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How rare is Hazlemere Ring?

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Zee Kiln

Zee Kiln

Posts: 53 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
I think when it comes to drop rate, the gran fromage is HSR.

I’d like to try and figure out the drop rate of HSR, with the help of the community.

So, here is what we know.
1) You must first access the rare drop table when you kill a monster
2) When you roll the rare drop table you must hit the super rare drop table
3) When you roll the super rare drop table you must hit the ring table
4) When you roll the ring table you must hit the ring

The rare drop table is accessed via the gem table, but if the monster is sufficiently strong enough (80+ combat / 50+ slayer) the rare drop table is accessed directly, so we will not include the gem table in the equation.

I’ve created a picture to try and help people visualise this process. Using bandos as an example.


We already know the odds for steps 2 and 4 and with help from the community we can establish the odds for step 1 and 3.

So, the first unknown part of the equation is how likely you are to land on the rare drop table when you kill a monster.
This is where we will focus our data collection to begin with, and I call on all the slayer grinders/bossers/combat trainers out there to help. We can do this simply by recording how many times you get loot from the rare drop table over 1000 kills.

What to do if you want to help with step 1 (please help haha)

Criterea
1) Kill the same monster 1000 times
2) Kill a monster that can directly access the rare drop table
3) Be wearing a tier 4 luck ring or relic at all times
4) Have a reliable method of logging ALL the loot from kills
5) Take a screen shot of the recorded loot from the 1k kills and post it to this thread.

24-Jan-2021 00:22:49 - Last edited on 24-Jan-2021 00:44:22 by Zee Kiln

Zee Kiln

Zee Kiln

Posts: 53 Iron Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Step 2 (figuring out step 3 of the equation)

This part is going to require a behemoth effort from the community.
What we need is to record the data from 10000 super rare drop table rolls to establish how many times player lands on the ring table.

To gather this data what I have in mind is this.

People from the community who want to take part, contribute in sets of 1000 monster kills (to make it manageable for people). Everytime they complete 1000 kills they record all their super rare table drops obtained.

Criterea to contribute
1) Wear t4 luck ring or relic during experiment
2) Kill 1000 of a monster that has direct access to then rare drop table
3) The monster must not drop any items from the super rare table in its monster specific table
4) Have a reliable method of logging drops
5) Post the results to this thread

I’m not sure how long it would take to gather this set of data, we will have a better idea of how many monster will need to be killed once we complete step 1.

All suggestions are welcome.

Will also keep a log of contributors in this thread.

24-Jan-2021 00:22:58 - Last edited on 24-Jan-2021 00:37:50 by Zee Kiln

Mom
Apr Member 2012

Mom

Posts: 266 Silver Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
Didn't they release the equation at one point?

If you want to know how many HSR's are in game a good place to look would be the twitter account that posts whenever some global achievements happen. If you have the time, you could just count it that way, as a bot spits it out via tweet every time someone gets one. GL!

24-Jan-2021 07:40:51

Tenebri
Jan Member 2015

Tenebri

Posts: 39,201 Sapphire Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
i think 1k kills is way too little

for instance, my alt has killed 812k abyssal demons, and i didnt once get a blurberry on it. (unless i missed it)

so thats 812 contributions technically. with out getting anywhere closer to the result

but err good luck it would be interesting to know
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24-Jan-2021 13:53:34 - Last edited on 24-Jan-2021 13:56:41 by Tenebri

Lelouch Vi B
Jan Member 2017

Lelouch Vi B

Posts: 2,111 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
This is a bold mission that will probably not be done within the decade. Simply because, in order to get any sort of an accurate range of results, you're going to want at least 100 successful results, alongside the number of attempts required for each.

Any less than this, and your data will probably be incredibly inaccurate and just fall within its own margin of error.

You'll also run into the issue where a player will start a 200 abby demon task, manage to get the ring halfway through and then come here and report a drop in 100 kills. This does not account for the hundreds of thousands of other kills that other players got in that day, as this is cherry picking data from the successful trials.

In order to get an accurate idea of drops and to avoid this form of success bias, you'd need to acquire the monster kill data for every single player using the T4 luck at a RDT source for the entirety of the duration of your study. Without all of this data, you're not getting anywhere near accurate results.


TL;DR, If you want a drop rate with any sort of accuracy, you should probably just wait for Jagex to reveal it themselves.
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25-Jan-2021 01:23:11 - Last edited on 25-Jan-2021 01:23:53 by Lelouch Vi B

S 1 M O N
Sep Member 2016

S 1 M O N

Posts: 1,491 Mithril Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
HSR's from Serens (which i believe 90% of them come from) will pete-tong any sort of data you try to gather. Presumably, you're trying to determine the drop rate from killing monsters.

25-Jan-2021 05:55:51 - Last edited on 25-Jan-2021 05:56:11 by S 1 M O N

Tenebri
Jan Member 2015

Tenebri

Posts: 39,201 Sapphire Posts by user Forum Profile RuneMetrics Profile
mapichus said :
most hsr comes from qbd as it has guaranted 2 roll on rare drop table ( 1 normal roll + roll on super rare table (its at least 250 times more common than killing any other npc in the game)


however if you were to camp a monster for the hsr, you are better off going to seekers, as they have more rolls on the rdt per hour.
200m all RS3 on 7/3/19
1.2Billion overall Slayer xp / Ultimate slayer title

OSRS 2277/2277 Untrim slayer cape
Hail Satan, He loves for who you are.

25-Jan-2021 15:45:38

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