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Shn
Aug Member 2023

Shn

Posts: 406 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I Lack Heart said :
Shn said :
Below are the trading statistics on all 50 pages of the Discontinued Items trading forum.

You can clearly see the amount of selling has been very high in the past several days.

What do you guys make of this data?



The raw data:


is that phat sales or sales in general? what ive learned to know about price check fc's is that people tend to report sales and buys that they think will benefit them profit wise aka large surge of reports on specific items by specific people. of course there is people who want to genuinely be helpful.

The data is number of threads in the discontinued trading forum, not v60. 99% of these trades are for non GE items. Creator of RuneRares (no longer available). Been playing 15+ years.

05-Jul-2020 15:57:01

RichKngMidas

RichKngMidas

Posts: 175 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Trip180 said :
Midas,

For every seller, there's a buyer. If there were more sellers, then prices would be falling. Currently, prices are steady for phats.

White is weak, which suggests a lack of confidence in phats.

A future update could crash them. DXP would crash them. But will that happen? There was a strong dip, and then it bounced.

I have to disagree with the first bit you said. There is not always a buyer for every seller, especially in the partyhat market. I myself have spent well over a month, at times, trying to move a blue due to lack of buyers.

But you can easily have more sellers than buyers, in any market, and that doesn't necessarily translate to a decrease in price, especially if the sellers are stubborn and stuck to their prices.

I have observed many times, that when sellers miss a good opportunity to profit, they will opt to hold their phat rather than take a loss, thinking there will be similar opportunities in the future. Not often do I notice phat owners panic selling.

I think Shn's data definitely shows there are currently more partyhat sellers than buyers right at the moment, but that won't necessarily mean a crash or price decrease until, and only if, people become desperate to sell, and start competing their prices down. I'm known as Rich King Midas, and when you look at me, you'll see a king who knows a thing about his treasury. I never cared for women. I've never cared for wine. But when I count a large amount of money - ha ha - it's divine!

05-Jul-2020 19:05:58 - Last edited on 05-Jul-2020 19:20:13 by RichKngMidas

Shn
Aug Member 2023

Shn

Posts: 406 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
RichKngMidas said :


I think Shn's data definitely shows there are currently more partyhat sellers than buyers right at the moment, but that won't necessarily mean a crash or price decrease until, and only if, people become desperate to sell, and start competing their prices down.

One thing I noticed today is that everyone, with the exception of one player, on the discontinued item trading (not discussion) forum is a mercher either buying or selling. Given how high ALL rares are (phats, lowers, etc) it makes me wonder how many players are priced out of the market. Almost every rare is at an all time record at the moment, or close. With how fast they've risen recently and how expensive rares are to begin with, I wonder if player's can afford to pay an extra 20% on their rares in just a month's time and if it will make a marked difference in demand. Creator of RuneRares (no longer available). Been playing 15+ years.

05-Jul-2020 23:34:52 - Last edited on 05-Jul-2020 23:35:59 by Shn

RichKngMidas

RichKngMidas

Posts: 175 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Shn said :
RichKngMidas said :


I think Shn's data definitely shows there are currently more partyhat sellers than buyers right at the moment, but that won't necessarily mean a crash or price decrease until, and only if, people become desperate to sell, and start competing their prices down.

One thing I noticed today is that everyone, with the exception of one player, on the discontinued item trading (not discussion) forum is a mercher either buying or selling. Given how high ALL rares are (phats, lowers, etc) it makes me wonder how many players are priced out of the market. Almost every rare is at an all time record at the moment, or close. With how fast they've risen recently and how expensive rares are to begin with, I wonder if player's can afford to pay an extra 20% on their rares in just a month's time and if it will make a marked difference in demand.

I personally think the lowest valued traditional rares and cheaper tokens will end up the only discontinueds left with any bit of demand from average players, because as you say, a lot of average players are now priced out of these markets.

This is also one of the reasons I got out of the phats market recently and shifted my assets into other things, because their returns have been terrible the last three years. Phats are a great example of what happens when an item gets priced out of the market; you end up with a small minority of people trading amongst themselves, and they cannot keep up the high prices, because there is no new demand entering that market. Blue went from 29B in 2017 to 18B. It took three years to reach 29B again, hanging around the low 20s for long periods of time. I don't see much future for them aside from stable prices. Whereas cheaper items like a Santa hat have more room to grow, and higher potential return, as a percentage. I'm known as Rich King Midas, and when you look at me, you'll see a king who knows a thing about his treasury. I never cared for women. I've never cared for wine. But when I count a large amount of money - ha ha - it's divine!

06-Jul-2020 00:53:20 - Last edited on 06-Jul-2020 01:16:19 by RichKngMidas

Shn
Aug Member 2023

Shn

Posts: 406 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
RichKngMidas said :


This is also one of the reasons I got out of the phats market recently and shifted my assets into other things, because their returns have been terrible the last three years. Phats are a great example of what happens when an item gets priced out of the market; you end up with a small minority of people trading amongst themselves, and they cannot keep up the high prices, because there is no new demand entering that market. Blue went from 29B in 2017 to 18B. It took three years to reach 29B again, hanging around the low 20s for long periods of time. I don't see much future for them aside from stable prices. Whereas cheaper items like a Santa hat have more room to grow, and higher potential return, as a percentage.

You hit the nail on the head here. Prior to 2017, rares were going up very steadily, constantly. 2017-2020, they really just stopped dead because no one could afford a phat. They went up recently because of this "dupe scare" and haven't come back down. It's totally artifical; a very small group controls these phats. Even if you go on the forums, the only people buying/selling are merchers, trading between themselves. Just one or two outside players intervening in this market is enough to change their prices.

You're definitely right about lower rares. This is the only market the average player can still get into.

As an aside about the 2017 spike that you keep mentioning, back then I created an app called RuneRares to monitor those trends. The app is still available, just not on the Google Play store anymore. Here is a screenshot from the app before I discontinued updating prices (a discontinued app for discontinued items, heh). I really wonder if this 2020 rares spike is going to come crashing back down or stay up.

Blue Phat, 2017:


Santa Hat, 2017:
Creator of RuneRares (no longer available). Been playing 15+ years.

06-Jul-2020 02:40:33

Trip180

Trip180

Posts: 16,702 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
RichKngMidas said :
Trip180 said :
Midas,

For every seller, there's a buyer. If there were more sellers, then prices would be falling. Currently, prices are steady for phats.

White is weak, which suggests a lack of confidence in phats.

A future update could crash them. DXP would crash them. But will that happen? There was a strong dip, and then it bounced.

I have to disagree with the first bit you said. There is not always a buyer for every seller, especially in the partyhat market. I myself have spent well over a month, at times, trying to move a blue due to lack of buyers.


What I meant is for every successful seller, there's a buyer. Probably 5 blues trade a day. If you didn't manage to trade for a month, your price was likely just higher than the market's. Also, you weren't in right place/time.

If you have 100 sellers at 30b, 10 buyers at 25b, and no one willing to budge; that could continue until someone finally gives in. But those 100 sellers aren't going to manage to sell if unwilling to go lower. Because the other 90 buyers are, of course, much lower.

Original message details are unavailable.
But you can easily have more sellers than buyers, in any market, and that doesn't necessarily translate to a decrease in price, especially if the sellers are stubborn and stuck to their prices.

I have observed many times, that when sellers miss a good opportunity to profit, they will opt to hold their phat rather than take a loss, thinking there will be similar opportunities in the future. Not often do I notice phat owners panic selling.

I think Shn's data definitely shows there are currently more partyhat sellers than buyers right at the moment, but that won't necessarily mean a crash or price decrease until, and only if, people become desperate to sell, and start competing their prices down. I don't disagree with you here. I just had meant something different.

Strangely, it seems we had a phat rise this weekend. I cannot for the life of me manage to catch Covid. Perhaps it's because I didn't get vaxxed? The travails of those lacking immunity. :(

06-Jul-2020 09:12:59 - Last edited on 06-Jul-2020 09:14:30 by Trip180

RichKngMidas

RichKngMidas

Posts: 175 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Joe Bill64 said :
Green maak selling at 7-9m in 07-8 just before limit. 10m at the time was crazy but 700-750 now, not crazy? Things are intetesting, imo.

Actually, all the hweens are pretty cheap right now, relatively speaking, and compared to the rest of the market, especially if you look at their historical ratios, which do still have some meaning. In 2010, like I mentioned, a Green mask was worth about a santa hat. And 16 of them would have bought you a blue partyhat! Now to buy a blue you would need about 50 greens and a santa is worth about two of them.

All the hweens are really undervalued right now, imo. They're very rare. Just don't have the market demand yet. I'm known as Rich King Midas, and when you look at me, you'll see a king who knows a thing about his treasury. I never cared for women. I've never cared for wine. But when I count a large amount of money - ha ha - it's divine!

06-Jul-2020 14:04:04 - Last edited on 06-Jul-2020 16:17:42 by RichKngMidas

Shn
Aug Member 2023

Shn

Posts: 406 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
RichKngMidas said :
Joe Bill64 said :
Green maak selling at 7-9m in 07-8 just before limit. 10m at the time was crazy but 700-750 now, not crazy? Things are intetesting, imo.

All the hweens are really undervalued right now, imo. They're very rare. Just don't have the market demand yet.

They absolutely are undervalued rn. I personally feel lower rares are unstable at the moment. I'm not sure if there are too many circulating such that they can't sustain a big price rise for long. Would be terrible to buy a bunch of masks and then at the end of summer they crash.

I also think white phats are undervalued as well (just bought one). They're 6b away from blue atm. For a lot of the time since 2017 I believe the gap was under 4b for a while. So either blue is too expensive or white is too weak! Creator of RuneRares (no longer available). Been playing 15+ years.

06-Jul-2020 15:53:39

RichKngMidas

RichKngMidas

Posts: 175 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
@ shn

In 2016-2017, you had massive growth for these items and only a slight correction, but for the most part the prices stuck. Only phats had major crashes and weren't able to maintain those prices. Hweens, for example, from 2016-17 experienced about a 128% growth in three months time. They shed 18% of their growth, four months later, and kept those new prices, at a stable 110% up from its 2016 price for the next 4 years, until, of course this recent run, which has been relatively minor compared the 2017 parallel. Santa hats experienced even better performance, then and this time around.

I personally think these runs, for lowers, at least, will have a slight correction, but will mostly stick at maybe a 20% correction max. I also feel that their growth has at least another 50% to go, and is far from finished.

Phats ... idk. I feel like they will shed 30-40% or more and remain there for a bit, unless their owners band together and opt for mythological pricing, which is also a possibility, since its a very closed-off market anyway.

Edit: I would like to note that the run did begin a few weeks prior to any of the duping claims coming out. But I do agree that the impact of those claims furthur inflated these markets. I'm known as Rich King Midas, and when you look at me, you'll see a king who knows a thing about his treasury. I never cared for women. I've never cared for wine. But when I count a large amount of money - ha ha - it's divine!

06-Jul-2020 15:54:59 - Last edited on 06-Jul-2020 16:05:18 by RichKngMidas

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