RuneScape Forum Archive | Rare inflation

Trip180

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SoulHunter said :
Hello. Sorry if this is completely unrelated, I'm very much new to the rares conversation, and I must ask: why is third age so cheap? Is it expected to rise? Owning a melee set has been my dream ever since I was a kid, today I decided to check the price thinking it'd be like 2B for the set and it turns out I can afford it... I know this doesn't fit here because third age is not a discounted item, but still thought I'd ask. Please remove if unallowed 3rd age melee is from treasure trails; so, there are always more coming into the game.

If you like the set, keepsake it and wear something higher level. The game has changed. People wear cosmetic overrides over the armour they're actually wearing. 3rd age is no longer high lvl itself, but it does look nice.

I usually wear a dragon chain and dragon legs override. I keepsaked a fury amulet. I don't know if there's an override for 3a or if you need to keepsake it. I cannot for the life of me manage to catch Covid. Perhaps it's because I didn't get vaxxed? The travails of those lacking immunity.

09-Dec-2020 01:29:02 - Last edited on 09-Dec-2020 01:30:24 by Trip180

Trip180

Posts: 16,702 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

SoulHunter,

the chat thread is here: Item Discussion Chat LoungeThread is sticky

Quick find code: 17-18-960-66174184

It seems like nothing is off topic in that thread. I cannot for the life of me manage to catch Covid. Perhaps it's because I didn't get vaxxed? The travails of those lacking immunity.

09-Dec-2020 01:32:45

Meowing Cat

Posts: 67 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

SoulHunter said :
Hello. Sorry if this is completely unrelated, I'm very much new to the rares conversation, and I must ask: why is third age so cheap? Is it expected to rise? Owning a melee set has been my dream ever since I was a kid, today I decided to check the price thinking it'd be like 2B for the set and it turns out I can afford it... I know this doesn't fit here because third age is not a discounted item, but still thought I'd ask. Please remove if unallowed Clue items will go up and down due to sometimes clue items go up and when mass amount of people starts doing clues.

Meow, Meoow miv moaw. **hhhh SHHHG MOAW MIIIIVVVVVVVV! =^.^=

11-Dec-2020 18:49:56

Loot Maister

Posts: 526 Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

This inflation is unlike anything I've witnessed in my 15 + years playing Runescape. I never really use the forums, but this is just absurd and almost game breaking to be honest. Doing daily "chores" now gives me maybe 30% of the joy/dopamine I used to get gathering resources and saving up for rares before. Doing a herb run now, feels so useless. I might as well be out in the fields picking flax and spinning it to bowstrings like we did in 06.

This extreme inflation started around the time of the dupe. The duel arena has always existed and there is no reason why this should happen just now, and to the extent it is. Anyways, the ball has already started rolling, now every player want to get a hold of anything remotely discontinued as it is not only safe, but a MUST to keep up with the inflation. It feels like every rare increases in price by 10% every day.

I've always loved merching the hated fish mask. And it is TRULY a hated rare, I've never seen anyone actually wear it. It was super easy to get, you only needed a red / rare SOF drop (and the promo lasted for a long time). It has consistently kept a low price for.... as long as it has existed to be honest. I bet there are a million fish masks in game, maybe more.

BOOM, suddenly they went from 3m to 15m in a matter of two months. Up 500%. At normal levels this should have taken years. This is not an natural event, and despite how flawed and hated the Duel Arena might be it has always been a natural part of the game.

11-Dec-2020 21:56:05 - Last edited on 11-Dec-2020 21:56:46 by Loot Maister

Meowing Cat

Posts: 67 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Loot Maister said :
The duel arena has always existed and there is no reason why this should happen just now,

I've always loved merching the hated fish mask. And it is TRULY a hated rare, I've never seen anyone actually wear it. It was super easy to get, you only needed a red / rare SOF drop (and the promo lasted for a long time). It has consistently kept a low price for.... as long as it has existed to be honest. I bet there are a million fish masks in game, maybe more.

BOOM, suddenly they went from 3m to 15m in a matter of two months. Up 500%. At normal levels this should have taken years. This is not an natural event, and despite how flawed and hated the Duel Arena might be it has always been a natural part of the game. Let me explain the Duel Arena part. from someone that have seen it fastly evolve the past year.

around Feb-March the arena had a huge influx of stakers(gamblers) most likly due to covid.
those stakers have of cause stayed around since for one its nearly a 50/50 system and with have easy it is for people to buy and sell gold in huge amounts people simply gamble IRL money pretty much. now the problem beings in the part that the Runescape GP in it self isn't worth much. compared to what amount people want to gamble. the biggest problem in that is the current to ways of sole cash stake are Shards and Coins. but here comes the problem. people want to gamble more. and more. so they turn to items such as rares which isn't create anymore and have a unlimited value pretty much. so every time someone loose a gamble. or wins a stake. they will sell and buy to one of runescape (Rare dealers) and they will always get prices to go up and up. and this limit will most likly never be reached as ''lower rares'' at some point will reach the max shards limit. or even worse. everything in the runescape eco system start being more effected by this inflation... Meow, Meoow miv moaw. **hhhh SHHHG MOAW MIIIIVVVVVVVV! =^.^=

12-Dec-2020 15:51:34

Meowing Cat

Posts: 67 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Loot Maister said :

This extreme inflation started around the time of the dupe.

in terms of the dupe. that jagex havn't even acknowledged.... with pictures of stacks of phats and other rares in the thousands. this shouldn't have made the rares go up. at all. no. it should have crashed every rare or expensive item that was supposely duped. now ofc if the dupe happened. jagex might have removed a huge% of the dupe items and wealth but just an hour giving, selling, duel arena, what ever of those rares and items would have put the market into a crash. and with no real proof of the dupes other than some not to be known bug abuser/duper in a youtube video. i find it unlikly with out major eco crashes. Meow, Meoow miv moaw. **hhhh SHHHG MOAW MIIIIVVVVVVVV! =^.^=

12-Dec-2020 15:58:30

I Jonyfrecle

Posts: 3,702 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Part 1: This post had to be 3 parts due to size

Possible reasons

Price manipulation

First of all, lets be clear on what price manipulation is.
I would define it as tricking enough people into thinking
an item has a certain value , so that the item ends up
actually having that value.

Essentially, people with rares trading with each other in
a collective attempt to increase the value of their rares

This could be possible since prices are generally
agreed to be whatever completed trade has taken place and been
posted on the "official" discord or forum thread.

While this could potentially be true there are a couple of
reasons why I don't believe it's the reason behind the inflation.

1) It would ultimately not work because new buyers would be priced
out of the market, leading to very little demand outside the bubble of
price manipulators.

2) We have also seen a dramatic increase in rare price for items that
can be traded on the ge, which are anonymous trades and therefore
cannot be completely controlled by possible manipulators. This suggests
the dramatic increase in rare item value really has taken place.

However, if price manipulation were taking place, one possible solution could
be increasing the max cash value and only accepting price check trades as trades
taken place on the GE. Doing this would ultimately reveal the true
trade value of these items because manipulators would not be able to control
the who is the buyer or seller of the item traded on the ge.

Inflation

Huge devaluation in the value of gold could also result in inflation.

The principal of inflation is basically, the more currency that is created
and enters into circulation, the less value it has , and therefore, the less
you can buy with it.

If the currency is created and enters the game gradually, we would see a gradual
rise in the cost of many items within the game, over the years.

14-Dec-2020 16:10:01 - Last edited on 14-Dec-2020 16:13:28 by I Jonyfrecle

I Jonyfrecle

Posts: 3,702 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Part 2: This post is 3 parts due to size

Good indicators of inflation are items that have been around for a long time,
are used a lot, and have consistently been of value to players of all levels.

For example
Super potions as they are neccessary for overload potions.
Yak hide because it has been the primary ingredient for pack yak.
Black mask because of its importance in slayer

There are many items, provided they have not been severely affected by an
update, like a new, better item, you can generally see a gradual increase.

If you look at these items you will see that inflation has not had a
dramatic effect on any of them.

Drop in supply, increase in demand

Put simply, more people buying than selling leading to a price increase.
Also a feasible explanation considering no new rares are entering the game.

Runescape is no stranger to sudden rises and falls in item value, especially
when new items enter the game. These sudden rises and falls also often lead
to a reaction from the players. Most runescape players have probably
"panic bought" or "panic sold" items at some point in their runescape lives
and regretted it after seeing the item stabilize a few hours or days later.

However, rares do not seem to be stabilizing so it begs the questions where
the additional hundred of billions of coins are entering the game.
Because even if rares are traded for rares, at some point those rares would
have been bought for gp either through the upgrade of lower value rares bought
on the ge for a higher value rare, or shards bought for coins.

14-Dec-2020 16:10:14 - Last edited on 14-Dec-2020 16:15:00 by I Jonyfrecle

I Jonyfrecle

Posts: 3,702 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Part 3: This post is 3 parts due to its size

Exploits

Another possible reason could be an exploit such as duping.
If the currency was duplicated and used to buy rares then a natural increase
in rare value would occur.
If rares were duplicated and sold for coins, the opposite would happen.

For duplication to affect the prices like it has, it would have
to be duping on an unprecedented scale. To increase the prices of all rares
by 2-4x in the space of half a year we would be talking trillions of coins
entering the game.

If this were the case then you would assume a sudden increase in value after
the event took place, then a destabilization of prices.

Duel arena

People driving the value of partyhats up due to a demand for staking.

I find this theory a little hard to beleive because there are many items
to use if you need to do a high value stake. The idea that 1 or 2 people
demanding that all their fights should be partyhat vs partyhat doesnt
quite make sense for the change in price that we've seen.

After all, the duel arena is not a new place.

Would be interested to know what other people think about these possible reasons, if they think one is more likely than the other, or something completely different.

14-Dec-2020 16:10:33 - Last edited on 14-Dec-2020 16:17:03 by I Jonyfrecle

Dec

2006

The Moo

Posts: 1,474 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

There is actual inflation, don't use black masks as everyone only needs one, the true indicator is skilling supplies, just look at rocktails and mahogany planks from the price in november 2019 til now.

14-Dec-2020 17:36:15

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Rare inflation