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Golden Partyhat Discussion

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Theos
Aug
fmod Member
2008

Theos

Forum Moderator Posts: 23,574 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
ELITE STACK said :
The reason its overpriced is because it has the name "partyhat" people see other phats cheapest 1 at 35-38b and want to hoard them. 1 yellow = about 90 golds. Whats concerning tho is that its still being mass alt farmed along with everyone hoarding them. Assuming 50k phats were made so far that would be a 20trill market cap after 1 month of release while xmas scythe 7 years in has a market cap of 12.5-14trill at a price of 2.3-2.8b. And with more gold sinks coming in 2022 I'm not sure if prices can sustain unless we get gp dupes.

The market cap may be too high, but I think it is a unique items since it is an affordable party hat and guaranteed to be discontinued. The item may take a long time before it reaches max GE price, for example, but it is still an easy entry into the rares market. It is a "pretty fish mask", likely to be very common but with a high price due to the cosmetic appeal and association with the original party hats.

In comparing the market caps, I think this is a unique item and the market cap can double or triple from here with ease due to the price point. Market caps don't necessarily have to be logical, as we've seen in the stock market on numerous occasions. There's a lot of optimism, and hope that these will someday become valuable. It may take over 10 years for these to break max cash, but the optimism that these will someday be incredibly valuable and the "FOMO" from folks who haven't been able to easily enter the rares market is enough to drive the prices of these up further. The major threat, in my opinion, is if Jagex continues to introduce new holiday items that compete with these (and other rares).
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22-Dec-2021 13:40:15

H Rassy
Sep Member 2023

H Rassy

Posts: 17,469 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Not to sure about that. Market cap was also what i was looking at to judge the price of this hat. There is no law that says all discontinued items must have the same market cap and it makes sense that some items (amongst with the golden partyhat) have a higher market cap then some other items. But its some indication still.

Personally i got to an even higher estimate then 20 trillion though i guess noone knows for sure besides jagex. I would not be surprised if this hat is below 500m one year from now and i still expect it to hit low 200 range in the upcoming 2-3 months. But maybe i am completely misjudging the situation. It is a very desireable and unique item that seems to be well suited for hoarding/investing. Which would justify a higher market cap then other discontinued items.

22-Dec-2021 13:47:29 - Last edited on 22-Dec-2021 13:50:09 by H Rassy

DofIamingo
Nov Member 2023

DofIamingo

Posts: 2,684 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Profz said :
my guy just did the wedge pattern on a rs item with 2 spikes O_o

looks professional L

Theos said :
ELITE STACK said :
The reason its overpriced is because it has the name "partyhat" people see other phats cheapest 1 at 35-38b and want to hoard them. 1 yellow = about 90 golds. Whats concerning tho is that its still being mass alt farmed along with everyone hoarding them. Assuming 50k phats were made so far that would be a 20trill market cap after 1 month of release while xmas scythe 7 years in has a market cap of 12.5-14trill at a price of 2.3-2.8b. And with more gold sinks coming in 2022 I'm not sure if prices can sustain unless we get gp dupes.


This is Facts though.

22-Dec-2021 18:44:24

Trip180

Trip180

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Dulcis Nex said :
There are gonna be more of these than playing members lol The gold phat is too high.

But maybe still more tree hats in game? Tree hats are up a bit. I cannot for the life of me manage to catch Covid. Perhaps it's because I didn't get vaxxed? The travails of those lacking immunity. :(

22-Dec-2021 23:34:07

Theos
Aug
fmod Member
2008

Theos

Forum Moderator Posts: 23,574 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Trip180 said :
Dulcis Nex said :
There are gonna be more of these than playing members lol The gold phat is too high.

But maybe still more tree hats in game? Tree hats are up a bit.

I think Christmas Tree Hat is far rarer than Golden Partyhat, no competition. I remember how rare the Dragonstone purple present was from that Treasure Hunter/SOF promo. I think people were getting about 1 every 450 spins. I see Golden Phat being higher due to cosmetic appeal even though it is likely going to end up vastly more common. It will be a "pretty fish mask". :P
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22-Dec-2021 23:39:09

Destruction

Destruction

Posts: 63,021 Emerald Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Trip180 said :
Dulcis Nex said :
There are gonna be more of these than playing members lol The gold phat is too high.

But maybe still more tree hats in game? Tree hats are up a bit.

I don't think so actually. They are not that rare in general but I believe there's way more GPH just by looking at numbers and the time.
The action or process of causing so much damage to something that it no longer exists or cannot be repaired.

23-Dec-2021 09:58:49

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