RuneScape Forum Archive | ~Disc. Items Discussion v1~

Mytrix

Posts: 319 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Hey RS’ers! 3 years ago, at the (at the time) massive explosion of lower and higher rares in 2017, I made an analysis of G.E. frequenties. This made it possible to at least see how many of each rare is active compared to eachother in %. Hopefully you find it interesting to read!

<< THIS WAS MY THREAD 3 YEARS AGO >>

Hi and welcome. In this thread I am speculating about the amount of traded rares left in the game.

First of all, I am an old-school RuneScape player. Started in 2005 and from the moment I saw my first Santa hat in-game I was fascinated about rares. I worked hard (killing cows for cowhides and melting steel bars) to get my first Santa hat. From then on I started merchanting rares until I stopped in 2011 when I achieved my wanted collection of rares, my goal.
In 2012 and 2013 I did come online just a few times, but in July 2017 I got back for a moment and started flipping some rares again, just for the fun of it. Nowadays I stopped doing that, market got boring again!

Anyways enough about me... let's get to the point.

I realized Jagex did introduce new rares in the game. One is called 'holly wreath'. The interesting part is that Jagex also said how many were introduced into the game. This is very interesting, because this gives finally the chance to make a very good guess of how many rares are still being traded (active) in the game at this moment!

Let me explain, it's easy. The G.E. updates the prices based on the traded volume of the item. Now it is possible to predict how many are still active by making a first good guess how many 'holly wreaths' are active. If this number is well predicted, it is very easy to use interpolation based on these numbers to predict other rares their volume. When an item is above the maximum of the G.E. it is obviously not possible anymore to make a good prediction. People don’t realize it, but Jagex gave us already pretty good numbers in an indirect way.

12-Aug-2020 15:08:56

Mytrix

Posts: 319 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

NOTE: the calculations have been made from February 2017 until 10 Augustus 2017! The calculations are made on 11 Augustus 2017.

So here we go...

First of all, we had to guess how many unique holly wreaths are traded within the past 6 months. Based on some experience and realistic thoughts, I assumed there are around 20% unique wreaths being traded. Others are at people their bank (never traded) or some even lost by many methods. That makes around 200 unique holly wreaths being traded through the G.E. in the past 6 months.

The price of holly wreath updated 7 times in the past 6 months (as of 11 August 2017). That makes 7 updates for a volume of 200 holly wreaths. Now let’s do the math for the other rares.

First row gives the rare item. The second is the update frequency (6 month). The third row is the traded volume in the G.E.

Holly Wreath

Update frequency: 7
Traded volume: 200

Christmas Scythe

Update frequency: 33
Traded volume: 943

Half full wine jug

Update frequency: 0,25 to 0,50
Traded volume: 7 to 14

Disk of returning

Update frequency: 1
Traded volume: 30

Pumpkin

Update frequency: 2
Traded volume: 57

Easter egg

Update frequency: 8
Traded volume: 229

Black Santa hat
Update frequency: 19
Traded volume: 543

Santa hat

Update frequency: 72
Traded volume: 2057

Red hallowe’en mask

Update frequency: 16
Traded volume: 457

Blue hallowe’en mask

Update frequency: 19
Traded volume: 543

12-Aug-2020 15:09:36 - Last edited on 12-Aug-2020 15:10:57 by Mytrix

Mytrix

Posts: 319 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Green hallowe’en mask

Update frequency: 26
Traded volume: 743

If we calculate the percentage of Christmas Scythes after interpolation to the volume (because we know there are 5000 introduced!), we have 18,86%. This is very close to the 20% we predicted of unique active wreaths earlier! This means that the percentage gives confirmation that the G.E. update frequency is correlated to the traded volume!

The amount of red Santa hats is high, but it did not surprise me. Based on experience and buy-outs from back in the days with friends I know there were (are) a lot of these in circulation. So the amount is realistic if you consider for example some people owning /did own 100+ of them for merchanting purpose.

* All based on trades done in the past 6 months, except half wine is based on a 4 year period to have data. Also Black Santa hat is from a year ago, because it has been above max for the past month(s).

NOTE these statements:
• From the moment, an item disappears above max cash in G.E. the trade volume goes down significantly. Many people trade on street, therefore prices can be more influenced.
• If an item is a stand-alone, like black Santa hat, it is more likely to go higher in price. If you look at the range for bsh and Red mask for example. Many people say red Santa hat is also a stand-alone, but as far as my experience goes (since 2005), red Santa hats have always been dependent of h'ween masks. Black Santa hat is not for example, on 10 august 2017 h'ween masks en red Santa hat crashed, black Santa hat kept stable/rising).
• This also shows clearly, that rarity is not the biggest factor in price. For example, look at red Santa hat versus green h'ween mask.

12-Aug-2020 15:09:43 - Last edited on 12-Aug-2020 15:10:40 by Mytrix

Mytrix

Posts: 319 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Besides the thing above!
My experience based on rises like this happening with the rares (during G.E. period of RS) is compared to 2010 (example: Santa hat tripled), 2017 (example: Santa hat tripled) and other years/rises is that we will experience the correction (crash) within August. Probably within a few days or 1 week.

Just look at for example 2017, rise started around May (or even little bit April), big crash was on 10th of August 2017. This trend happened a lot of times in RS history. I came back online, just because it finally (after a long and boring time), started again. Every single time I cash out my lowers collection and rebuy within 2 weeks/1month later and also rebuying more rares than I sold. In 2017 alone, I purchased 3 extra Santa hats, an extra h’ween set + half full wine for around max cash. This year… we will see!

I do never flip my partyhats however, to much hassle… don’t like to be online all the time to make a sale. But… if you do take time so sell and rebuy these, you make even much much more! Anyways, not for me anymore

12-Aug-2020 15:09:43 - Last edited on 12-Aug-2020 15:12:02 by Mytrix

Mytrix

Posts: 319 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Another interesting fact!

I see people making calculations for Black Santa hat. Based on my calculations and also assuming almost the same amount (in %) of Holly Wreaths was actively being traded, we can see there are 2.715 Black Santa hats approx in RS. If we do the same for Scythes -> 4.715 Scythes in RS, this is very close to the 5000. All these predictions are made through the G.E. update frequentie and assuming the same % of active rares are traded for each individual rare. This makes why we don’t get the exact 5000 number, but getting close.

So we can say there are indeed between 2k-3k Black Santa hats in game. Probably more around 3k.

12-Aug-2020 15:32:31

Sep

2023

H Rassy

Posts: 17,469 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

@above:Ty for posting this! This is quiet interesting.

I think you are correct in most of your estimates but it also does raise a few questions.
Going by the numbers above it would seem that 25 trades are needed to trigger a price update.
(asuming jagex likes to pick simple numbers like 10,25,100,1000 etcetera for the price update to trigger).

Santa updates once every 5 days and there surely are more then 25 santas traded every 5 days?
Even if only "unique" santas would count (so counting the back and forth selling of the same santa as 1,possibly to prevent people from manipulating the price) the number would surely be higher then 25 unique santas traded every 5 days?

13-Aug-2020 01:18:09 - Last edited on 13-Aug-2020 01:19:29 by H Rassy

Mytrix

Posts: 319 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

H Rassy said :
@above:Ty for posting this! This is quiet interesting.

I think you are correct in most of your estimates but it also does raise a few questions.
Going by the numbers above it would seem that 25 trades are needed to trigger a price update.
(asuming jagex likes to pick simple numbers like 10,25,100,1000 etcetera for the price update to trigger).

Santa updates once every 5 days and there surely are more then 25 santas traded every 5 days?
Even if only "unique" santas would count (so counting the back and forth selling of the same santa as 1,possibly to prevent people from manipulating the price) the number would surely be higher then 25 unique santas traded every 5 days?

Hi H Rassy! I remember you from back in the days

@ your estimate, I think it is a bit more complex than only numbers of trades. On a side note, we also took assumptions about the trading volume of wreaths (which I also based on unique active trading volume and not the same Holly Wreath being traded more times). However, I do think if a trading volume reaches a treshhold, it will be updated based on a few other things too.

Another interesting point to make is that I based my numbers on unique active trading volume . Considering that 200 (20%) of Holly Wreaths at the time were being traded, many of these multiple of times, but that doesn’t matter. That means that based on for example RSH, there were at the time around 2k of unique red Santa hats being traded . It stays speculation, but I think it gives a better close look, purely based on numbers and some facts.

13-Aug-2020 10:40:41 - Last edited on 13-Aug-2020 10:41:45 by Mytrix

Trip180

Posts: 16,702 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Either santa/h'ween will fall or phats will rise
Either yellow, green, purple, red will fall, or white and blue will rise
Either wreath will fall or bsh will rise

Imo.

My justification for whaling on blue for 33b when recent trades seem to be mostly lower.

Maybe white will pass blue next year? Maybe purple will fall back to where it belongs? Maybe blue h'ween will pass red h'ween?

I cannot for the life of me manage to catch Covid. Perhaps it's because I didn't get vaxxed? The travails of those lacking immunity.

14-Aug-2020 17:57:02 - Last edited on 14-Aug-2020 18:00:57 by Trip180

Trip180

Posts: 16,702 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Mytrix said :
traded volume of the item. These do not look accurate to me. I cannot for the life of me manage to catch Covid. Perhaps it's because I didn't get vaxxed? The travails of those lacking immunity.

14-Aug-2020 17:58:20

Mytrix

Posts: 319 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

In my opinion lower rares are now having their last great run, when they accelerate like this at their nearing peak at end of August, it means the “correction” will start soon. Prices will get stable at their lowest in March, based on history of rises/falls. One of the deepest points in price will most likely be available within 2 weeks/1 month after the crashing will occur.

Based on history, I predict these prices in March/February (I have been right several times back in time

)

GHM: was stable at 425 -> settle 750-850
BHM: was stable at 525 -> settle 950-1050
RHM: was stable at 660 -> settle 1200-1300
RSH: was stable at 825 -> settle ~1300-1650

I am curious if my predictions will be right! time will tell!

If you have other predictions, please share!! Would love to hear. Also state on what facts you think these prices will settle, interesting to know

17-Aug-2020 10:47:53 - Last edited on 01-Sep-2020 12:38:29 by Mytrix

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