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900 keys no orange hween mask

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Jeremy Cheng
Aug Member 2013

Jeremy Cheng

Posts: 25,639 Sapphire Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Did the 450 key promo on two accounts for 900 keys total, 0 orange halloween masks on either account. All we got were 50m prizes times 3. Anyone else experience this bad luck with the current halloween th promo? Wiki says it's 1/1250 chance so we should have received at least 1 orange ween. I feel sad.

30-Oct-2023 07:35:39

Archaeox
Dec Member 2011

Archaeox

Posts: 53,399 Emerald Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Jeremy Cheng said :
Wiki says it's 1/1250 chance so we should have received at least 1 orange ween. I feel sad.

First: Chance has no memory, so the number of keys you buy or have used makes no difference to your likelihood of getting a particular prize from the next key.

Second: Even if your understanding of mathematics was correct (and it definitely isn't), 900 is less than 1250, so there's no reason you should have received one.
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30-Oct-2023 08:10:42

Tenebri
Jan Member 2015

Tenebri

Posts: 39,133 Sapphire Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Jeremy Cheng said :
Wiki says it's 1/1250 chance so we should have received at least 1 orange ween..
thats not how rng works. you arent owed anything



you can roll a dice 20 times and never get a 1. someone else can roll it 20 times and get 1, 3 times.

its how rng works.
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30-Oct-2023 09:35:00 - Last edited on 30-Oct-2023 11:28:53 by Tenebri

Kivinoid
Oct Member 2010

Kivinoid

Posts: 2,902 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
There is not much fun in such luck based "holiday events". I miss the times when holiday in RS meant some interesting fun short quest and everyone who did that could get some costumes, pets or stuff. I still remember the Black Zabeth concert many years ago, this was fun.

Holiday events should make players happy. Current MTX and luck based events leave many players sad and bitter. Just like OP said he feels. And me too.

Holiday event rewards should be something that everyone can get with little effort. Not like now where some players get handed hundreds of millions or even billions worth of items based on pure luck, when other players get absolutely nothing regardless of effort and time they spend participating in event.

My friend got 5 halloween masks from the event without putting much effort into it, mostly from just smashing the pumpkins that randomly appeared. I still have none, after smashing thousands of pumpkins and spending hundreds of keys. Should I feel happy about the event?

Yes, sure, I could buy the mask, but that is not the point. I do not want to buy it. I wanted the mask as trophy, something I could look in the future and remember that I was there on October 2023, and I participated in Halloween event. Just like the items I have from earlier events.

01-Nov-2023 03:15:22

Ladyolake
Jan Member 2008

Ladyolake

Posts: 7,094 Rune Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I understand about the event seeming to be mostly mtx related.

But everyone i know in game that i play with has gotten their items with the normal 2 or 3 keys that they normally get and/or plus the challenge keys.

I wish there were an event for an item and if jagex wanted a 2nd item for mtx fine. But I do believe in game miniquests etc are the most fun. The richest person is not who has the most. It is who Needs the least.

01-Nov-2023 05:47:18

Bertel62
Aug Member 2023

Bertel62

Posts: 1,009 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Jeremy Cheng said :
Wiki says it's 1/1250 chance so we should have received at least 1 orange ween.
No you should not. Having a chance of something doesn't mean it is guaranteed.

On a coin flip you have 1/2 chance to get heads, so if you flip a coin two times, do you then believe that you have to get heads at least one time? I hope you don't. You can flip a coin 10 times without getting heads. Similarly you can use 12500 keys without getting a mask.

08-Nov-2023 10:57:22

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