I got interested in the price discussion on the prev. page but didnt have time to properly answer yet, but here is the data I analysed.
Bond prices increase approx. linearly over time, and thus does the lowest price of the year. I predicted in december a lowest bond price of 16m because the lowest price goes up by around 2m each year.
The lowest point was end of april and beginning of may in 2016, 2017. Last year was an anomaly due to the bond price increase on the 10th of april, causing an early trend upward.
This year is an exception too, due to a delayed drop in price after the sudden extension until february for the premium membership. We still haven't seen the full effect of the downward trend that takes an extra dive from January onwards.
I am carefully assuming bond prices will go down for a bit now, they might reach 17m before going up again, but I would be surprised if they go below that. But may is still quite a bit away, so who will say?
For transparency: I follow a sell at the shoulder, buy at the knee approach. I sold some bonds in december, just before they peaked and intend to buy them back at 18m-ish, before my predicted lowest price, because you can never be sure.
I would like if bonds drop below that to those speculated prices of 15m, but I am already intending to buy any and all at 17.5m, maybe a bit above to stay safe.
Kleiner Man1 said :
if there is not any update that would crash them for a real reason, and what would that ever be?
RS Mobile. Have you seen OSRS bond prices? A week after it was announced, in July, bond prices started dropping by 24%. Then they climbed again. The day after OSRS Mobile release, they nosedived again, dropping 33%. They are still 'recovering' from that, almost a year later. They are two quite different markets, but I think it's safe to say RS Mobile will drop Bond prices as well.
Bond prices increase approx. linearly over time, and thus does the lowest price of the year. I predicted in december a lowest bond price of 16m because the lowest price goes up by around 2m each year.
The lowest point was end of april and beginning of may in 2016, 2017. Last year was an anomaly due to the bond price increase on the 10th of april, causing an early trend upward.
This year is an exception too, due to a delayed drop in price after the sudden extension until february for the premium membership. We still haven't seen the full effect of the downward trend that takes an extra dive from January onwards.
I am carefully assuming bond prices will go down for a bit now, they might reach 17m before going up again, but I would be surprised if they go below that. But may is still quite a bit away, so who will say?
For transparency: I follow a sell at the shoulder, buy at the knee approach. I sold some bonds in december, just before they peaked and intend to buy them back at 18m-ish, before my predicted lowest price, because you can never be sure.
I would like if bonds drop below that to those speculated prices of 15m, but I am already intending to buy any and all at 17.5m, maybe a bit above to stay safe.
Kleiner Man1 said :
if there is not any update that would crash them for a real reason, and what would that ever be?
RS Mobile. Have you seen OSRS bond prices? A week after it was announced, in July, bond prices started dropping by 24%. Then they climbed again. The day after OSRS Mobile release, they nosedived again, dropping 33%. They are still 'recovering' from that, almost a year later. They are two quite different markets, but I think it's safe to say RS Mobile will drop Bond prices as well.
28-Mar-2019 17:21:52
