reason why they would sell is to re-buy cheaper, but this is not possible when the limit is 2/4 - So they would make more by just holding their rares.

No one is selling their Santas when they know that they won't be able to re-buy the bulk cheaper.

And let's not talk about the huge inflation, which worsens every day.

We will obviously see another "crazy" rise soon, and I can tell this by the low volume of items in GE


People only believe it when they see it. They don't understand the concept of inflation.

Once a rise happens, the same people will just call manip, since they bought your inflated rares at peak.
I do believe that DofIamingo is right, as nobody believes crashes will happen until they already do. I don't think the rares market will be able to keep a constant insane rise forever as has been said, these people that merchant rares buy them intending to profit and move up in the chain of rares. I think this insane rise will eventually steady and drop off as is what has happened before.

01-Sep-2020 18:21:04 - Last edited on 01-Sep-2020 18:22:10 by Jacob190

ELITE STACK
Mar Member 2014

ELITE STACK

Posts: 8,082 Rune Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Sturm said :
does anyone have any thoughts on rubber turkeys? do we consider this a discontinued item again after it's 2017 re-release which from what i can understand didn't go to well with the community?



After the first rerelease, they have only been rereleased through cracker as a very rare reward. I have only had 1 turkey from cracker so far.
I need my blue charms back.

01-Sep-2020 20:22:59

Sturm

Sturm

Posts: 13,378 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
ELITE STACK said :
Sturm said :
does anyone have any thoughts on rubber turkeys? do we consider this a discontinued item again after it's 2017 re-release which from what i can understand didn't go to well with the community?



After the first rerelease, they have only been rereleased through cracker as a very rare reward. I have only had 1 turkey from cracker so far.


i see, thanks for the reply.

rubber turkey sure got the short end of the straw here out of the new rares, shame haha

01-Sep-2020 20:26:51

Pkavidas

Pkavidas

Posts: 113 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
xmas scythe is really undervalued right now (1.6-1.7b) when wreaths are hitting 9b and climbing. I just bought two more lol.

All lowers have really slowed down. Is it because ppl are going back to school/ work and don't have much time for rs? The biggest shocker is that santas managed to stay out of GE during the crash.

Also why have bonds shot up in price while rares crashed/ less people playing?

22-Sep-2020 22:13:48 - Last edited on 22-Sep-2020 22:17:38 by Pkavidas

S 1 M O N
Sep Member 2016

S 1 M O N

Posts: 1,491 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Pkavidas said :
xmas scythe is really undervalued right now (1.6-1.7b) when wreaths are hitting 9b and climbing. I just bought two more lol.

All lowers have really slowed down. Is it because ppl are going back to school/ work and don't have much time for rs? The biggest shocker is that santas managed to stay out of GE during the crash.

Also why have bonds shot up in price while rares crashed/ less people playing?


Bond's have been slowly rising as they are now more useful - premier, Yak Track etc. Also, Bond's are, in my opinion, probably brought by the same 5% of the active RS population (as an MTX) repeatedly and then sold to the masses over GE etc. The same goes for TH keys etc - it will be the same 5% spending 95% of the money. So bonds, provided they have some use, will rise and have little impact on inflation elsewhere.

As for Santa's staying out the GE, i read somewhere a couple of profilic clans have so many max cash offers in GE that Santa's have effectively left the GE for good. If anyone was to sell on the GE, they'd just be brought up by said clans and not reported. That's the theory anyway - I'm sure i read about this on the Disc Status thread. Would explain it anyway.

22-Sep-2020 23:54:31

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