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Golden Partyhat Discussion

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99 Div Skill

99 Div Skill

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KorbenDalass said :
I'd imagine the event will be heavily front loaded in terms of phat numbers, everyone who is interested in grinding for one is likely already doing it or finished. They'll still trickle in over the event time but all the srs players got to work on shard accumulation asap, and like Mgamer said ^, getting one on a new alt is awful.

Also there's the whole thing about market psychology, if majority of participants think one thing is going to happen it usually won't (in this case, price crashing super hard from here so everyone can stack a ton of gold phats for super cheap)

seems like the floor is being established at ~400M, maybe yak trak shard tanks it for a little bit but I'll be a buyer if it does
The yak track shard could break the dam. If the hat rises to 900m before then, the dam goes and the crash will be epic. The more it rises in the next 3 days, the worse it will be :) But hey, it just rose 100m so maybe the crowd believe "front-loaded" and "altproof" event theory. I just think there's a 35 day flood coming. Either way we're all here to enjoy the show.

25-Nov-2021 23:57:14

BeeperBill
Dec Member 2023

BeeperBill

Posts: 10 Bronze Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
99 Div Skill said :
KorbenDalass said :
I'd imagine the event will be heavily front loaded in terms of phat numbers, everyone who is interested in grinding for one is likely already doing it or finished. They'll still trickle in over the event time but all the srs players got to work on shard accumulation asap, and like Mgamer said ^, getting one on a new alt is awful.

Also there's the whole thing about market psychology, if majority of participants think one thing is going to happen it usually won't (in this case, price crashing super hard from here so everyone can stack a ton of gold phats for super cheap)

seems like the floor is being established at ~400M, maybe yak trak shard tanks it for a little bit but I'll be a buyer if it does
The yak track shard could break the dam. If the hat rises to 900m before then, the dam goes and the crash will be epic. The more it rises in the next 3 days, the worse it will be :) But hey, it just rose 100m so maybe the crowd believe "front-loaded" and "altproof" event theory. I just think there's a 35 day flood coming. Either way we're all here to enjoy the show.

The idea that the event will be heavily front loaded with a 40+ day time limit is crazy, the moment i saw the time frame the idea of rushing it disappeared and the idea of getting multiple on alts come too mind, even with no stats.

Id say their is a good chance that all 'active' players over the next 40days will get one, 'highly active' players will get multiple. 20k-40k players daily, only 'thousands' in-game currently kinda shows to me that not many people are rushing it. Most are probably waiting for pak yak to farm it with alts.

I believe that their will be 10's of thousands of them in-game, possibly 50k+ given the time frame, but we might see a shortage in supply in the short term.

26-Nov-2021 01:21:25

2 bill for
Mar Member 2019

2 bill for

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The novelty and FOMO factor factors heavily into pricing. It's not sustainable though, it will wane. A large group of the playerbase simply can't afford to hold onto a 400m-500m cosmetic in the long run. Lots of risk/reward in the coming months though. It really depends at what price hoarding begins and if the hoarders can afford to do so with the amount of hats entering the game by the end.

26-Nov-2021 01:34:40

Draco Burnz
Dec Member 2011

Draco Burnz

Posts: 79,296 Emerald Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
2 bill for said :
The novelty and FOMO factor factors heavily into pricing. It's not sustainable though, it will wane. A large group of the playerbase simply can't afford to hold onto a 400m-500m cosmetic in the long run. Lots of risk/reward in the coming months though. It really depends at what price hoarding begins and if the hoarders can afford to do so with the amount of hats entering the game by the end.

How is there FOMO with this?

You do know the hat will always be around right? Its not getting removed once the event ends all thats happening is that new ones wont be entering the game.

So how anyone can get FOMO from this is baffling. I mean no got FOMO from the original phats.
Draco Burnz
Anime Fanatic
Defender of the logical

26-Nov-2021 03:55:27

2 bill for
Mar Member 2019

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Draco Burnz said :
2 bill for said :
The novelty and FOMO factor factors heavily into pricing. It's not sustainable though, it will wane. A large group of the playerbase simply can't afford to hold onto a 400m-500m cosmetic in the long run. Lots of risk/reward in the coming months though. It really depends at what price hoarding begins and if the hoarders can afford to do so with the amount of hats entering the game by the end.

How is there FOMO with this?

You do know the hat will always be around right? Its not getting removed once the event ends all thats happening is that new ones wont be entering the game.

So how anyone can get FOMO from this is baffling. I mean no got FOMO from the original phats.

ppl look at the price checks and get FOMO panic buying/panic selling. they see missed opportunities. ppl see the price at 410 yesterday and 530 today thats FOMO. ppl are in a rush to finish their shards while the price is right, thats FOMO. its all part of the volatility. if you don't see it there's no explaining it.

26-Nov-2021 04:03:48

Draco Burnz
Dec Member 2011

Draco Burnz

Posts: 79,296 Emerald Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
2 bill for said :


ppl look at the price checks and get FOMO panic buying/panic selling. they see missed opportunities. ppl see the price at 410 yesterday and 530 today thats FOMO. ppl are in a rush to finish their shards while the price is right, thats FOMO. its all part of the volatility.

Ok i can understand the effect as far as money making goes, but theres always going to be a time to make money off it as its never leaving the game.

I mean ppl make money off normal phats all the time so its safe to say ppl will with this one as well.
Draco Burnz
Anime Fanatic
Defender of the logical

26-Nov-2021 04:21:42

The Atlantis
Nov Member 2023

The Atlantis

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99 Div Skill said :
KorbenDalass said :
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The yak track shard could break the dam. If the hat rises to 900m before then, the dam goes and the crash will be epic. The more it rises in the next 3 days, the worse it will be :) But hey, it just rose 100m so maybe the crowd believe "front-loaded" and "altproof" event theory. I just think there's a 35 day flood coming. Either way we're all here to enjoy the show.

It actually rose over 200m already, most players have realised that the 40 days doesn't even matter, because most of the active players have already gotten their hat, so we can probably say that around 80% of accounts have obtained it.

One thing I think you are forgetting is, that everyone wants this hat and to keep it, because they think the price will increase like it did with the Original hats, which it also will, but just not instantly.

So, it's safe to say, investing in the Golden Partyhats is a win no matter what, and EVERYONE and their moms will try to invest in them, I am 100% sure.

I think if the hat hits 1b again before the 40 days, then some players might start creating alts to farm them, but I doubt it will have a huge difference, because I don't think anyone in their right mind will make 100+ alt accounts to farm them, maybe 10.

26-Nov-2021 10:11:32

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