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Bad drop rate

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Archaeox
Dec Member 2011

Archaeox

Posts: 53,399 Emerald Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
*sigh*

Drop rates are chance to get something, not a guarantee that you will get one after a certain number of kills/actions.

That chance is always exactly the same: so if the drop rate is 1/512, it is still 1/512 for every kill/action, irrespective of how many have gone before: chance has no memory .
~~~~ Just another victim of the ambient morality ~~~~

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28-Jun-2023 15:55:14

Tomato 56789
Apr Member 2022

Tomato 56789

Posts: 15,317 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
As others explained, it's chance - not set in stone.

Let's take hellhounds as an example. The "drop rate" for hard clues is 1/64. You can kill 64 and no clue. You can kill 128 and no clue. You can kill 300 and no clue (I've been there). However - you can also kill 12 and get 5 clues in those 12...which has also happened to me before. I think my record was 15 or 16 clues in like 5 minutes which isn't even 200 kills. As others said it's like rolling a die, though I think Jagex compared drops to being more similar to a wheel. Now if you just start on killing hellhounds it won't be 1/64. Might be 1/200, might be 1/5. The "drop rates" come from larger quantities. If you were to kill, say, 90,000 hellhounds it's almost a guarantee you'd have received around 1400 hard clues from them...give or take 10-20ish. When you do the math you come within the ballpark of 1/64. This applies to almost all RNG where there aren't prerequisites to receive the drop / things that effect the rate.
Casual legacy trash of 19 years in RS, author of 6 books irl

06-Jul-2023 16:40:03

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