*100/1400 chance to hit the rare table. (With some modifiers for Lotd and HSR, and boosted chance to hit after failing.) HSR/Lotd is assumed in their calc. => 100/1386.
*You roll a number between 1 and 42 once you hit the rare table => 100/(1386*42) or 1/582 to hit a specific slot on the rare table.
*The super mega rare drop table is one slot on the rare table. 1/582 chance to hit it.
*On the super mega rare drop table there are 6 different second-age drop tables. One for 2a melee armour, one for 2a melee weapon, one for 2a range armour etc.
*1/300 chance of hitting a specific second-age table within the super mega rare drop table. 1/3 chance per piece on the 2a table (top, bottom & helm).
This yields an overall chance of 1/(582*300*3) = 1/523 800 chance to hit a specific 2a armour piece per roll. With 6 rolls per master clue => 6/523 800 or 1/87 300 chance to hit 2a armour piece per master clue. This is exactly 10 times rarer than Blood dye.
2a weapons are 3x more likly to be recieved than armour, due to them having their own drop table.
In a Rs3 data stream "Runescape Data in 2018 -Player achievements, boss kills and grand exchange stats" it was revieled that 1 034 641 master clues had been done post clue rework (approx 9 months after their release 2018-02).
The rate of completed master clues have likly decreased, but assuming its constant;
Now 17 months after release approx. 2 million master clues have been done.
Putting the two together:
2 000 000/87 300 = 23 second-age armour pieces of each on average.
The luck compensation effect from getting better chance after failed roll and rerolls account for maximum (1+1.25+1.5+1.75+1.75+1.75)/6 =1.5x increased chance =>
35 items.
Looting of 5k master clues by Mod Shauny on stream confirms the drop rates for dyes and hints at it being correct for 2a (0 items recieved for any of the 2a items). Rate < 1/(9*5000)= 1/45 000 to get 1, not contradicting the 1/87k stat.
26-Jul-2019 09:15:03
- Last edited on
26-Jul-2019 13:46:55
by
Krimandy1
