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Rare Market: Honest Analysis

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Mortality
May Member 2023

Mortality

Posts: 2,854 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I'd like to give my view on claims that are consistently discussed on RS forums.

Claim 1: The current cost of rares is due to organized manipulation


My observation: I've personally witnessed fake trades to test feasibility. Most were removed in 24 hours. It's not as easy as it appears. The charts don't indicate mass manip. Not enough peaks/valley's.

Regarding whale rare holders: They are collectors and are still just a microcosm of the total demand schedule.


The cost of rares seems more closely related to the inflation rate of gold. A good indicator of RS inflation is the cost of gold on RS black markets. DON'T BREAK RS RULES. With that, check out this info:

Example:
March 2020: Cost per mill was ~.14
Yellow Phats were trading ~11B.

Dec 2020:
Cost per mill is around .06
Yellow Phats are trading ~28B.

I attribute the variation from direct correlation to a decrease in market supply via keepsakes, bans etc. If you go way back, this correlation is consistent. IF gp goes back to .14 per mill, rare costs will decrease but adjusted for decrease in supply.

Claim 2: RWT Stakers are the reason for the surge in Phat costs.


High roller stakers are a super minority in RS3. These players are also not really gambling. They opt for a significant statistical advantage by only offering ~70% of your stake offer. The idea is to take advantage of desperate stakers who recently lost big.

If they are RWTs, the majority of their rares reenter the market which would not drive up rare cost. Other stakers who do 50-50 stakes ALL eventually get cleaned and these rares then also reenter the market which wouldn't increase cost.


So, what drives up rare cost?

Definitely inflation, likely heavy RWT. But ultimately, demand.

08-Dec-2020 11:21:58 - Last edited on 11-Dec-2020 07:36:16 by Mortality

Raphtalia6
Oct Member 2017

Raphtalia6

Posts: 1,134 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
so the solution would be to ban all rwt players which wont happen because that has a really high chance of destroying the game and its economy. so the better idea would be to freeze all the money those rwters hold. but jatex cant do that because they cant dig deep enough like that because that would break the players info safety. rules to rule the rules to abuse a rule. simply put a fly gets caught in a web cant get out and dies because it cant fly away. to keep going on this subject. i would say burn the web and the spider and the fly in order to save the fly his/her family. simply put. track all the people down who rule break and perm all the accounts equally for rwting. its harsh but for the long term quality its better than letting the game get taken by players instead of jatex right? because right now jatex seems to lose grip on their end while on the other side they get more grip(and money). im just really surprised jatex is letting this go on for this long now without sending out like a message or something(yes they banned the bot websites but this might have awakened rwting even more) trusting certain pc lists or prices of items or websites that dont belong to jagex will get you into trouble notice: external websites and trades are your responsibility, dont get fooled!.

08-Dec-2020 14:14:25

S 1 M O N
Sep Member 2016

S 1 M O N

Posts: 1,491 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Raphtalia6 said :
so the solution would be to ban all rwt players which wont happen because that has a really high chance of destroying the game and its economy. so the better idea would be to freeze all the money those rwters hold. but jatex cant do that because they cant dig deep enough like that because that would break the players info safety. rules to rule the rules to abuse a rule. simply put a fly gets caught in a web cant get out and dies because it cant fly away. to keep going on this subject. i would say burn the web and the spider and the fly in order to save the fly his/her family. simply put. track all the people down who rule break and perm all the accounts equally for rwting. its harsh but for the long term quality its better than letting the game get taken by players instead of jatex right? because right now jatex seems to lose grip on their end while on the other side they get more grip(and money). im just really surprised jatex is letting this go on for this long now without sending out like a message or something(yes they banned the bot websites but this might have awakened rwting even more)

When you posit it could destroy the economy, are you talking in terms of banning RWT'ers that operate within the discontinued items sphere? Because if so, I find it highly unlikely it would have any impact at all on 99.9% of the player base and economies they operate within. The rares community have effectively created a bubble outside mainstream markets, and they play ZERO role in any of the 'mainstreams' game items. Personally, i find the entire market distasteful, manipulative and a cancer on the game. But, having said that, it's become such a way it really does only impact the same 20-30 people, as in all honestly, its just the same 20-30 people trading amongst themselves.

08-Dec-2020 17:02:44

DofIamingo
Nov Member 2023

DofIamingo

Posts: 2,684 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
S 1 M O N said :
Raphtalia6 said :
so the solution would be to ban all rwt players which wont happen because that has a really high chance of destroying the game and its economy. so the better idea would be to freeze all the money those rwters hold. but jatex cant do that because they cant dig deep enough like that because that would break the players info safety. rules to rule the rules to abuse a rule. simply put a fly gets caught in a web cant get out and dies because it cant fly away. to keep going on this subject. i would say burn the web and the spider and the fly in order to save the fly his/her family. simply put. track all the people down who rule break and perm all the accounts equally for rwting. its harsh but for the long term quality its better than letting the game get taken by players instead of jatex right? because right now jatex seems to lose grip on their end while on the other side they get more grip(and money). im just really surprised jatex is letting this go on for this long now without sending out like a message or something(yes they banned the bot websites but this might have awakened rwting even more)

When you posit it could destroy the economy, are you talking in terms of banning RWT'ers that operate within the discontinued items sphere? Because if so, I find it highly unlikely it would have any impact at all on 99.9% of the player base and economies they operate within. The rares community have effectively created a bubble outside mainstream markets, and they play ZERO role in any of the 'mainstreams' game items. Personally, i find the entire market distasteful, manipulative and a cancer on the game. But, having said that, it's become such a way it really does only impact the same 20-30 people, as in all honestly, its just the same 20-30 people trading amongst themselves.

You'll be surprised to know that a lot more than 20-30 people have more than enough to still buy phats.

08-Dec-2020 17:14:08

H Rassy
Sep Member 2023

H Rassy

Posts: 17,469 Opal Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Interesting analyzis,i do agree there is a correlation between gold DONT BREAK RS RULES prices and rare prices. It is a somewhat deceiving correlation because there is also some correlation between gold DONT BREAK RS RULES prices and the amount of gold in circulation and off course some correlation between rare prices and the amount of gold in circulation (inflation). What comes first and is the root cause is hard to say but i am inclined to believe that it all starts with the amount of gold in circulation (inflation).

If you do 50/50 bets then you will eventually lose all your money,its a mathematical certainty that is unavoidable in the long run. I still think staking has an impact on rare prices though,if only because it also seems to be connected to rwit DONT BREAK RS RULES.

Amount of people who has enough to buy a hat i guess is really high. 1k people easily and maybe even 5k people. And then there is also all the people who still have a hat,thats probably well over 1k people.

The biggest drop ever in rare prices was a result of making both duelling and rwit impossible with the balanced trade update,after which there was a 70% drop from the peak.

08-Dec-2020 17:16:08 - Last edited on 08-Dec-2020 17:18:35 by H Rassy

DofIamingo
Nov Member 2023

DofIamingo

Posts: 2,684 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
And tbh although the rares don't directly affect other markets, they can indirectly. Also a lot of lesser wealthier players also started entering the market when they managed to buy at the time, under valued lower rares in ge.

And most of these rares will probably stay inactive on their accounts for a long ass time cause there are a lot of players that will not sell their rares outside of ge. I personally think a lot of lowers are becoming more in active too now because of this.

Personally I cannot be bothered to sell my lowers anymore. I spend like 5mins in w2, get like 5 attempts at scam trades and just log. So I can see why low wealth players would prefer not to trade outside ge.

These players would most likely flock to SOF/3a/2a now that rares are basically all out of the ge.

08-Dec-2020 17:20:37

DofIamingo
Nov Member 2023

DofIamingo

Posts: 2,684 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
H Rassy said :
Interesting analyzis,i do agree there is a correlation between gold DONT BREAK RS RULES prices and rare prices. It is a somewhat deceiving correlation because there is also some correlation between gold DONT BREAK RS RULES prices and the amount of gold in circulation and off course some correlation between rare prices and the amount of gold in circulation (inflation). What comes first and is the root cause is hard to say but i am inclined to believe that it all starts with the amount of gold in circulation (inflation).

If you do 50/50 bets then you will eventually lose all your money,its a mathematical certainty that is unavoidable in the long run. I still think staking has an impact on rare prices though,if only because it also seems to be connected to rwit DONT BREAK RS RULES.

Amount of people who has enough to buy a hat i guess is really high. 1k people easily and maybe even 5k people. And then there is also all the people who still have a hat,thats probably well over 1k people.

The biggest drop ever in rare prices was a result of making both duelling and rwit impossible with the balanced trade update,after which there was a 70% drop from the peak.


I think personally it's hard to argue that the price of rares are influenced by many factors out side of duel arena.

I'm sure there is manipulation etc however, without the demand there, the prices wouldn't rise as fast. Recent events at DA are a pretty reliable explanation for the surges in prices.

I don't see how people can just be ignorant to this and blame manipulation

As far as RWT goes, there are definitely players who's income relies on RWT DA wins. For them, buying and selling maybe 10k a month for an example isn't out of the ordinary. So both are pretty heavily linked IMO.

08-Dec-2020 17:24:25 - Last edited on 08-Dec-2020 17:27:30 by DofIamingo

Orestis

Orestis

Posts: 740 Steel Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Over the course of the past 5 months I started with 0 gp, did telos (sub 1k streaking) for 3hrs/day max, bought 3 santas for 2-2.3b ea, sold them during the rise a couple of months ago for 3.2b, bought a bsh for 12b, sold it during the current rise for 16b, bought a yellow for 25b and upgraded it to a green (my goal) a week later. It's still entirely possible to make enough money via pvming without being super good at telos. (2.5k claims)

08-Dec-2020 20:31:21

DofIamingo
Nov Member 2023

DofIamingo

Posts: 2,684 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Orestis said :
Over the course of the past 5 months I started with 0 gp, did telos (sub 1k streaking) for 3hrs/day max, bought 3 santas for 2-2.3b ea, sold them during the rise a couple of months ago for 3.2b, bought a bsh for 12b, sold it during the current rise for 16b, bought a yellow for 25b and upgraded it to a green (my goal) a week later. It's still entirely possible to make enough money via pvming without being super good at telos. (2.5k claims)

Yeah pvm is actually very rewarding if you have average rng at higher tiers.

I restarted RS in march around when arch was released with about 10m and made max cash x2 in about 2 weeks flipping the mats.

Currently at about 40b since then, taking advantage of the volatility in the market since it's presenting a lot of opportunity for investors.

It's more than reasonable to make huge amounts of GP via pvming assuming you have the dedication to stick with it. But alternative methods are just as lucrative, which is just another reason for the huge inflation.

Honestly I log into the game like twice a week now just to put new buys/sells in.

I don't own any party hats anymore, but invested in some lowers. and just have GE buys for the most part cause I really cba to log in anymore and w2 trading is aids these days.

09-Dec-2020 16:05:17

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