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Lifting Max-Cash Implications

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Dr Goldfire
May Member 2012

Dr Goldfire

Posts: 2,553 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
King Wulfe said :
I do hope we see a balance, I know OSRS did something similar "GE tax" and it seemed to stabilize the market a bit but I don't know how the GE limit will work. I bet there will still be people trading rare items how they are currently doing it but new rare owners might stick to the GE to avoid any potential scams.
But will stock be bought up right away on GE if the prices are lower?
Will it just put items back in the hands of Hoarders or shady accounts? Not sure.
I do think that over all, long term the market will cool down and we will see steady numbers. Hopefully inflation can be curved soon as the prices from 2015 to 2022 blow my mind!
Nice to see that at least some of us do realize it - 2015 to 2022. If you draw this into the long-term chart you will see that the correction is unavoidable. Size of dynamics we witnessed upwards will also tell the future dynamics how to behave downwards.

Translated to common language: prices will go down as easy as they went up.
Everything, ranging from sub-atomic particles to galaxy clusters, has its dynamics predefined. And then there are people claiming that systems like economy, society or other human sub-systems are in our hands.

A girl without freckles is like a night without stars.

22-Jul-2022 15:04:06 - Last edited on 22-Jul-2022 15:07:05 by Dr Goldfire

SlR
Nov Member 2020

SlR

Posts: 4,378 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
No doubt there was price manipulation with rares, there still is! (it's just going in the other direction right now). But not all price rises were to do with manipulation. I'd argue a lot of items ended up costing more because there were fewer people gathering them. Take regular tree logs for example, over 1k gold each! how did that come about? (I actually don't know). Inflation creeped up over the years, and will continue to, as long as there are players bringing gold into the game. 1% won't do that much. It certainly wont change the amount of players not gathering certain items. It'll just reduce the rate inflation grows, I don't think we'll see negative inflation until they balance drops (reduce alchables).

There were rumours about JAGEX introducing 'seasons' to Runescape, that'd be a way to do it. Different drop table depending on the season, that'd help with item shortages too.

The obvious thing to say is: "over time there'll be less gold in game", whilst true, that would happen over a long period of time. Nothing ought to change as quickly as they have been with past few weeks, with rare panic selling. It just doesn't make sense. The only way it makes sense (to me) is if these players are planning to quit for a long time, in hope that when they return to the game in a few years they'll have more purchasing power.

1% G/E tax isn't going to do anything in the short-term, JAGEX wouldn't be implementing it if they thought it would. But players are acting as if it will. It's very odd. Bob says:
A bank PIN will keep your items secure.
Always check the second trade screen.
Never trade in the Wilderness!
Keep your computer keylogger-free and virus scanned.
Never give your password out to anyone.

22-Jul-2022 16:29:30 - Last edited on 22-Jul-2022 16:43:58 by SlR

King Wulfe
Nov Member 2019

King Wulfe

Posts: 144 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
We will probably see an initial crash as things tend to settle on the market instead of in the forums. Prices will be handled on the G.E obviously. This will be the wild west at the beginning wit panic selling, buying up in bulk and prices being set (My Guess!). Eventually it'll tone down but I have a feeling prices will continue upwards at a slow pace but faster than anticipated due to selling at a higher price to account for the 1% tax (Not much really but still there).

I'm interested to see how the rare market reacts and ultimately recovers!
Player Owned Guild Thread

Check it out!

24-Jul-2022 22:28:36

The Atlantis
Nov Member 2023

The Atlantis

Posts: 508 Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Dr Goldfire said :
King Wulfe said :
I do hope we see a balance, I know OSRS did something similar "GE tax" and it seemed to stabilize the market a bit but I don't know how the GE limit will work. I bet there will still be people trading rare items how they are currently doing it but new rare owners might stick to the GE to avoid any potential scams.
But will stock be bought up right away on GE if the prices are lower?
Will it just put items back in the hands of Hoarders or shady accounts? Not sure.
I do think that over all, long term the market will cool down and we will see steady numbers. Hopefully inflation can be curved soon as the prices from 2015 to 2022 blow my mind!
Nice to see that at least some of us do realize it - 2015 to 2022. If you draw this into the long-term chart you will see that the correction is unavoidable. Size of dynamics we witnessed upwards will also tell the future dynamics how to behave downwards.

Translated to common language: prices will go down as easy as they went up.

It's funny to see how you're ignoring the main issue here, which is inflation.

You can take a look at the inflation from 2015-2022, most PvM items have risen a lot since then, and in 2016 the bond price was 15-16m. It's almost 60m now - As long as this huge inflation exists, as long will PartyHats rise, it's that simple, and I hope your brain understands that, also, inflation doesn't get fixed overnight, nor is it 100% sure that it ever will get fixed

Jagex Tax is just too late to save the economy, and I don't think it even will do anything because so much more gold is entering the game. For the Tax to work, it would need to take out more gold than enters the game, which is pretty much impossible at the small rate

So as I see it -> More gold will still be entering the game -> Inflation will still be a thing -> Rares will still skyrocket

It's just the hard truth

25-Jul-2022 09:38:00 - Last edited on 25-Jul-2022 09:40:31 by The Atlantis

The Atlantis
Nov Member 2023

The Atlantis

Posts: 508 Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
And for Jagex to fix inflation, they would need to go into details and change A LOT of things, mainly drops from every monster. Which I don't see happening.

So, we just have to accept the fact that inflation will always be here, and with that, expensive partyhats

25-Jul-2022 09:39:45

SlR
Nov Member 2020

SlR

Posts: 4,378 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I'm of the same mindset, although I think these proposed changes will slow down the rate rares increase in price. And with all items potentially flowing through the G/E, people will get what their item is worth (more often than not) which will mean more gold to the average player. If they want to save up for a rare then it'll be easier, but they'll still have to play (and get lucky with drops) etc. Reduced death costs will help with that.

I just think people are assuming that these updates (which are not yet confirmed) will dunk prices by themselves, but I don't see how that'd happen, or evidence that it might happen. It's all self-inflicted, the way I see it. More hoarding and dumping to manipulate prices. Pyramid scheme merch clans have always been a thing on Runescape. Ever since the early days. Bob says:
A bank PIN will keep your items secure.
Always check the second trade screen.
Never trade in the Wilderness!
Keep your computer keylogger-free and virus scanned.
Never give your password out to anyone.

25-Jul-2022 10:15:32

Dr Goldfire
May Member 2012

Dr Goldfire

Posts: 2,553 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Of course there is an inflation and nobody said I ignore it. So there's no need to feel genially about it like it's felt from your posts.

Bonds inflation 2015 - 2022 is like 1:6

Partyhats 2015 - 2022 roughly 1:20 - 25 (current prices) and even 1:40 or more (towards april's ATH). General public usually calls this anomaly a "bubble" and bubbles do burst.

That's why I'm certain that the price correction is inbound (*edit actually already happening) and is unavoidable by any means. And by multiple methods I get that normal prices for (at least) lower partyhats will soon be between 10 - 15B.

If something grows too much, then the correction has to be comparably significant.

PS: if you want to predict markets don't ignore physics.
Everything, ranging from sub-atomic particles to galaxy clusters, has its dynamics predefined. And then there are people claiming that systems like economy, society or other human sub-systems are in our hands.

A girl without freckles is like a night without stars.

25-Jul-2022 10:52:36 - Last edited on 25-Jul-2022 11:03:13 by Dr Goldfire

The Atlantis
Nov Member 2023

The Atlantis

Posts: 508 Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I mean, they are removing death costs (or reducing them by a lot) this means the money sink which came from Death will now come from Tax, so in reality, nothing changes


I also think GE will make manipulation a lot easier just because rares are such low volume. If someone posts a 300b buy on blue partyhat from GE then players will instantly think its 300b because well, GE doesn't lie!

25-Jul-2022 10:52:42

The Atlantis
Nov Member 2023

The Atlantis

Posts: 508 Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Dr Goldfire said :
Of course there is an inflation and nobody said I ignore it. So there's no need to feel genially about it like it's felt from your posts.

Bonds inflation 2015 - 2022 is like 1:6

Partyhats 2015 - 2022 roughly 1:20 - 25 (current prices) and even 1:40 or more (towards april's ATH). General public usually calls this anomaly a "bubble" and bubbles do burst.

That's why I'm certain that the price correction is inbound and is unavoidable by any means. And by multiple methods I get that normal prices for (at least) lower partyhats will soon be between 10 - 15B.

If something grows too much, then the correction has to be comparably significant.

PS: if you want to predict markets don't ignore physics.

Bonds is just an example that inflation is heavy and exists, because bonds which are bought for real money, is good at reflecting that.

What you don't see is, a limited, low volume item can be priced at anything. Cracker is a good example, they can go for anything a player is willing to pay

Now, players can always make gold to purchase these items, but there will never enter more supply of this item into the game, actually, the supply will just get lower and lower overtime, as it has been for decades now, this is also another reason why the prices are so high

I'd say a lot of party hats were lost on staking accounts who RWT... The supply is just too low now and money too easy to make.

This is the reality you need to realise

25-Jul-2022 11:03:45

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