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Weapons and Armor Prices

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Mortality
May Member 2023

Mortality

Posts: 2,854 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Ok guys, my analysis on the rare market received some positive feedback in the past so I wanted to weigh in on the controversial discussion surrounding the current surge in weapons and armor.

Many people speculate mass manipulation, but I really don't believe this to be the case. To me, it seems that prices are going up because demand is going up whilst supply is relatively the same as 2019.

Why is demand going up?
Covid19 brought in MANY new players. MORE THAN DOUBLE! (see graph below).

These new players level up VERY fast due to ED3 farming. They also gain gold fairly quick in the process. The end result? Many new players trying to buy noxious weapons etc. at the same time, driving the price up.




Why is supply the same?
Even though there is a surge in new players, it takes a lot of time for these new players to master the high level bosses. So for now, it's just the same pre-covid19 PVMer's bringing these items into the game. And they are making bank by the way.

So, essentially double demand for items while supply barely increases.

Once Covid goes away and the player base shrinks + newly retained players learn the high level bosses, I speculate that there will be a gradual crash in all high level items including rares. :)

19-Jan-2021 15:15:22 - Last edited on 19-Jan-2021 15:16:20 by Mortality

J R Kerr
May Member 2007

J R Kerr

Posts: 7,222 Rune Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
the whistle will not blow for anyone to jump back in the pool in 2021.
cov2 and cov3 mutations complicate our conditions, and yes I am a scientist (moreso geology than virology but still), but even pop culture epidemiology has been warning about this for 20 years to beware leaving the links between bats, civets, camels, pangolins, ferrets, minks, and birds.

now it is true that there are especially more english as second language players and we're all taking some very strange lumps because of their neophyte antics. its apparently well known that children are enslaved in venezuela to run tightly rehearsed skull tricking mobs, and thats not simply for rwt purpose, but because videos with millions of views exist of players attempting it which means google will pay their captors. the osrs players were able to vote for changes, use client plug ins, and immunize themselves to skulling better than eoc... ostensibly... but eoc has so many more passive buffs from totems, relics, quests, etc that in general we risk a lot less, and these frustrations have definitely affected overall gameplay.

one of the ones that doesnt baffle me is the rise of obsidian cape from like 60k to no kidding like 700k. its because the venezuelan child slaves can equip it, without much questing or mastery, and because its somewhat camoflauged for their skull tricking formations with shade robes and skin set to darkest etc.

I've been antigriefing and I disassembled a few of those before I was like "d'oh!" but so too am I glad to not put them back on the market for those people.

...and if Im the first person to tell you any of this I am truly sorry. I've talked to a couple people now and all of them already knew this stuff.
I have quit rsof because moderator found comments about darklight bonus damage on demons "off topic" for wildy flash mobs full of demons

19-Jan-2021 22:17:12

Mortality
May Member 2023

Mortality

Posts: 2,854 Adamant Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Conspiracy theories are usually formed to make sense of the actual complex socio and macro economic phenomena that occur. Sure there are gamblers, dicers, and scammers that can likely make a living off of Runescape. No doubt about that.

But for lurers and the like to affect all items at this magnitude, we would see hundreds of them online as opposed to the 2 or 3 per populated world we actually see.

In my view, a far more likely scenario would be bot farms pumping gold into the game for players to buy via RWT thus inflating all prices upon them very willingly hitting the +20% button on the GE to immediately get the item they want.

What are you referencing regarding the massive slave labor skull tricking farms? I checked out the skull tricking vids and the most popular one I could find for RS3 got 124K views, which by rough estimate translates into about $400 total over the course of the 4 years it's been up

20-Jan-2021 02:19:25 - Last edited on 20-Jan-2021 02:19:42 by Mortality

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