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Rares:Inflation & Manipulation

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DofIamingo
Nov Member 2023

DofIamingo

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Mr Gatsby said :
DofIamingo said :
People think phat will reach newer highes if plat tokens get brought in. In reality there will be hella phats entering the market, dumped from duel arena. Why would you want to stake items when you can get a monetary fixed value in the hundreds of bils.


Yeah, even if people don't stake hats that doesn't mean they won't reach new heights. All rares are rising not just phats, and I don't think eggs are at what they are because people wanted them to stake.



Lower rares just became the best thing to invest in once people noticed the inflation. IMO the average merchant prefers trades inside the GE, hence why all the GP flows into these once Partyhats and other notable rares have left the GE or are out of reach for the majority.

A similar thing is happening to SOF rares now that Lowers are exiting the GE.

The point is, the impact staking has on the rest of the rare market is extremely significant even if people don't use those rares to stake directly.

What do you stake once you exceed shards? Party Hats is the obvious Choice. But what do you use to make up the difference in price if you run out of hats, BSH and below.

Mr Gatsby said :
SoulSplits said :


1) Nothing is stopping a blue right now from going to 60b. It just means you would need other partyhats to trade for a blue, basically requiring you to upgrade another hat to blue



True, but if the limit is increased it's more likely to happen I think, might not be now but in the future.


Of course it could rise in the future, but the initial impact on the rare market will be extremely drastic should they bring in a new currency. Im not saying Phats will become affordable for everyone, but the Price drop is obvious in the immediate and near future.

Even mentioning it in the live stream seems to have had an effect on at least some of the rares.

27-Aug-2020 04:00:57 - Last edited on 27-Aug-2020 04:01:22 by DofIamingo

DofIamingo
Nov Member 2023

DofIamingo

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To Be Honest, i wouldn't even call the rise in the price of rares price manipulation. It's pretty natural for the market to move like this given what's been happening at duel arena, everything else is just a domino.

Admittedly, the obscurity of prices , does make the jumps more drastic than they should be, but without the new currency the only direction they can possibly go is up. Even then if you did put in the effort to research the prices instead of letting people tell you the prices, then it's really not so bad.

Although i understand why people can see it as manipulation when they have the majority of their bank roll in an item that they pray doesn't crash on them, which i imagine a lot of people are doing right now given the rare activity.

The idea of 'missing out' and seeing everyone else make money around you is a pretty big motivator for some, and greed has a big role to play also.

27-Aug-2020 04:07:03 - Last edited on 27-Aug-2020 04:11:14 by DofIamingo

Pkavidas

Pkavidas

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Things being too expensive for you to afford is not "price manipulation". The issue going on is people posting fake trades with themselves on the street in a way that is entirely unverifiable (unlike on the ge). Also street trades are spammy and rife with scams. Just today there were people "selling" items for much lower than what they sell for (while declining to all trades) while they stand with an alt buying up rares for slightly higher. People think that an item has crashed and are selling them far beneath what they are worth.

The solution is we need the GE to go above max cash. The solution is for items above max cash the GE automatically gives the millions in (platinum tokens) and the rest in gold coins. Honestly such a system could be programmed by a junior software dev (obviously testing and integration would take some time) but it is neither difficult nor impossible.

As far as the effect on party hats... They might go up, they might go down but they will surely better reflect the actual market value if they can be traded on the GE in a fair.

This will all but kill phat flipping (and the margins that go along with it) but that practice is pretty exploitative anyways so...

27-Aug-2020 04:50:12 - Last edited on 27-Aug-2020 04:54:17 by Pkavidas

DofIamingo
Nov Member 2023

DofIamingo

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Pkavidas said :


Honestly such a system could be programmed by a junior software dev (obviously testing and integration would take some time) but it is neither difficult nor impossible.


I actually talked to a friend about this. The company HQ is in cambs, They could literally walk to the UNI and offer the students in computer science to help do it. Considering the UNI is one of the best in the country in Cambridge, the students are probably more than capable. They would likely jump at the chance to improve their resume further.

Or if times are hard, that rando website you just pay people to do stuff

27-Aug-2020 04:59:00 - Last edited on 27-Aug-2020 05:00:53 by DofIamingo

0mniscient
Aug Member 2023

0mniscient

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Easy. Implement a tax on anyone storing more than 1 of each party hat. Allowed to have 1 set, but the second you get a duplicate of any phat, a 500m tax on each hat owned. If you don't have the funds to pay, you lose a phat in exchange.

Ban staking items. Reduces the chance of stakers hoarding them.

Or simply implement a rare item store. Blue phat 20b, White 15b, red 12b, etc.
This essentially ensures anyone can have one and allows phats to be used as a currency exchange for the rich without harming everyone else in the game.

If you are hoarding phats, spare me your tears about losing some gps. Don't play like trash and this wouldn't be an issue.

27-Aug-2020 05:22:45

Salve eel
May Member 2019

Salve eel

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DofIamingo said :
To Be Honest, i wouldn't even call the rise in the price of rares price manipulation. It's pretty natural for the market to move like this given what's been happening at duel arena, everything else is just a domino.

Admittedly, the obscurity of prices , does make the jumps more drastic than they should be, but without the new currency the only direction they can possibly go is up. Even then if you did put in the effort to research the prices instead of letting people tell you the prices, then it's really not so bad.

Although i understand why people can see it as manipulation when they have the majority of their bank roll in an item that they pray doesn't crash on them, which i imagine a lot of people are doing right now given the rare activity.

The idea of 'missing out' and seeing everyone else make money around you is a pretty big motivator for some, and greed has a big role to play also.


I am definitely one of those people who has been bank rolling in an item, the santa hat, which i purchased for less than half its current value. However, I have also been flipping Treasure Hunter rares on the side and making significant profits.

It seems what you see in the streets of W2 is wildly chaotic compared to what you see on the forums, and if you want to get a decent trade for your item you better be ready to hunker down and sit there for potentially hours as you wade through lowball trades and obvious trolls. So it can be quite inconvenient especially to those unfamiliar to it.

27-Aug-2020 05:37:39

DofIamingo
Nov Member 2023

DofIamingo

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Salve eel said :
DofIamingo said :
To Be Honest, i wouldn't even call the rise in the price of rares price manipulation. It's pretty natural for the market to move like this given what's been happening at duel arena, everything else is just a domino.

Admittedly, the obscurity of prices , does make the jumps more drastic than they should be, but without the new currency the only direction they can possibly go is up. Even then if you did put in the effort to research the prices instead of letting people tell you the prices, then it's really not so bad.

Although i understand why people can see it as manipulation when they have the majority of their bank roll in an item that they pray doesn't crash on them, which i imagine a lot of people are doing right now given the rare activity.

The idea of 'missing out' and seeing everyone else make money around you is a pretty big motivator for some, and greed has a big role to play also.


I am definitely one of those people who has been bank rolling in an item, the santa hat, which i purchased for less than half its current value. However, I have also been flipping Treasure Hunter rares on the side and making significant profits.

It seems what you see in the streets of W2 is wildly chaotic compared to what you see on the forums, and if you want to get a decent trade for your item you better be ready to hunker down and sit there for potentially hours as you wade through lowball trades and obvious trolls. So it can be quite inconvenient especially to those unfamiliar to it.


W2 won't ever change, but people can at least learn to have better judgement the longer they're there. Tbh there's potential like you said to get good deals, especially since stakers and people needing cash do go to world 2 to make a quick sale or buy if they don't use forums.

The high ball sellers and Low ball buyers get pretty annoying though. But i guess they have the same idea as us.

27-Aug-2020 05:50:24 - Last edited on 27-Aug-2020 05:50:54 by DofIamingo

Mr Gatsby

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Yeah, I don't think hoarding should be considered a bad type of price manipulation. Personally, I use price manpulation in the context of RS just to mean faking prices or other means of deceiving people.

I don't know why the naming and shaming rule applies to price checking threads if the person is trying to manipulate. Of course, people just call people they don't like "manips" but pointing out that a trade is likely fake or certainly fake (if it's known) shouldn't be against the rules.
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27-Aug-2020 06:34:44 - Last edited on 27-Aug-2020 06:39:12 by Mr Gatsby

Mr Gatsby

Mr Gatsby

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0mniscient said :


Or simply implement a rare item store. Blue phat 20b, White 15b, red 12b, etc.
This essentially ensures anyone can have one and allows phats to be used as a currency exchange for the rich without harming everyone else in the game.


Really would ruin the free trade aspect of the game.
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Gatsby#8485

27-Aug-2020 06:35:51

Promethuem
Aug Member 2008

Promethuem

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Imo there is clear maniping/panicing of all people/players.

The fact that a White Phat has gone up 12B in the last week clearly shows a single example of this. There should be in my opinion a statement from Jagex saying that they're releasing the numbers of these items (to show the population how rare these are) therefore making the price stay at some form of possible constant.

OR

And this will honestly never happen cause it will destroy the market (kinda the point if it does happen) there should be a re-release of rares like OSRS making anyone and everyone able to get whatever they want (yes a lot of people WILL have an issue with this statement).

Why would I propose something so drastic?

Simply cause in the near future (with how the manip/panic is going) some items will be OVER the max shard (53,687,091,175) trade value. Meaning that people will need to use other rares/items to buy others. People say to add another currency worth more then 25gp/ but then that'll mean that people are able to say I want a max stack of (example of 100gp item) which would be 214,748,364,700.

Also the only ways which allows people to barely keep up with the current inflation rate pvm wise is Telos - 2.5k% Claims, camping AoD or Duoing Vorago for Energies - the reason why I say these methods is because they consistently allow steady gp income which has been tested many times over. Otherwise all other money makers are almost pointless when going for such massive amounts of money that seems to be going up by 3-4B per day.

You could also argue the fact that Merching is a good way to make money (and it is I personally use it passively) but the main issue with merching as a money maker can be summed up in a single phrase 'Money makes more Money' if you say have 10b to work with (first off good job) and you get 3% ROi per month it's only 1.255b profit per year (yes this is a simple example I'm well aware 3% is a low bar to set).
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27-Aug-2020 09:00:23 - Last edited on 27-Aug-2020 09:06:40 by Promethuem

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