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Morvran's Prefer/Block

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AoDude

AoDude

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Ok, so I noticed some inconsistency with the way the jmods revealed how preferring works, and the way it is figured in the sheet. (Not sure if on twitter or twitch... Think the rune dragon twitch stream)

Right now, you assume the weight is doubled, but according to a jmod: infact two rolls are taking place. First roll, if you get it, you get it, second invisible roll if it is preferred then that one, rather than the first task, otherwise the first task.

This is akin to the probability of two unrelated events. Like the chances of flipping heads atleast once in "X" number of flips. You get that by figuring the probability of flipping both tails and subtract that from 1, 1-(1/2)^2 making it 75% chance.

So the actual chance of getting a prefered task is 1-((Total Non-Blocked Weight-Task Weight)/Total Non-Blocked Weight)^2. And the chance to get it with slayer vip tickets is 1-((Total Non-Blocked Weight-Task Weight)/Total Non-Blocked Weight)^3.

Figuring it this way you want to have the total chance of preferred in a 3:2 ratio on morvan to break even on canceling tasks. (60% figuring for only tasks with 20 points; it is actually less with the bonus points on 10s/50s)

Edit: 48.4% break even percent, including bonus points. 1600/30=53 1/3 cancels per 50 tasks 50/103.33=48.4%
AO
Deputy-Owner :
The Nexus CC

15-Jun-2015 22:49:46 - Last edited on 15-Jun-2015 22:57:02 by AoDude

Lifer
Jul Member 2008

Lifer

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It'd be this one.

Gwynrwyn said :

Mod Rowley mentioned that the prefer works by making a second roll, and if the second rolled task is preferred while the first is not, it gives you the second task instead.

https://twitter.com/JagexRowley/status/515534763017662464

If you prefer only one task, then you roll 2 dices.

The first dice selects any task to be assigned to you based on what it rolls.

The second dice is exclusive to the preferred task such that if the second dice rolls the preferred task, then you're guaranteed that task - we don't know if it accounts for duplicate tasks or not, but assume it doesn't since it's said to be random.

If the first dice doesn't roll the task you wanted, then refer to the second dice to see if it is the task you wanted. If not then assign whatever the task was rolled with the first dice.

It sounds like doubled weighting.

I haven't taken a stat class yet even though I finished 3 years of college now lol. I understand there's vocabulary such as independent, mutually exclusive etc. Are you sure comparing prefer to the coins is correct?

Thanks for that though, I've been wondering how to figure out the %. The reason why I came up with 39%-42% is because of Dragonseance's post (quoted in next post for reference.) He suggested airuts, dark beasts, celestial dragons, and edimmus for the optimal task list. I figured out the % with that one and it came out to be 39.67% of the total weighting after adjusting prefers and blocks.

Then with dark light being overpowered, he went on to suggest Airuts/Celes/Eddis/Kalgers/Wfs, which came out to be 41.32%.

Seemed to hover around 39%-42% and that's with a claim that at 42% you'd still gain points in the long run.

16-Jun-2015 00:47:25 - Last edited on 16-Jun-2015 01:35:43 by Lifer

Lifer
Jul Member 2008

Lifer

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Dragonseance said :
Since the task list for breakeven points prior to the darklight update was only doing airuts/dbs/celes/eddis, and the update made wfs and kalgers better overall than dbs, dbs are now a block (12 weighting,) and the combined weighting of wfs and kalgers (14) means that you'll still gain points in the long run.

This means the new optimal prefer list is Airuts/Celes/Eddis/Kalgers/Wfs. Blocks are Dbs/Greaters/Elves and your choice of any of the 10 weighting tasks.

[This analysis assumes VIP tickets]

Bonus data: With darklight and oh drygore wfs/kalgers are at least 785 and 280 kph respectively.

16-Jun-2015 00:47:46

Lifer
Jul Member 2008

Lifer

Posts: 12,424 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
If you consider a doing 10,000 tasks...

With 48.4% chance of receiving the desired task, that's 4840 tasks.

And then also, 5160 tasks cancelled.

From those tasks completed, you gain 154880 slayer points.

And you spend 154800 cancelling.

Your numbers does make sense, I'm not sure what Dragonseance was considering.

Edit: See if you can create your own task list of weightings and see what % you get with Dragonseance's tasks?

Also, did you consider the fact that VIP tickets cannot have the same task as the first choice? I don't know if I can see it in the VIP Ticket equation.

16-Jun-2015 01:00:46 - Last edited on 16-Jun-2015 01:11:09 by Lifer

AoDude

AoDude

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Lifer said :
If you consider a doing 10,000 tasks...

With 48.4% chance of receiving the desired task, that's 4840 tasks.

And then also, 5160 tasks cancelled.

From those tasks completed, you gain 154880 slayer points.

And you spend 154800 cancelling.

Your numbers does make sense, I'm not sure what Dragonseance was considering.

Edit: See if you can create your own task list of weightings and see what % you get with Dragonseance's tasks?

Also, did you consider the fact that VIP tickets cannot have the same task as the first choice? I don't know if I can see it in the VIP Ticket equation.

If you roll it on roll 1 or 2 doesn't make a difference for roll 3 (vip ticket) because if it is a success in 1 or 2, the roll as a whole (all 3) is a success no matter what the 3rd one is.

Like you said with the dice, if I want to roll atleast 1 "1" that is 1-((6 options- 1 success)/6 options)^3 rolls = 42% chance

The key is they are unrelated events, (each roll is independent), so after 1 roll is successful, the rest in the set don't matter at that point.

Edit: Ok, I can see what you are saying, because the vip task potentially takes the weight of the first task out of the equation. Making your chances even slightly better yet.

Edit 2: So looking at your list, you have 19 cancel tasks... These weights range from 5-10; average is 7.7; median is 8. So if we take 8 out of the vip ticket the equation would be:

1-(((Total Non-Blocked Weight-Task Weight)/Total Non-Blocked Weight)^2*(((Total Non-Blocked Weight - 8 median task weight)-Task Weight)/(Total Non-Blocked Weight - 8 median task weight)))

Edit 3: Ran the numbers on your sheet.. Looks like with your setup, the vip slight boost is about 0.2-0.3% better chance when accounting for an average cancel task as your first option. It all adds up to 1% better chances over all of your preferred. Not a whole lot, but a touch more accurate.
AO
Deputy-Owner :
The Nexus CC

16-Jun-2015 03:03:09 - Last edited on 16-Jun-2015 03:58:12 by AoDude

Wave Goodbye

Wave Goodbye

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StoutStarmie said :
Is darklight + oh drygore viable at kalgers? I thought post nerf it was best to use mage again

Yes its viable, I was getting 280k slay exp/hr without scrim/familiar easily. Mage with runic/nihil/scrim/tect might be better, but I don't mage slayer tasks.

16-Jun-2015 04:57:42

Lifer
Jul Member 2008

Lifer

Posts: 12,424 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
AoDude said :
.

I probably will consider adding abyssal demons so the summoning ratio can keep up.

Edit: But first, I'll see if I can find time to update the weightings with the prefer probability equation. It may make the current percent chances of desired tasks higher towards 48.4% because:

I think doubling the weighting is linear increased chance (the incorrect way that was done on the sheet,) while your equation is exponential so probably better chances. Hopefully will be done tomorrow.

Edit 2: How do you calculate the non-preferred tasks that are cancelled though? just task weight / total adjusted weight?

16-Jun-2015 05:04:40 - Last edited on 16-Jun-2015 05:40:47 by Lifer

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