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Green Santa Hat discussion

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Luva Coldone
Jan Member 2023

Luva Coldone

Posts: 278 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
This Green Santa and Gold Phat event brings a whole new dimension into merching .. having been around since almost day dot, and been dabbling in rare flipping up until the item passed the GE limit of 2.147b, and believe me there were a lot of sell or hold situations with lower rares and even purple phats, there were a few tricky times.

I have always traded within the GE limit, can't be bothered being a world2 grandstander, so these 2 new 'rares' offer the opportunity to play around using the GE. I don't think my approach is unique.

If I'm off the mark, so be it, at least it's been fun and reminiscent of days gone by.

28-Dec-2021 09:50:03

Carp Fishin
Apr Member 2020

Carp Fishin

Posts: 250 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I totally disagree with the above post (xsoulshadows). If Jagex wanted to maximise profit on this promotion they would would have said this rare item will never return and it's a one off. It would have increased key sales etc knowing this will definely be a one off time to obtain this rare and it won't be returning.

I don't see how a rare possibly returning "ruins the point of a rare"? That comment makes no sense. The true rares in this game are items that have never returned. The whole point of a rare is it's "rare" because it can or will never return. Partyhats wouldn't be anywhere near as expensive if Jagex come out and said they plan to release them again in the future.

28-Dec-2021 11:56:42 - Last edited on 28-Dec-2021 11:57:35 by Carp Fishin

KCM 92
Aug Member 2023

KCM 92

Posts: 7 Bronze Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Destruction said :
KCM 92 said :
Reality , Gsh price will be roughly around 2,5-3B after the event.

Not even remotely close, why would it be?

Well really simple actually, the chances of obtaining 1 are extremly low , I mean common 1 in 20.000 keys , the people that got 2 or 3 are extremly lucky .. I'm in a huge Clan and only like 6 of us got he GSH , out of the 6 only 1 got it thru the christmas papers ( even the bsh had a higher chance of being obtained before )

I mean its really easy to see that this will definatly rise up in price, same as all rares in the past they all went thru the same process.... ( New Rare, Price super high , Price down , Up , Crash, Sky Rocket ) ...same thing..

Also the reason the market is at chaos right now is because lots of people are making small wins of flips others are just buying them off since they're low at the moment and basically hoarding.

All I'm saying is , if you have one enjoy it and dont get sucked in the chaotic market at the moment.
I myself am very happy I got 1 and I will def. be hanging on to this beauty!

Happy Holidays :-) ! The one and only! ;)

28-Dec-2021 13:17:03

Xsoulshadow
Jan Member 2024

Xsoulshadow

Posts: 723 Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Carp Fishin said :
I totally disagree with the above post (xsoulshadows). If Jagex wanted to maximise profit on this promotion they would would have said this rare item will never return and it's a one off.

I didn't assume their intentions were to maximize profit. My assumption is they want to throw players a curve ball, so that people don't immediately hoard the santa hat. Jagex hasnt created a rare similar to phats and previous santas in a long time, and if they announced it was a 1 time item, I doubt players who got it would be so inclined to sell or merch it. Original Santa as well as H'weens and phats were pretty worthless on their release. At the time, no one really expected them to be worth what they are worth now. And that's what's different this time around. Players are fully expecting a price jump. Or they would be, if not for the re-release of zombie walk and the price dip that's created doubt. I believe that's intentional. Until Jagex officially confirms a re-release and a date for it, I remain skeptic.

28-Dec-2021 23:57:06 - Last edited on 29-Dec-2021 00:02:46 by Xsoulshadow

imcanda2021

imcanda2021

Posts: 3 Bronze Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Sources from Alts and Botting:
Assuming that there are approx. 60,000 active accounts (bots) buying 30 keys via oddments per day based on maximum player count from the following link [1,2]. This is a fairly generous estimate since not all accounts use 30 keys nor are bots. Over 7 days that the grotto runs for, it is 30 x 60 000 x 7 = 12 600 000 TH keys. Based on the green santa drop rate of 1/20000, that is approximately 630 green santa hats. Multiply this by 4 or so to account for gold presents/multi-drops from TH, and this is ~2k green santa hats generated during this event from accounts naturally.

Sources from Player Purchases:
Jagex made 111M last year, and they openly stated 1/3 of their revenue is generated from microtransactions (i.e MTX). Splitting this between RS3 and OSRS, this is approximately 30M or so for RS3. There are 3 major events per year, so it is not unreasonable to assume that 10M is spent during Christmas globally for RS3, which works out to 45 000 000 keys (450keys / $100). This is equivalent to approx. 2250 green santa hats. A reasonable 1.5 factor of safety puts this conservatively at 3k green santas.

In total, there should be 3~5k green santa hats generated during this event.

In my opinion, there are far less GSHs than RSHs in the game, which are currently estimated at 10-15k. If the hat ever gets released in the future, it will take at least 3 consecutive re-releases for the amount to reach parity with the RSH. I personally think the GSH should trend downwards perhaps to 600~700m minimum over the next few days, but should be up 1b+ later this year simply because it is so rare and it is actually nice-looking.

29-Dec-2021 03:08:48 - Last edited on 29-Dec-2021 03:41:54 by imcanda2021

imcanda2021

imcanda2021

Posts: 3 Bronze Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I am also kind of suspecting that big merching clans will start buying out all the stock at a certain price floor. If you think about it, at 1b ea, 5k GSH is worth approx 5T. Heck, some people have banks higher than 1T. I am personally going to buy a couple just to keep, as these have a high chance of rising after the event simply because it isn't Christmas anymore and that they are practically unobtainable until 2022 Dec. There are two reasons why a rare is expensive: because it is actually rare (i.e abomination cape) or because it is time-limited. The green santa is obviously the former, and once supply dries up (aka the massive bot farms near reset time), the price could skyrocket just like on Dec 24-25th when it jumped from 700-1.6b in a single night.

Would welcome any thoughts on the matter!

[1]https://playercounter.com/runescape/
[2]https://www.misplaceditems.com/rs_tools/graph/

29-Dec-2021 03:42:03 - Last edited on 29-Dec-2021 03:46:54 by imcanda2021

Yo Blue
Sep Member 2007

Yo Blue

Posts: 6,443 Rune Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Big merch clans are holding off for the platinum and ruby phats next year.
I'm blue daba dee daba die!
Pulled 14 phats from crackers 5/6
Rank 2 Div

Investing in rares for a better tomorrow.
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''Retired 2016''

29-Dec-2021 06:28:52

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