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How many rares are left?

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Radyi
Jun Member 2010

Radyi

Posts: 2,036 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Assuming on the 2001 christmas event there were 32 spawn locations for christmas crackers every minute and assuming that it was always picked up by a player there would have been 46,080 crackers on release. Assuming that 95% of those were pulled by a player, using the numbers provided by mod ash about the rarity of the hats we get about 4,378 purple, 6,566 blue, 8,755 green, 10,068 white, 12,257 yellow and 14,008 red from the event at a minimum. With the dupe sending purple to the bottom of the price value back in time, while still retaining some value, I would guess the dupe added 10k purples and probably 1k of the other types. Over time through inactivity, permanent keepsaking, hoarding etc... I would say all hats are around 10% of their original numbers so we would can assume at a minimum there are still actively at least:

1438 Purple
757 Blues
976 Green
1107 White
1326 Yellow
1501 Reds Mass contributor to deaths coffers.

17-Jan-2022 10:18:10

Trip180

Trip180

Posts: 16,702 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Im surprised green is rarer than white. Wiki confirms, but I have trouble believing it. I cannot for the life of me manage to catch Covid. Perhaps it's because I didn't get vaxxed? The travails of those lacking immunity. :(

17-Jan-2022 13:43:29

Radyi
Jun Member 2010

Radyi

Posts: 2,036 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Trip180 said :
Im surprised green is rarer than white. Wiki confirms, but I have trouble believing it.

Based on the numbers I came up with, I think it is very easy for player demand to greatly change how valuable a rare is. Recently we had purple jump from last place to slightly above a green. It definitely helps that shadow dye pairs nicely with the purple and that there are few cosmetics which can match with green/yellow hats outside of master capes. Mass contributor to deaths coffers.

17-Jan-2022 14:41:40

Be Classy

Be Classy

Posts: 80 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Radyi said :
Assuming on the 2001 christmas event there were 32 spawn locations for christmas crackers every minute and assuming that it was always picked up by a player there would have been 46,080 crackers on release. Assuming that 95% of those were pulled by a player, using the numbers provided by mod ash about the rarity of the hats we get about 4,378 purple, 6,566 blue, 8,755 green, 10,068 white, 12,257 yellow and 14,008 red from the event at a minimum. With the dupe sending purple to the bottom of the price value back in time, while still retaining some value, I would guess the dupe added 10k purples and probably 1k of the other types. Over time through inactivity, permanent keepsaking, hoarding etc... I would say all hats are around 10% of their original numbers so we would can assume at a minimum there are still actively at least:

1438 Purple
757 Blues
976 Green
1107 White
1326 Yellow
1501 Reds


This is probably the most valuable insight/tidbit of information I've seen in recent years in regards to Partyhat supply. Much appreciated. "Those who dare to fail miserably can achieve greatly."
- John F. Kennedy

17-Jan-2022 15:21:54

Radyi
Jun Member 2010

Radyi

Posts: 2,036 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Be Classy said :
Radyi said :
Assuming on the 2001 christmas event there were 32 spawn locations for christmas crackers every minute and assuming that it was always picked up by a player there would have been 46,080 crackers on release. Assuming that 95% of those were pulled by a player, using the numbers provided by mod ash about the rarity of the hats we get about 4,378 purple, 6,566 blue, 8,755 green, 10,068 white, 12,257 yellow and 14,008 red from the event at a minimum. With the dupe sending purple to the bottom of the price value back in time, while still retaining some value, I would guess the dupe added 10k purples and probably 1k of the other types. Over time through inactivity, permanent keepsaking, hoarding etc... I would say all hats are around 10% of their original numbers so we would can assume at a minimum there are still actively at least:

1438 Purple
757 Blues
976 Green
1107 White
1326 Yellow
1501 Reds


This is probably the most valuable insight/tidbit of information I've seen in recent years in regards to Partyhat supply. Much appreciated.

Honestly took me like 10 mins to figure out lol. I am surprised that this kind of calculation hasnt been done before, especially with everyone always throwing out some wild guesses for like the past 20 years. Mass contributor to deaths coffers.

17-Jan-2022 17:54:52

I Jonyfrecle

I Jonyfrecle

Posts: 3,702 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Radyi said :
Assuming on the 2001 christmas event there were 32 spawn locations for christmas crackers every minute and assuming that it was always picked up by a player there would have been 46,080 crackers on release. Assuming that 95% of those were pulled by a player, using the numbers provided by mod ash about the rarity of the hats we get about 4,378 purple, 6,566 blue, 8,755 green, 10,068 white, 12,257 yellow and 14,008 red from the event at a minimum. With the dupe sending purple to the bottom of the price value back in time, while still retaining some value, I would guess the dupe added 10k purples and probably 1k of the other types. Over time through inactivity, permanent keepsaking, hoarding etc... I would say all hats are around 10% of their original numbers so we would can assume at a minimum there are still actively at least:

1438 Purple
757 Blues
976 Green
1107 White
1326 Yellow
1501 Reds

Was there only one server back then?

17-Jan-2022 20:16:22

Radyi
Jun Member 2010

Radyi

Posts: 2,036 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I Jonyfrecle said :
Radyi said :
Assuming on the 2001 christmas event there were 32 spawn locations for christmas crackers every minute and assuming that it was always picked up by a player there would have been 46,080 crackers on release. Assuming that 95% of those were pulled by a player, using the numbers provided by mod ash about the rarity of the hats we get about 4,378 purple, 6,566 blue, 8,755 green, 10,068 white, 12,257 yellow and 14,008 red from the event at a minimum. With the dupe sending purple to the bottom of the price value back in time, while still retaining some value, I would guess the dupe added 10k purples and probably 1k of the other types. Over time through inactivity, permanent keepsaking, hoarding etc... I would say all hats are around 10% of their original numbers so we would can assume at a minimum there are still actively at least:

1438 Purple
757 Blues
976 Green
1107 White
1326 Yellow
1501 Reds

Was there only one server back then?

I dont know, I just assumed 1 server because ultimately it was early days and I wasnt playing then. Seeing as the numbers seem pretty reasonable to me, I didnt want to delve into a rabbit hole for the sake of a rs forum post lol. Mass contributor to deaths coffers.

18-Jan-2022 05:42:44

Trip180

Trip180

Posts: 16,702 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I suspect there are more active rares than that, but there's no motive to sell. A lot of people have quit the game but are potentially active in the future.

When you can lend a hat for obscene amounts, why sell? And we can now lend on alts, allowing multiple hat lends per day.

I somewhat wish I still had my set, to lend in that manner. I used to live off welfare in this game for years. I'd buy stuff for others, pay with bonds for my memb, host drop parties, etc. all funded by phat welfare. I didn't flip. I didn't pvm, didn't play the game. I just lent for years. I cannot for the life of me manage to catch Covid. Perhaps it's because I didn't get vaxxed? The travails of those lacking immunity. :(

18-Jan-2022 15:43:49

Trip180

Trip180

Posts: 16,702 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
The single other fun thing to do with a set is to dunge, which I know few do now. But you go with a bunch of randoms, start the floor with one hat, end with another, every so often changing to a new hat while insisting you only have the one. You need 6 keepsaked for that.

There's no other item in game that lets you have that much fun. I dunno why else people want phats though. I cannot for the life of me manage to catch Covid. Perhaps it's because I didn't get vaxxed? The travails of those lacking immunity. :(

18-Jan-2022 15:48:53

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