RuneScape Forum Archive | OSRS FSW Prediction

Jun

2006

Dilbert2001

Posts: 30,201 Sapphire Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

OSRS FSW has started today. Noticeably OSRS Bond price has been surging from 5.3 mil around the time Mod Keeper first announced OSRS was going to launch today, to 6.4 mil now.

Do you think plenty of OSRS players are making alts and funding them with bonds?

Do you think OSRS Bond will make new high, eclipsing the 6.8 mil mark? Or do you think they won't continue to renew membership for their alts 2 weeks later?

Today there were like a little more than 2k concurrent FSW members at peak, that's noticeably far less than the 4k RS3 FSW members on its launch date. We can see RS3 Bond price actually dropped off shortly despite of the continuing surge in FSW members, do you think OSRS FSW will see the same pattern?

19-Oct-2022 22:47:46

Chrad3

Posts: 5 Bronze Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Dilbert2001 said :
OSRS FSW has started today. Noticeably OSRS Bond price has been surging from 5.3 mil around the time Mod Keeper first announced OSRS was going to launch today, to 6.4 mil now.

Do you think plenty of OSRS players are making alts and funding them with bonds?

Do you think OSRS Bond will make new high, eclipsing the 6.8 mil mark? Or do you think they won't continue to renew membership for their alts 2 weeks later?

Today there were like a little more than 2k concurrent FSW members at peak, that's noticeably far less than the 4k RS3 FSW members on its launch date. We can see RS3 Bond price actually dropped off shortly despite of the continuing surge in FSW members, do you think OSRS FSW will see the same pattern?

My honest opinion, I think the reason RS3 FSW had a higher peek player count is RS3 is adding xp boosts and different things to their FSW's where as OSRS is designed to be for the person who doesn't already play the game. The only people wanting to play FSW's are new players, those looking to impact the highscores or world firsts, and people like me who just want a change of pace.

I think the bond prices will do the same only because new players aren't going to have a main to be giving bonds from in the first place. I feel the spike is just for the release and it will even itself back out.

20-Oct-2022 00:13:23

Jun

2006

Dilbert2001

Posts: 30,201 Sapphire Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

We should get a clearer picture on the alts when bonds expire in 2 weeks.

Perhaps we can take a clue on the number of worlds and see OSRS's expectation now. OSRS FSW started today with 15 member worlds and 10 f2p worlds. RS3 FSW started out with 9 worlds all members. Perhaps seeing RS3 started out with 4k concurrent players, and up to 6.5k now after 3 weeks, we can expect OSRS's 15 member worlds to grow to 10-11k (15/9 x 6,500) peak concurrent members 3 weeks later?

Seeing OSRS member peaked at 2k today, it means they are expecting their concurrent members to become 4x or 5x as big after 3 weeks, right? What do you predict?

20-Oct-2022 01:52:16 - Last edited on 20-Oct-2022 01:53:27 by Dilbert2001

Jan

2012

Norne

Forum Moderator Posts: 76,250 Emerald Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Chrad3 said :
where as OSRS is designed to be for the person who doesn't already play the game.

Without any bonus EXP, I don't see how a person who hasn't played OSRS would want to do FSW over a normal server frankly. With RS3 the bonus EXP was the reason to start as an FSW, you had a huge advantage over regular servers for it. OSRS. That said RS3 definitely aimed for players who wanted to show off too. "When history witnesses a great change, Razgriz reveals itself... first, as a dark demon. As a demon, it uses its power to rain death upon the land, and then it dies. However, after a period of slumber, Razgriz returns, this time, as a great hero"

20-Oct-2022 04:23:38

Chrad3

Posts: 5 Bronze Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Norne said :
Chrad3 said :
where as OSRS is designed to be for the person who doesn't already play the game.

Without any bonus EXP, I don't see how a person who hasn't played OSRS would want to do FSW over a normal server frankly. With RS3 the bonus EXP was the reason to start as an FSW, you had a huge advantage over regular servers for it. OSRS. That said RS3 definitely aimed for players who wanted to show off too.

From what I have heard through the livestreams, the big thing for new players is they wouldn't feel like they are alone in the grind. It would put everyone on a level playing field at least in the beginning. The problem I see with that though is your experienced players in OSRS are going to be ahead within the first month or so compared to someone that hasn't played before.

As for any kind of peak in OSRS FSW's, I think the issue is going to be that players whom have never played RuneScape at all are going to be more drawn to RS3 then OSRS. OSRS was originally designed to bring back players who quit from EOC and just the direction of RS3 in general. I can't see many new people who have never played before being drawn to the 'nostalgic' game over the newer one tbh.

20-Oct-2022 12:53:04

Aug

2008

Theos

Forum Moderator Posts: 23,574 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Norne said :
Chrad3 said :
where as OSRS is designed to be for the person who doesn't already play the game.

Without any bonus EXP, I don't see how a person who hasn't played OSRS would want to do FSW over a normal server frankly. With RS3 the bonus EXP was the reason to start as an FSW, you had a huge advantage over regular servers for it. OSRS. That said RS3 definitely aimed for players who wanted to show off too.

Agreed.

RS3 FSW has unique cosmetics, xp boost, and other items. Although it is only P2P, it definitely attracted a unique audience.

OSRS FSW might attract returning players, and perhaps a group that desire to compete for the top high scores page. From what I'm observing, the player count isn't too significant so far.

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20-Oct-2022 13:47:25

Jun

2006

Dilbert2001

Posts: 30,201 Sapphire Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Any number of paying customer is a plus to Jagex's balance sheet. So even many of them don't continue to renew their FSW membership, it is still positive business to Jagex.

I do have the impression the headcount is low though, because there are way too many worlds almost all of them have 100 or less players there, although they are still more than we have on the Quest Speedrunning worlds. It is just not MMO-ish, and I predict MMO players won't be impressed.

Actually we can see Mods Mack and Kirby livestreaming FSW right now. All we can see is they are walking slowly (agility and run energy really suck in OSRS) alone for hours and we hardly see other players.

20-Oct-2022 15:37:20 - Last edited on 20-Oct-2022 16:16:14 by Dilbert2001

Angel2D4

Posts: 15,772 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

Theos said :
Norne said :
Chrad3 said :
where as OSRS is designed to be for the person who doesn't already play the game.

Without any bonus EXP, I don't see how a person who hasn't played OSRS would want to do FSW over a normal server frankly. With RS3 the bonus EXP was the reason to start as an FSW, you had a huge advantage over regular servers for it. OSRS. That said RS3 definitely aimed for players who wanted to show off too.

Agreed.

RS3 FSW has unique cosmetics, xp boost, and other items. Although it is only P2P, it definitely attracted a unique audience.

OSRS FSW might attract returning players, and perhaps a group that desire to compete for the top high scores page. From what I'm observing, the player count isn't too significant so far.

I don't see how osrs fsw would attract returning players.. if osrs doesn't.. I mean, it's not like those who played long ago would be afraid of high lvls or something.

Anybody wanting to "compete" for hi scores? For 6 months and then disappear into the maxed players on old school? Yeah, no, I don't see that happening either.

They haven't got it figured out, yet, but with that newest survey.. and questions pertaining to "official" private servers.. player hosted even.. they might be headed in a direction nobody expected.. and it might be something that shows a significant increase in revenue where fsw for old school failed.

Time will tell. "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity" -Martin Luther King Jr.

22-Oct-2022 19:48:37

Jun

2006

Dilbert2001

Posts: 30,201 Sapphire Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

OSRS FSW is not likely to bring Jagex a lot of revenue, but it is not going to "fail" because cost is low there. New and returning players likely aren't interested in OSRS FSW as there are RS3 FSW they can get a lot more bang for the buck, and the current OSRS where they can get more (not a whole lot more but still more) content like Quest Speedrunning and whatever game modes yet to be announced.

However, official private servers won't be an overwhelming success either. They also aren't unexpected as Mod MMG has proposed such an idea before OSRS openly allowed 3PC. They didn't materialize because no private server owners came to term with Jagex.

Actually it is not hard to see why official private servers won't fare much better than OSRS FSW. They only offer a snapshot of the old copy of OSRS and they compete directly with OSRS and perhaps lots of other official private servers Jagex allow. Real world examples also don't show games allowing official private servers (e.g. Ragnorak Online) really make a lot of money. We may still see Jagex allowing official private servers, but then the current version of OSRS will probably be on its last leg.

23-Oct-2022 04:06:51

Jun

2006

Dilbert2001

Posts: 30,201 Sapphire Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile

One week into OSRS FSW, Jagex did the right thing by reducing the total number of worlds by 56%. This should make OSRS FSW look less empty.

They also reduced total OSRS Quest Speedrunning worlds by 50%.

Perhaps their expectations were just way way too high than the reality shows them.

The good thing is perhaps OSRS finally realized educated consumers will only pay for games that give them actual in game good feeling instead of a "HUGE" game with bunch of empty worlds and very few actual players and social interactions.

28-Oct-2022 04:44:15 - Last edited on 28-Oct-2022 04:45:55 by Dilbert2001

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OSRS FSW Prediction