Would it be possible to get some drop rates on these shards from the activities where it's rng? Despite collecting many shards, some being very easy to obtain, if this just comes down to lottery level rng luck on an essential shard or two, I'd like to know before I bother.
I don't have information on the odds, but according to posts on Reddit the shards will have "bad luck mitigation". This means that the more time you spend skilling, the greater your chance of receiving a shard becomes.
Closing this as this is the "Future Updates" Forum, and now the the hat has been released, the
Recent Updates Forum
is the best place for feedback and discussion on this.