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Golden Partyhat Discussion

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Trip180

Trip180

Posts: 16,702 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
How many tree hats in game? I cannot for the life of me manage to catch Covid. Perhaps it's because I didn't get vaxxed? The travails of those lacking immunity. :(

08-Dec-2021 11:54:44 - Last edited on 08-Dec-2021 11:55:14 by Trip180

SlR
Nov Member 2020

SlR

Posts: 4,378 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
EST
Bond: 35m
GP shard: 30m
- Entry cost: 65m
Time required: 20hr

100m: 35m/20hr: 1.75m/hr
200m: 135m/20hr: 6.75m/hr
300m: 235m/20hr: 11.75m/hr

I reckon the lowest it'll go is 200m; it'll come down to the time and cost to acquire one above anything else. I personally think there'll be 75k of them by the time event ends. Bob says:
A bank PIN will keep your items secure.
Always check the second trade screen.
Never trade in the Wilderness!
Keep your computer keylogger-free and virus scanned.
Never give your password out to anyone.

08-Dec-2021 14:48:33

Van Berick

Van Berick

Posts: 1,600 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
SlR said :
EST
Bond: 35m
GP shard: 30m
- Entry cost: 65m
Time required: 20hr

100m: 35m/20hr: 1.75m/hr
200m: 135m/20hr: 6.75m/hr
300m: 235m/20hr: 11.75m/hr

I reckon the lowest it'll go is 200m; it'll come down to the time and cost to acquire one above anything else. I personally think there'll be 75k of them by the time event ends.

What I've though my range is 180m-220m. I'd say 75k be on high end but possible. I'd figure 35-70K. I think the price will hit its low shortly since now most casual players will have gotten theirs who can only play an hour or so every few days. As well the lower prices will cut out some farmers due to not current value but know some sell a hat to pay for alts. While may be profit a 200m hat is close to earn one sell one. Maybe earn 3 sell 1.

08-Dec-2021 15:02:08

Lelouch Vi B
Jan Member 2017

Lelouch Vi B

Posts: 2,111 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
The Atlantis said :


When I said there would be between 2k-10k hats in-game I was basing it on the price, because usually, the price can tell us a lot about the supply.

When 5k Scythes got released, the price was at 70-50m, and this was back in 2014. However, gp has lost a lot of value since then, so it's hard to tell how much 50m would be in todays gp, but we could take a look at OSRS gold, currently it's like 1/9 RS3 - > OSRS - So I would probably say, it would be around 300-500m today (if it was released this year)

So, if Golden Phat is at 300m atm, we can probably tell that there is around 5-7k in-game



.....

How in the heck do you believe this is how you gauge the number of an item in the game???

You claim to be experienced in this, yet you have zero understanding of the fact that an iem needs to stabilize before you can start making these estimations. And no conceptual understanding of inflation and how it affects your ability to compare items from different times; You can't just say that OSRS is BASED on that time (not in that time) and say it's a good comparison.

By your method, I can estimate there are 50,000,000 blue party hats in the game because they were worth 5k on release while the gphat was worth 6b.

Every guess you've made so far (yes, they've all been guesses, there's been no method to it other than it's what you feel) has been wrong. Yet you continue to act smug as though you're the only person here who really knows what's going on.

I truly feel bad for everyone who was convinced by your arguments; just think of all the money they've lost so far. The steady decline has ended and now begins the crash. People stocking up on them failed to secure a large enough stake to influence the price and thus, are now panic selling to recoup costs. Now with added
[SARCASM]
Warnings for those less astute!

Archaeology Elite Skill Suggestion

08-Dec-2021 17:11:06 - Last edited on 08-Dec-2021 17:36:35 by Lelouch Vi B

Liquid Chalk

Liquid Chalk

Posts: 5 Bronze Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
As price has diminished incentive to farm has significantly dropped, also many people sold out hoping to buy low (200mish). Over the coming days everyone will panic pile in as their ability to buy a good looking once in 20 year rare diminishes.

I'd say close to all the main or actual accounts have their free phat now and despite what the extreme cases of farming are it was probably a lot less prevalent than the doomsayers thought.

Personally I expect them to level off near 1b after the new year and act as a currency for lower rares and possibly the coloured phats.

All this talk of how many there are is moot as Easter eggs. pumpkins, disks, wine have been super cheap compared to rarity since at least free trade came back but their price action is bad because they hold no in game use as a cosmetic.

What it comes down to is do people like this rare, does it look nice, is there multiple RS trillionaires that can buy up thousands easily and will they catch on as a useful currency for trading anything above max cash?

08-Dec-2021 19:20:38

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