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How many rares are left?

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Desingerica

Desingerica

Posts: 356 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I want to make a thread where we approximately guess how many of each rare are left in game?

This isn't a price check thread, these are just guesses.

I wish someone could just tell us approximate amount of phats, masks, wines, disks, pumpkins, etc. We know so far there are 5k Christmas scythes and 1k wreaths but what about other rares?

This is what I know so far:

I heard rumors that there are around 2k black santas in game.

We know chessy had 1k santas at one point of time which I assume makes them much more common than some other rares? This means there are way over 1k red santas in game.

I'd assume rarity of red santa is similar to that of green and blue masks while red mask would be a bit rarer?

From rumors there aren't more than a couple hundred of each colored partyhat.

From some rumors and citi bank confirming there are approximately 150-200 half full wines in game.

From some other rumors there aren't more than 40-50 crackers left in game.

Are there any other sources where I can find out more about how many of each discontinued rare item are left in game?

22-Jun-2021 23:56:12 - Last edited on 22-Jun-2021 23:57:16 by Desingerica

F A Q
Dec Member 2023

F A Q

Posts: 104 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
In a tweet from Mod Pips in 2013 exactly two-thirds way though the Black Santa Hat (BSH) event, he claimed that the ratio of BSHs to Red Santa Hats (RSHs) was 1:9. Assuming BSHs were obtained at the same rate all the way to the end of the event, this tells us that the real BSH to RSH ratio would be approximately
1:6
.

I have heard numerous claims that there are
between 12,000 to 20,000 RSHs in the game
, which would put the
number of BSHs in the game between 2000 and 3333
.

Source: https://twitter.com/JagexPips/status/417707959138148352


Purely from speculation, these are my estimated guesses for the number of rares remaining within circulation:
Partyhats :~~~~~~~~700 of each
Holly Wreath :~~~~~700
BSH :~~~~~~~~~~~~1800
Xmas Scythe :~~~~~4000
H'ween Masks :~~~~5000 of each
RSH :~~~~~~~~~~~12,000

Not interested in edibles and incidental rares so those are not included.
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23-Jun-2021 03:32:24 - Last edited on 23-Jun-2021 04:15:25 by F A Q

RSGOTMEFATT

RSGOTMEFATT

Posts: 302 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
From what i have seen over the years, it's way more then anyone estimates most are just being kept out of circulation on purpose. santas is probably the most common one i had 60 at once, If jagex ever releases numbers it will likely crash rares.
Grand Exchange: Finished buying 1 x Christmas cracker

23-Jun-2021 09:25:57

Raphtalia6
Oct Member 2017

Raphtalia6

Posts: 1,134 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
there are way more masks and santa hats than ppl think there are. every active player should hold atleast 16 santas or 7-9 mask sets to clear the stacks. this is assuming there are more than 10k players active. everything under the 10k will make the amounts to hold more too ofcourse.

so if 1000 players are active its 160 santas and 70-90 sets a player.

This is just what i think based on the prices of the item and the demand ive seen. like alot of players have keepsaked a santa but santa is still hovering between 2.8 and 3.2 with a peak of like 3.6-3.7 (ive seen some 3.8 posts but ive my doubts about it.

and a mask set has been between 6.7 and 7.1 for a long time with no further peak. also a small notice 6.7 for a mask set and 3.1b for a santa makes 2 santa almost equal to 1 mask set so 2 to 3.

so based on price there are 3 masks for every 2 santas. but this is fully priced base so you can only assume what ppl prefer to hold/keepsake if we talk santa vs masks. dont use this to for amounts since prices dont always reflect quantity.

EDIT: ignore this completely idk what i was thinking. i think its 16k-18k max 19k. trusting certain pc lists or prices of items or websites that dont belong to jagex will get you into trouble notice: external websites and trades are your responsibility, dont get fooled!.

23-Jun-2021 14:31:23 - Last edited on 25-Jun-2021 00:01:19 by Raphtalia6

H Rassy
Sep Member 2023

H Rassy

Posts: 17,469 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
There is not 160k santas.

How you get to such a number it makes no sense at all.

~25k santas originally and now probably considerably less on active accounts.

23-Jun-2021 17:00:14 - Last edited on 23-Jun-2021 17:00:44 by H Rassy

I MERCH G-E

I MERCH G-E

Posts: 155 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
At one point of time I had 400 red masks and this was when they were 15m so we def know there are over 400

In my opinion there are way more red santas than masks in general and you could clearly see them being sold. Anyways masks and santas are quite common these days. I would also think that yellow, green, and purple phats are a bit more common than white, blue, and red.

We know how many scythes and blak santas there are.

For my guess on pumpkins and easter eggs I'd say up to 5k for pumpkin and 8k for eggs. That is my guess so don't take my word for it.

As for disk of returning, half full wine jug and cracker well when do you actually see them being traded? Almost never. When trying to buy or sell them it takes months that's why margins are like 10b apart. Only a handful of players work with these rares and I would assume they're the ones that own most of them. I myself was selling one wine around 2005 for 70m and I remember it took months to sell and recently I've been buying one for months too.

By the way I also sold 100 pumpkins recently so there are def more than 100 in game rofl.

23-Jun-2021 18:49:11

sugaraholic

sugaraholic

Posts: 1,234 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
F A Q said :
In a tweet from Mod Pips in 2013 exactly two-thirds way though the Black Santa Hat (BSH) event, he claimed that the ratio of BSHs to Red Santa Hats (RSHs) was 1:9. Assuming BSHs were obtained at the same rate all the way to the end of the event, this tells us that the real BSH to RSH ratio would be approximately
1:6
.

I have heard numerous claims that there are
between 12,000 to 20,000 RSHs in the game
, which would put the
number of BSHs in the game between 2000 and 3333
.

Source: https://twitter.com/JagexPips/status/417707959138148352


Purely from speculation, these are my estimated guesses for the number of rares remaining within circulation:
Partyhats :~~~~~~~~700 of each
Holly Wreath :~~~~~700
BSH :~~~~~~~~~~~~1800
Xmas Scythe :~~~~~4000
H'ween Masks :~~~~5000 of each
RSH :~~~~~~~~~~~12,000

Not interested in edibles and incidental rares so those are not included. Theres way more black santas and red santas

23-Jun-2021 22:14:49 - Last edited on 23-Jun-2021 22:15:12 by sugaraholic

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