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26-Jun-2020 06:40:35

Dr Goldfire
May Member 2012

Dr Goldfire

Posts: 2,553 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Let's look at few number facts:

Christmas tree hats were obtainable during approximately 2 weeks of Christmas period in 2012. (RS Wiki says 19th through 31st December. After that, people could have only claimed rewards from already released dragonstone purple presents for another following 3 weeks in January 2013). So in fact 13 days to get, compared with 15 days during which you could have got Black Santa hats during Christmas 2013.

Of course, some players tend to note the fact that the above stated Dragonstone purple presents were also (along with skilling way) obtainable from Squeel of fortune, while Festive crackers were obtainable the same way, yet with exception of not being available on SoF. Instead of weighing the second case above the first one I personally perceive that obtaining a tree hat was also just a part of regular seasonal holiday event, no matter the methods used.

It is well known (confirmed by a mod), that there is approximately 10 times less BSHs than red Santa hats (from Christmas 2002).

Instead of trying to calculate and comparing chances of getting a BSH from Festive cracker (1 in 2000 to more than 1 in 1000 chance with Blessing of winter bonus) or a Dragonstone purple present from SoF (Very rare tier reward) I tend to take market self-regulation ability into strong consideration and that BSHs were roughly 3 - 5 times more expensive during the days of their releasing, when comparing it with CTHs, it is evident that the rarity of BSH is superior to a CTH.

Yet as long as I combine the above facts, my personal guess is that current rarity of Christmas tree hats could be somewhere within a range between RSH and BSH.
Everything, ranging from sub-atomic particles to galaxy clusters, has its dynamics predefined. And then there are people claiming that systems like economy, society or other human sub-systems are in our hands.

A girl without freckles is like a night without stars.

26-Jun-2020 10:57:40 - Last edited on 26-Jun-2020 11:19:26 by Dr Goldfire

I Lack Heart
May Member 2016

I Lack Heart

Posts: 947 Gold Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
God owns all said :
will they rise?
they have very niche market and look terrible, so you have to wait long time to have much financial benefit unless someone with too much cash starts to collect them. thats pretty much their only value, as collection pieces.

26-Jun-2020 10:59:06

Dr Goldfire
May Member 2012

Dr Goldfire

Posts: 2,553 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I Lack Heart said :
God owns all said :
will they rise?
they have very niche market and look terrible, so you have to wait long time to have much financial benefit unless someone with too much cash starts to collect them. thats pretty much their only value, as collection pieces.
Look is very subjective feature and hardly considered at pricing. For me, third-age melee looks much better than second age. Which one is more expensive?
Everything, ranging from sub-atomic particles to galaxy clusters, has its dynamics predefined. And then there are people claiming that systems like economy, society or other human sub-systems are in our hands.

A girl without freckles is like a night without stars.

26-Jun-2020 11:17:13

Destruction

Destruction

Posts: 63,021 Emerald Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Dr Goldfire said :
Let's look at few number facts:

Christmas tree hats were obtainable during approximately 2 weeks of Christmas period in 2012. (RS Wiki says 19th through 31st December. After that, people could have only claimed rewards from already released dragonstone purple presents for another following 3 weeks in January 2013). So in fact 13 days to get, compared with 15 days during which you could have got Black Santa hats during Christmas 2013.

Of course, some players tend to note the fact that the above stated Dragonstone purple presents were also (along with skilling way) obtainable from Squeel of fortune, while Festive crackers were obtainable the same way, yet with exception of not being available on SoF. Instead of weighing the second case above the first one I personally perceive that obtaining a tree hat was also just a part of regular seasonal holiday event, no matter the methods used.

It is well known (confirmed by a mod), that there is approximately 10 times less BSHs than red Santa hats (from Christmas 2002).

Instead of trying to calculate and comparing chances of getting a BSH from Festive cracker (1 in 2000 to more than 1 in 1000 chance with Blessing of winter bonus) or a Dragonstone purple present from SoF (Very rare tier reward) I tend to take market self-regulation ability into strong consideration and that BSHs were roughly 3 - 5 times more expensive during the days of their releasing, when comparing it with CTHs, it is evident that the rarity of BSH is superior to a CTH.

Yet as long as I combine the above facts, my personal guess is that current rarity of Christmas tree hats could be somewhere within a range between RSH and BSH.

Just let me correct your ''fact'', there is around 6 times less BSH than RSH. 1/10 was number given like 7 days before event ended.
There is way more CTH than RSH, not even comparable.
The action or process of causing so much damage to something that it no longer exists or cannot be repaired.

26-Jun-2020 11:54:25

Dr Goldfire
May Member 2012

Dr Goldfire

Posts: 2,553 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Destruction said :

Just let me correct your ''fact'', there is around 6 times less BSH than RSH. 1/10 was number given like 7 days before event ended.
There is way more CTH than RSH, not even comparable.
Where did you get the 6 times number as for Santa hats ratio?

I wouldn't be that sure about rarity comparison of CTH and RSH. My above analysis is just fundamental by its nature. Not to mention yet, that in April 2013 = ~4 months after the release of CTH, they peaked around 80M. Engaging technical analysis for future price prediction suggests, that we may soon learn which one is rarer or more scarce.
Everything, ranging from sub-atomic particles to galaxy clusters, has its dynamics predefined. And then there are people claiming that systems like economy, society or other human sub-systems are in our hands.

A girl without freckles is like a night without stars.

26-Jun-2020 13:13:28 - Last edited on 26-Jun-2020 13:13:48 by Dr Goldfire

I Lack Heart
May Member 2016

I Lack Heart

Posts: 947 Gold Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Dr Goldfire said :
I Lack Heart said :
God owns all said :
will they rise?
they have very niche market and look terrible, so you have to wait long time to have much financial benefit unless someone with too much cash starts to collect them. thats pretty much their only value, as collection pieces.
Look is very subjective feature and hardly considered at pricing. For me, third-age melee looks much better than second age. Which one is more expensive?
looks matter in terms of how fast the price will go up, if there were same amount of second age armor as there is third age in game, im sure third age would cost more. while the talk might be rarity, i would say rarity + looks is the most important combo. bsh would be on the level of phats now if you 'wore' it same way as regular santa.

26-Jun-2020 14:42:55

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