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Tombs of Amascut purple rate?

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Equitas
Aug Member 2023

Equitas

Posts: 86 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Hi,

Just wanted to ask if this is normal.

So I've done 61 TOA raids 400 invo Soolo now and guess what.. I have not received one purple during this whole time. That is me spending 24 days dry now with a 9.5% unique chance each time. It's almost statiscly impossible?

You killed 61 monsters for an item with a 0.095 (9.500000%) drop chance. You had a:

0.22675837% chance of getting 0 drops or fewer
99.77324163% chance of getting more than 0 drops. The vacuum of space has more activity than your drop log.

I should have to 99.77% have received 1 purple drop during this whole time. What sort of scam is this?

Feeling really weird about this.

24-Nov-2023 11:03:22

Archaeox
Dec Member 2011

Archaeox

Posts: 53,399 Emerald Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Chance has no memory, therefore on EVERY attempt, IRRESPECTIVE of how many times you've tried before, you have a 9.5% chance each time.

Just like you can roll a dice forever and never roll a six.
~~~~ Just another victim of the ambient morality ~~~~

~~ Founder of the Caped Carousers quest cape clan ~~

!! Slava Ukraini - heroyam slava !!

24-Nov-2023 12:10:55

Equitas
Aug Member 2023

Equitas

Posts: 86 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
That is such a whataboutism statement and a stupid comparison. No one is that unlucky that they can't roll a 6 on 60 tries it's mathematicly and statisticly impossible.
It should not be this insanely unlucky to not receive any loot as you can see from the calculation it is saying that I should with a 99.77% certainty have received a purple in this time.
It can't be that I am in that 00.23% that's even rarer then receiving the pet?!?

This has so be malicious intent by the game. Or the unique % is a lie. Or you actually have to play 10-16 hours each day to actually receive anything and 1-4 hours grinding a raid does not count for anything.

There has to be a better explanation than "It's like rolling a dice" wtf...

24-Nov-2023 12:20:25

Archaeox
Dec Member 2011

Archaeox

Posts: 53,399 Emerald Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Equitas said :
That is such a whataboutism statement and a stupid comparison. No one is that unlucky that they can't roll a 6 on 60 tries it's mathematicly and statisticly impossible.
You are mistaken. It is merely extremely unlikely.

Equitas said :
It should not be this insanely unlucky to not receive any loot as you can see from the calculation it is saying that I should with a 99.77% certainty have received a purple in this time.
So you are part of the 0.23% - congratulations! The point being, of course, that 99.77 =/= 100, so the chance, while vanishingly small, is still there.

Equitas said :
It can't be that I am in that 00.23% that's even rarer then receiving the pet?!?
If you truly believe in statistics, then you must admit that this is, in fact, a possibility. See above.


What you are actually asking for is the thresholds that have been added in certain other parts of the RS3 game - where after a certain point, the drop is actually guaranteed (like some of the shards in the current RS3 event).
~~~~ Just another victim of the ambient morality ~~~~

~~ Founder of the Caped Carousers quest cape clan ~~

!! Slava Ukraini - heroyam slava !!

24-Nov-2023 14:41:02 - Last edited on 24-Nov-2023 16:23:23 by Archaeox

Equitas
Aug Member 2023

Equitas

Posts: 86 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
What you are actually asking for is the thresholds that have been added in certain other parts of the RS3 game - where after a certain point, the drop is actually guaranteed (like some of the shards in the current RS3 event).

- That would be the correct solution. Just adding a little bit of code.

25-Nov-2023 21:47:07 - Last edited on 25-Nov-2023 21:54:54 by Equitas

Tranq
Nov Member 2007

Tranq

Posts: 61,815 Emerald Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
However that isn't always the case. Which is the reason that some of us are certain the RNG Gods have it out for us. I honestly don't go to thinks expecting I'll get the unique drops. The only time I did was getting the subjugation pieces for my mecromancy robes. Even that took well over 2000 kills to acquire enough pieces even with the 500% multiplier in play. Still didn't get that pet.

The thresholds aren't all they're cracked up to be either. Like the Kril pet i didn't get yet...

Has a 1:5000 chance of dropping with a threshold of 1000 kills. At each threshhold the number increases by 1.
So at 1000 kills the odds are now 2:5000
at 2000 kills the odds are now 3:5000
and so on.

This means that if the RNG gods truly hated me I'd get the pet as a guaranteed drop on the 5,000,000th kill.
When the day becomes the night and the sky becomes the sea, when the clock strikes heavy and there’s no time for tea; and in our darkest hour, before my final rhyme, she will come back home to Wonderland and turn back the hands of time.

27-Nov-2023 18:18:38

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