forums.rs

Forums

Hermod Plate -- really 1/10?

Quick find code: 14-15-780-66285599

Acari Efrope
Mar Member 2024

Acari Efrope

Posts: 364 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Hello!

I was conversing with my clan about the Hermod plate drop rates and it seemed to be a contentious debate. Me, being a programming nerd, am curious to see which side is right and I'm hoping all of you lovely people on these forums can help with that. I will happily share end results after 30-50 comments (which, if on rate should be 8.7k - 14.5k kills).

Any comments that are "the drop rate is 1/10 as an approximate.... blah blah blah" will be ignored. I simply am curious and am happy to do the statistics on it once I have enough data points.

For anyone curious, it took me 416 kills to get my 29 plates.

Thanks ahead of time for anyone chiming in. Zamorak gives strength, but Saradomin gives patience. Both are needed, but Guthix is dead.

21-Aug-2023 01:29:45

Spearmint30
Apr Member 2012

Spearmint30

Posts: 23,361 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
1/10 is a 10% likelihood of getting the drop, 90% likelihood that you don't.

Your RNG resulted in rolling the drop 6.97% of the time, and not rolling it 93.03% of the time. I suspect that after n kills, the results would draw closer and closer to the 10/90 numbers.
•
Spearmint30
•

¤
"I wish there was a way to know you were in the good old days before you actually left them."
¤

21-Aug-2023 07:40:40

Archaeox
Dec Member 2011

Archaeox

Posts: 53,469 Emerald Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
This is your regular reminder that chance has no memory.

You have a 1 in 10 chance of receiving the drop on each kill, irrespective of how many kills you have made in total .
~~~~ Just another victim of the ambient morality ~~~~

~~ Founder of the Caped Carousers quest cape clan ~~

!! Slava Ukraini - heroyam slava !!

21-Aug-2023 08:59:27

Dilbert2001
Jun Member 2006

Dilbert2001

Posts: 30,311 Sapphire Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Original message details are unavailable.

Any comments that are "the drop rate is 1/10 as an approximate.... blah blah blah" will be ignored. I simply am curious and am happy to do the statistics on it once I have enough data points.


The drop rate is confirmed to be 1/10 by Jagex officially. It is not an "approximate".

https://imgur.com/9e4dUgQ

21-Aug-2023 16:40:42

Quick find code: 14-15-780-66285599 Back to Top