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Dev Blog: Revealing Drop Rates Thread is sticky

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Lord Drakan
Sep Member 2010

Lord Drakan

Posts: 7,043 Rune Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I fail to see the point. What does transparency about development etc. have to do with the 'revelation' of a number? It won't really help me in any way whatsoever to know the drop rate of any rare item. If I get it, I'd either think 'oh wow I'm lucky' or 'makes sense, it's not stupidly rare' and similar phrases if I don't.

The reasons for keeping the rates secret sound fairly sensible, but the only reason given for revealing them is the transparency argument. If this falls under transparency, then you should probably start revealing each JMod's preferred colour of socks too, because that's a fairly meaningless fact as well... :/

I'm not trying to sound negative, but I see no benefit in this at all. Only thing is it might help the wiki with bookkeeping purposes. Bizarre Boron Fusswell, scryer extraordinaire. OSRS: POH ideas & RS3 minigames & achievement ideas !

Perhaps you're half right; perhaps we can't win. But we can fight.
— Zanik

15-Sep-2017 19:27:32

Furvi

Furvi

Posts: 1,889 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
"not knowing exactly when you were 'owed' a drop."

This part of your reasoning section in the post irks me.

It's a drop chance. Meaning that when a drop occurs, there's a 1:X (or whatever, depending on the specific loot) chance for THAT EXACT DROP to be given. This number does not carry over into the following kill.

Secrecy because you don't want to upset people who can't grasp the basic concept of RNG is a ridiculous reason.

The number doesn't help or hurt people when it comes to earning the drops. It merely informs them of the rough percentile of getting what they want per kill, with that percentile remaining identical kill after kill.

Make it to where highlighting a drop in the Beasts tab shows drop chances. There is absolutely no harm in doing this seeing as how people generally end up compiling kill data and figuring out a rough but close numbers themselves anyway.

15-Sep-2017 22:38:24

Lord Drakan
Sep Member 2010

Lord Drakan

Posts: 7,043 Rune Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Furvi said :
"not knowing exactly when you were 'owed' a drop."

This part of your reasoning section in the post irks me.

It's a drop chance. Meaning that when a drop occurs, there's a 1:X (or whatever, depending on the specific loot) chance for THAT EXACT DROP to be given. This number does not carry over into the following kill.

Secrecy because you don't want to upset people who can't grasp the basic concept of RNG is a ridiculous reason.

The number doesn't help or hurt people when it comes to earning the drops. It merely informs them of the rough percentile of getting what they want per kill, with that percentile remaining identical kill after kill.

Make it to where highlighting a drop in the Beasts tab shows drop chances. There is absolutely no harm in doing this seeing as how people generally end up compiling kill data and figuring out a rough but close numbers themselves anyway.
While you are correct, there's also a binomial distribution here; each kill (trial) you either get the drop or don't, with that parameter. Using the cumulative distribution function, one observes that the probability of not having got a single drop asymptotically approaches zero as the amount of kills goes to infinity. Depending on the parameter, this can be quite a rapid convergence. Bizarre Boron Fusswell, scryer extraordinaire. OSRS: POH ideas & RS3 minigames & achievement ideas !

Perhaps you're half right; perhaps we can't win. But we can fight.
— Zanik

16-Sep-2017 08:02:18

AngryAraxxor

AngryAraxxor

Posts: 4,793 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I just wanna know how the Telos drop system works...I feel like knowing exact drop rates for everything would take a bit of the fun out of PvMing. Like you said, the mystery and excitement is part of the fun. ¸¸¸¸¸¸„‹•°Member of
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16-Sep-2017 16:00:07

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