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abandonment drop rate error in

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Willy SL
Jul Member 2023

Willy SL

Posts: 3 Bronze Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Some moderator can verify my account, which has an error in the dropout rate, therefore I have gone to many places and no objects fall, many deaths and 0 probability of objects, please help Some moderator can verify my account, which has an error in the dropout rate, therefore I have gone to many places and no objects fall, many deaths and 0 probability of objects, please help

15-Oct-2023 12:49:42

Tranq
Nov Member 2007

Tranq

Posts: 61,819 Emerald Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
How very odd. Only 1 post on the forums yet figured out how to create their signature as their single post. Seems truly odd.

Drops are indeed random. Your probability doesn't change unless Jagex added "bad luck mitigation" or threshold guarantees.

If an item has a 1/10 chance of dropping. This doesn't mean kill 10 you're guaranteed the drop it means that you have the same 10% chance you have on each and every kill. Now expand that out to the rarer chances like 1/2500, that doesn't guarantee you'll get the drop in 2500 kills.

Kill 1 is 1/2500
kill 2 is still 1/2500
kill 100 is still 1/2500
kill 2500 is still a 1/2500 chance
kill 4867 is still a 1/2500 chance

Now boss pets on the other hand have thresholds. Once the threshold number is met it increases the odds by 1.

So for example if a boss pet has a drop chance of 1/1000 with a threshold of 500. If you kill 501 of them your new percentile is 2/1000. Another 500 kills would move the counter to 3/1000.

With that being said if you had the worlds worst luck. Killing a boss with this boss threshold means you'd be guaranteed the pet on the 500,000 kill of that boss.
When the day becomes the night and the sky becomes the sea, when the clock strikes heavy and there’s no time for tea; and in our darkest hour, before my final rhyme, she will come back home to Wonderland and turn back the hands of time.

18-Oct-2023 15:19:01

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