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Golden Partyhat Discussion

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The Atlantis
Nov Member 2023

The Atlantis

Posts: 508 Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Actually, the first Golden Partyhat was sold for 6b, lots got sold for max cash too. So you're wrong AGAIN *pretends to be shocked*

As I said 10000000000 times before on this thread, the price reflects the supply and demand.

Why can't your little brain understand this?

Golden Phat has been between 400-700m since release pretty much now, and YES, the majority has entered the game, believe it or not, that's on you.

You state: "
Every other single case of a modern rare has seen it drop from its launch value and hover at well under it for months to years before going up
."

When:
1. Black Santa rose from release date.
2. Wreath rose from release date.
3. Xmas scythe rose from release date.
4. Christmas Tree hat rose from release date.
5. Pet of seasons rose from release date.

and everything else that isn't tokens.

I was literally here when all of these items got released, and I was collecting and holding most of them. I have witnessed what happened and what IS happening now with golden partyhats. You're a fool if you think that these are junk and that they will drop to 200m lmao

I can't wait to find you in a year and laugh at you when the Golden Partyhat hits 3b+

03-Dec-2021 22:02:52

Lelouch Vi B
Jan Member 2017

Lelouch Vi B

Posts: 2,111 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
The Atlantis said :
Actually, the first Golden Partyhat was sold for 6b, lots got sold for max cash too. So you're wrong AGAIN *pretends to be shocked*

As I said 10000000000 times before on this thread, the price reflects the supply and demand.

Why can't your little brain understand this?

Golden Phat has been between 400-700m since release pretty much now, and YES, the majority has entered the game, believe it or not, that's on you.

You state: "
Every other single case of a modern rare has seen it drop from its launch value and hover at well under it for months to years before going up
."

When:
1. Black Santa rose from release date.
2. Wreath rose from release date.
3. Xmas scythe rose from release date.
4. Christmas Tree hat rose from release date.
5. Pet of seasons rose from release date.

and everything else that isn't tokens.

I was literally here when all of these items got released, and I was collecting and holding most of them. I have witnessed what happened and what IS happening now with golden partyhats. You're a fool if you think that these are junk and that they will drop to 200m lmao

I can't wait to find you in a year and laugh at you when the Golden Partyhat hits 3b+



I said "the first hats were sold for like 1.2b." I said nothing of the very first hat. Hats on the first day were going for a little over 1b on average. Your point only weakens your argument. This hat has lost over 92% of its starting value in 2 weeks.

Black Santa, Wreath and Scythe all only have value because their numbers are known. Black santa was not worth much until jagex confirmed its rarity. The wreath and scythe were known to be rare before they started dropping. You're using outliers to support a pattern that doesn't exist.

Pet of seasons is unique. As people claim the tokens, there's less and less on the market. Of course the price will go up as the number goes down.
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03-Dec-2021 22:09:30 - Last edited on 03-Dec-2021 22:31:51 by Lelouch Vi B

Destruction

Destruction

Posts: 63,021 Emerald Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
The Atlantis said :


I can't wait to find you in a year and laugh at you when the Golden Partyhat hits 3b+


Oh god I wish, I'll be very very happy person
The action or process of causing so much damage to something that it no longer exists or cannot be repaired.

03-Dec-2021 22:10:13

Lelouch Vi B
Jan Member 2017

Lelouch Vi B

Posts: 2,111 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
The Christmas tree hat DID NOT go up after release.

It crashed massively by over 80% for years, before finally gaining value.

Want proof? Here you go.


Now some people with feeble understandings of the market may look at that graph and say "SEE! It shot up to 54m right after release!" And those people would be idiots, because the GE does not track the actual value of new items. That hat was dropping in value the entire time it was going up in the GE. It just took that long for the GE to catch up to the falling market value.

By the way I sold my tree hats at about 60m back then too and bought back several for 6m each. So yeah, I have experience with this.

So what items have you used to support your argument?

3 Items that players knew were rarer than some classic rares. Which this hat won't be.

1 item that is constantly decreasing in availability because it's a consumable.

1 item that just plain doesn't have the value graph you claim it does. You're lying or ignorant.



So what are some modern rares that are actually comparable because they don't have a limited supply and aren't consumable?

Crown of Seasons? Worthless for years until recently.
Season outfit pieces? Worthless for years until recently.
Tree hat? Worthless for years until recently.
Fish mask? Worthless for years and still so.


You think this thing is gonna hit 3b, but Christmas scythe is at 3b and i guarantee there are already at least twice as many ghats in game as there are scythes AT LEAST. Given we know thousands entered the game on the very first day of a 40 day event. So either the entire population of the game needs to suddenly lose all understanding of the concept of supply and demand, or you're fooling yourself. Alternatively, you could be malicious in trying to fool others into buying Items you want to profit on.

Of course this hat will eventually gain value; after many years. Most players would make more money faster by just learning telos.
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03-Dec-2021 22:11:30 - Last edited on 03-Dec-2021 22:37:54 by Lelouch Vi B

The Atlantis
Nov Member 2023

The Atlantis

Posts: 508 Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
@LELOUCH V1 B

Take a look at the graph of Black Santa hat and Christmas Scythe, they all rose, slowly throughout the years until 2020.

Every single rare item skyrocket from 2020, and that's because we have entered a new era on RS3

If you think players are as "stupid" as they were in the early years (2013) about rares then you are wrong.

Many know that GP on RS3 is losing value every minute, because of the huge inflation, and where should you store your gold without it losing value? Rares.

That's exactly why we saw the huge rise graphs from 2020.

I am sorry that you're so much behind, and still think this is 2013 lol.

Honestly, it tells me enough just the fact that you think it matters that the event is 40 days long, like the majority of active players didn't already get their hats, as you stated you even got 4.... but according to you, a casual player didn't even make one yet! - Funny how you put yourself in the "casual player" category, YET you stated that you made 4 hats, you're going against your own arguments at this point

03-Dec-2021 23:01:14

Lelouch Vi B
Jan Member 2017

Lelouch Vi B

Posts: 2,111 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
The Atlantis said :
@LELOUCH V1 B

Take a look at the graph of Black Santa hat and Christmas Scythe, they all rose, slowly throughout the years until 2020.

Every single rare item skyrocket from 2020, and that's because we have entered a new era on RS3

If you think players are as "stupid" as they were in the early years (2013) about rares then you are wrong.

Many know that GP on RS3 is losing value every minute, because of the huge inflation, and where should you store your gold without it losing value? Rares.

That's exactly why we saw the huge rise graphs from 2020.

I am sorry that you're so much behind, and still think this is 2013 lol.

Honestly, it tells me enough just the fact that you think it matters that the event is 40 days long, like the majority of active players didn't already get their hats, as you stated you even got 4.... but according to you, a casual player didn't even make one yet! - Funny how you put yourself in the "casual player" category, YET you stated that you made 4 hats, you're going against your own arguments at this point



Once again, your only examples are items that hold value because they have a well known, very limited supply.

This mythical "new era" you speak of was actually just a tendency for wealthy players to move towards holding their wealth in rares instead of cash because cash isn't very useful for holding onto once you have over a cash stack.

There was no grand understanding that players came to that caused these items to go up. Players have known for years that rares are valuable. All that happened was a large number of wealthy players realized that their banks were peaking even above the value of a max shard stack, so they moved to new value placeholders in rares.

I'm not telling people to hold onto cash; cash is always the worst investment. I'm saying don't buy high. Sell high and use the cash to buy items that you can use to gain more wealth later. Like high lv gear.
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03-Dec-2021 23:17:15

Lelouch Vi B
Jan Member 2017

Lelouch Vi B

Posts: 2,111 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
The Atlantis said :
@LELOUCH V1 B
Honestly, it tells me enough just the fact that you think it matters that the event is 40 days long, like the majority of active players didn't already get their hats, as you stated you even got 4.... but according to you, a casual player didn't even make one yet! - Funny how you put yourself in the "casual player" category, YET you stated that you made 4 hats, you're going against your own arguments at this point


The length of time an item is available to acquire 100% influences the value. The hardcore players will be able to make dozens of these each over the course of the event. And anyone who actually wants one will be able to make it themselves instead of buying because they have plenty of time. Once everyone who wants it makes their own, where is the market to sell them?

And when did I say I was a casual? My joke about my clan? Yes, we're all a bunch of casual comped billionaires? Because that's a thing I guess?

No I don't play casual. But I don't play nearly as hardcore as some other people are during this, because put simply, I don't need the money from these hats. Some people do though and thus, are grinding them way harder. I have a dude on my FL who is working on his 16th hat. He runs multiple alts at once all afking the shards. This dude never had 100m before and now he has to invest in other items because he has too much cash.

If you honestly believe that the average casual player has already made all the hats they're going to this event, then you have been playing so hardcore for so long that you don't remember what casual means. Casual is the people in my FL who literally only have the starting shard because they don't see the rush in getting it done just yet. Casual is the player who hasn't even logged in during this event yet because they're busy with their IM on osrs currently (my brother). But he still plans to get on and make it sometime this month. Casuals don't grind.
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03-Dec-2021 23:27:25

Lelouch Vi B
Jan Member 2017

Lelouch Vi B

Posts: 2,111 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
You also seem to think that the market spikes in one direction or another instantaneously based on the supply of an item. It doesn't. Even if every single hat that will ever be made already exists (which they don't, not even close.) We wouldn't expect the value to instantly drop to its basement immediately. It will drop steadily over the course of weeks to months as players trade them back and forth, realizing they can get them cheaper and cheaper as the demand dries up while supply stays strong.

You honestly expect me to believe that there is a sizable population of players who aren't willing to play for an average of 5-10 minutes a day to get their hat, but they are willing to drop 500m-1b on the hat instead? Really? This is your argument?

As I said; the vast majority of people who want these hats will just make them. The demand will drop considerably and people who bought in early will lose big, while those who sold early will be able to buy them back (if they want them) at a massive profit. I can already buy mine back and still walk away with a 250m profit. And that number will get bigger as the weeks go on. Will I be able to get it back for as low as 100m? Maybe, maybe not. But I certainly won't have to pay more than I sold it for; that's for sure. My second sold for 550m and my third for 502m. My most recent hat is still sitting in at a sell offer for 500m; it ain't budging. Not a great outlook for your theory. If this item really is going to skyrocket over the coming weeks/months, I wouldn't expect to have trouble selling it at 100m under its GE value already. It's got a long way to go to get to 3b.


The Atlantis said :


I can't wait to find you in a year and laugh at you when the Golden Partyhat hits 3b+


And then what? Realize that for the price I sold my hats at, I was able to buy twice as many a month later and am sitting on a 60b profit? Ohh yeah, really got me there on that one.
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03-Dec-2021 23:34:19 - Last edited on 03-Dec-2021 23:54:07 by Lelouch Vi B

2 bill for
Mar Member 2019

2 bill for

Posts: 67 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I feel like a lot of the argument is a lack of willingness to believe stated facts. Also putting too much emphasis on feelings instead of logic, emphasis on the term 'partyhat' 'rare' 'discontinued' like it's extra special because it shares a name and model. it's a bit of a red herring that way. look at the numbers, look at all the people wearing hats, hell, even just take a step back and just look at the hat. it is what it is but it's not a that special. it's the flavor of the month.

Too many apples and oranges comparisons. I have a large gap in RS history when I didn't play so correct me if I'm wrong, but here is no precedent for this where a player has to grind out 20-30hrs, as well has having membership, having 40+ days, and is farmable on alts. Because of all that we use aggregate data from the rares as a whole category instead of cherry picking and comparing against single items.

yes the price will increase as time goes on. but to think the price will be a line going straight up is absolutely wrong. we will see the price go down before we see any significant rise. does it not make sense to sell before this happens? a lot of people so scared of this because you want to hold so you want everyone to do the same regardless. its apparent the ones arguing against selling have a horse in this race. I personally don't, I played around with these for a week and made enough and probably won't mess around with them again. I am keeping 2 hats for myself tho. that being disclosed, this discussion is still interesting to me.

sure you really don't want the price to fall, that's fine, but the market doesn't care what you want. the price will self correct to as demand falters, interest wanes, other shortterm speculators dump, etc. the only real winners are the ones who have enough to buy and hold for the long term while remaining comfortable. the ones spending their entire cash reserve on 1-4 expecting to double their money fast are suffering from wishful thinking.

04-Dec-2021 00:44:47

Married Life

Married Life

Posts: 203 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
2 bill for said :
yes the price will increase as time goes on. but to think the price will be a line going straight up is absolutely wrong. we will see the price go down before we see any significant rise. does it not make sense to sell before this happens? a lot of people so scared of this because you want to hold so you want everyone to do the same regardless. its apparent the ones arguing against selling have a horse in this race.

Couldn't have said it any better.
And at the end of the day, we are all buyers and sellers, so can't we all just get along?
It's Christmas you know! Goodwill to men and all that. ;)

04-Dec-2021 01:47:20

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